Season in Review: 2016 Baltimore Orioles
The O’s beat expectations in 2016, can they do it again in 2017?
The 2016 Baltimore Orioles have a secret; it’s closely guarded. They know that we know that they have a secret; they’re so intrepid about it they fashioned their logo with a coy bird who exudes I’m thinking of something, but I ain’t gonna’ tell ya.
THAT BIRD KNOWS SOMETHING! He isn’t talking, but if he did he may just tell us how in the world the O’s qualified for the postseason.
ZiPS projected the Orioles would finish under .500 at 74–88 — that’s Los Angeles Angels of 2000 E Gene Autry Way Anaheim, California 92806 territory. Like the Angels in the Outfield, the O’s benefited from some heavenly intervention; according to Baseball Prospectus’ adjusted standings, the Orioles were gifted five to six more wins than they deserved. They legitimately played better than their projections, but not 89 wins better. How’d they do it? Only that damn bird knows.
What Happened in 2016?
Heading into the 2016 season, the O’s big signings weren’t free agents plundered from another team— no, they were two players who many thought would be out the door. Catcher Matt Wieters joined the first legion of restricted free agents to accept a qualifying offer and Chris Davis —after smacking 47 home runs in the 2015 season — accepted a big backloaded contract. Orioles fans didn’t need name tags on Opening Day this year — the faces were mostly familiar.
There was one new face, however. In December, Baltimore sent Steve Clevenger — he of the famously lopsided Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop for Scott Feldman and Clevenger deal — to the Mariners for Mark Trumbo. Trumbo went on to blast 47 dingers from the middle of the O’s order while Clevenger went on to blast Black Lives Matters from the middle of the bullpen catcher’s bench.
The Orioles got off to a great start. On May 1 they were 14–10 and only a half game out of first behind the Boston Red Sox. On June 1, they were two games back of the Sox at 29–22; to open July they were four games up on the Sox at 47–32. When the first half closed, the O’s were on top of the AL East and 15 games above .500.
Baltimore’s first half success came in spite of their putrid pitching; at the break they ranked second to last in the AL in team ERA, team FIP, and team xFIP. To compete, the club knew it needed to bolster the starting staff. Unfortunately for the Orioles, they didn’t have the required assets to send the other way for impact talent; their farm system ranked 27th heading into 2016 according to Baseball America. The O’s did the best they could and sent some inconsequential pieces to the Mariners for Wade Miley. We wrote about Miley at the time:
29-year-old Wade Miley is a left-handed starting pitcher who is like the rice cream I bought. It sounded like a sensible calorie budgeting alternative to the richness of ice cream, but it doesn’t taste great and because I don’t like wasting food it sticks around in my freezer. Miley had his best season four years ago with the Arizona Diamondbacks. He finished that season with a 3.33 ERA/3.15 FIP/3.75 xFIP and walked less than two per nine innings. He followed that up with three vanilla ~200 inning seasons as a starter. This season? Rice cream. In his 2016 Mariners campaign to date he boasts a 4.98/4.79/4.34, walking 2.75/9 and his 1.45 HR/9 is 19th worst among qualifying AL leaders.
Miley threw 73.1 innings in the second half and managed to move up to plain vanilla dairy-based ice cream status with a 3.94 FIP and 3.44 xFIP and a 5.28 ERA — vanilla, BUT NO SPRINKLES! The O’s were hoping their biggest midseason move would be promoting young fireballer Dylan Bundy from the bullpen to the rotation. On Bundy:
Out of the pen, Bundy has been tossing a fastball that hits 97 mph regularly and sits 94 which he features 64% of the time. He mixes in a curveball and change nearly equally to get hitters out. Unfortunately, getting hitters out hasn’t been the case. Hitters are putting up a near-All-Star season against him, hitting .303 with a .785 OPS. Struggling to get hitters out proved to be true in Bundy’s first start today. Against a poorly performing Rays lineup, Bundy got hit and hit hard in his 3.1 innings. He gave four runs, all earned, on five hits including three home runs. He walked more (4) than he struck out (3).
Bundy disappointed by posting a 4.52 ERA and 5.24 FIP. The youngster who did take a step forward was the other prized arm, Kevin Gausman. The 25-year-old posted a K rate of nearly 9 per nine innings with a 3.10 ERA/3.95 FIP/3.78 xFIP during the second half of his campaign. Those were numbers good enough to challenge Chris Tillman for top of the rotation status; after experiencing some shoulder pain, Tillman struggled down the stretch. Tillman’s numbers suffered: 4.45 ERA, 4.20 FIP and 4.88 xFIP.
It’s conceivable those rotation numbers were a consequence of the receiving skills behind the plate. Catcher Matt Wieters is more known for his bat than his work behind the plate. Baseball Prospectus quantifies the skill of catcher framing with its FRAA statistics — Wieters ranks near the bottom of MLB catchers in stealing strikes. A catcher who can’t sell a strike to an umpire isn’t doing favors for a young staff.
The offense was the Orioles’ saving grace this season. Trumbo’s 47 home runs led the league, but even that was only good for a 2.2 WAR. Trumbo, like others on the roster, was a two outcome hitter who didn’t offer any value on defense. Trumbo and first baseman Chris Davis combined for 85 homers this season…and 389 strikeouts. The anti-Trumbo/Davis was the O’s biggest star, Manny Machado. Manny tracked down baseballs like a blood hound:
He also hit: Machado finished with a .294/.343/.533 slash and was worth 6.4 wins. Ultimately, the offense was good enough to outhit all of the team’s flaws. The O’s were rewarded with a Wild Card game against their division rivals, the Toronto Blue Jays.
The stage was set for a bout between between two teams who hit the ball out of the park; the Jays finished third in the AL in home runs and the O’s first. The game would become a part of postseason power hitting canon. Jose Bautista assaulted the first baseball, pulling one deep to left.
Trumbo matched him with a two-run blast to take the lead 2–1. The Jays scratched a run across in the bottom of the fifth when Ezequiel Carrera singled to score Michael Saunders. The game would head to extras and ultimately a three run walk-off homer from Edwin Encarnacion finally ended the O’s magical run.
O’s manager Buck Showalter allowed Encarnacion, who led the Jays in homers with 42 and slashed .263/.357/.529, to face Ubaldo Jimenez — Jimenez had yet to record an out after letting two reach. The game was on the line and Showalter still had the game’s best reliever, Zach Britton, available. Britton’s 0.54 ERA, 1.94 FIP, 2.09 xFIP was so good he had been discussed much of the second half as a Cy Young candidate. Britton never toed the rubber and the O’s are now home preparing for next season.
What to expect in 2017?
The Orioles head into 2017 with a ton of questions. Some good fortune brought them a taste of the postseason, but no organization can afford to count on that year after year. Trumbo, Wieters, and Pedro Alvarez are all free agents and the farm system didn’t improve on being one of the bottom five in all of MLB. The farm won’t get much better with a low 2017 draft pick and any restricted free agent, in a weak free agent class, will cost them their first-round pick and the slot money that goes with it.
The Orioles do retain the core of their rotation and closer Zach Britton. Gausman and Bundy are still developing and possess ceilings as top of the rotation guys. Tillman had a fine bounceback season. If there is optimism in Baltimore for next season it should be that the Orioles staff might finally be ready to become one of the best in the division — pitching deep into games and handing the ball off to their elite closer.
The Red Sox figure to be in the mix for the AL East title for quite some time; they feature young cost-controlled ballplayers across the diamond and came into the season with the fourth-best farm system. The New York Yankees flipped their older core for some young players and managed to stay relevant in spite of it; they could be fast risers. The good news for O’s fans is Toronto may have to let key contributors Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Michael Saunders walk as they reach free agency this year.
2017 may be the season where the front office’s front man Dan Duquette feels the pain of ignoring the future. Most of the organization’s top prospects are reaching post-prospect age. The most obvious need-filler is Chance Sisco, a catcher who posted a sparkling .319/.405/.423 slash in the minors this year. Unfortunately Cisco has only played four games above Double-A; the converted shortstop is probably a year away. That gives Wieters some leverage if the Orioles want to retain his services.
Duquette will be forced to be heavily involved in signing Trumbo and Wieters — there aren’t any in-house options. If they don’t, 2017 may be the beginning of a an organizational teardown with eyes set on the future. Another option is to court other available free agents — Edwin Encarnacion says hi.
Orioles fans are used to facing the unknown. Season after season the O’s find a way to compete despite underperforming in some major statistical categories. If they outhit their opponents this season, maybe next year their budding youngsters shutdown rival lineups. The only one who knows for sure is that bird.
