Season in Review: 2016 New York Yankees
New and old converged for one unique Yankee season.
In New York City, buildings scrape the sky. They take years to build, careful planning and coordination across many teams of different skill sets; there are no shortcuts. They inch toward the sky, story by story. The same has also been true of building a winning baseball organization. Nothing turns the stomach of a fanbase more than the word rebuild; a project measured in calendar years. Architects, however, may want to pick the brain of New York Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman; the Yankees may have built a tower in the time it takes to flip a house.
The team entered the season with many aging stars in Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran, and Alex Rodriguez; Fangraphs predicted the 2016 Yankees would finish just over .500 at 83–79. The Yankees are nearing the Fangraphs bullseye with an 83–76 record to-date. That’s the sort of middling record baseball rewards with no postseason and a side of crummy draft slot; a mediocre death spiral teasing fans with a Wild Card berth while the impending doom of rising arbitration salaries looms.
What happened in 2016?
The Yankees signaled they believed their veteran roster could compete by trading for elite closer Aroldis Chapman (Cincinnati Reds) and middle-infielder Starlin Castro (Chicago Cubs) before the start of the season. The sprinkle of hope served to offer cover to the narrative this may be embattled 41-year-old star Alex Rodriguez’s last season — a tenuous relationship between the rabid local media and Yankees ownership left fans wondering how they’d send him out.
By the beginning of May, the hope shifted to panic and Rodriguez’s cover had reached full erosion — a trend that would become the season’s theme. On May 4, the Yankees were setting in the cold dank AL East cellar, staring up at everyone — including the Tampa Bay Rays — with a 9–16 record. Their Pythagorean W-L% of .381 was only better than the Minnesota Twins and A-Rod was hitting .194 . Rodriguez would head to the disabled list that same day and the announcement reached critical mass for national and local media types to detonate the dormant narrative-bomb that the Yankees should ditch the radioactive Rodriguez, an inevitable decision compounding the dense weight felt in manager Joe Girardi’s clubhouse. The Yankees were losing, and for the first time in recent memory, mulling whether or not to sell off its veterans and start over; the A-Rod noise risked dividing possible short-timer vets and the few youngsters who Girardi would have to manage for years.
All of those tensions could be relaxed with winning — winning cures all. And the Yankees did just that, despite playing in a division that featured three of the the AL’s top offenses in the Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, and Baltimore Orioles. Led by potential Hall of Famer Carlos Beltran, who would finish his final Yankees season with a .301/.342/.538 slash and 21 home runs, The Yankees managed to get two games above .500 a week after the All-Star break. At nine percent odds, the Wild Card dangled like a carrot as the trade deadline inched closer. Hope is an irresistible mistress, but to go for it with so many tradeable assets in aging players like 39-year-old Beltran and expendable bullpen pieces, the Yankees would have been risking falling into the cycle of mediocrity by rolling the dice; they had to pick a lane.
Within a few days of the the deadline, the Yankees turned their blinker on; they merged into the future lane. It started by dealing Aroldis Chapman, one of the best relievers in the game (2.01 ERA, 2.38 xFIP, 12.6 K/9) to the Chicago Cubs — an expendable piece on a team featuring Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances at the back of the bullpen. Chapman was acquired for pennies on the prospect dollar from the Reds when the Yankees front office decided it could stomach reports Chapman choked his girlfriend and intimated her by firing off his gun in the garage. Their steely stomachs paid off. The Cubs sent minor league shortstop and Baseball America’s 27th-ranked Gleyber Torres and some other solid pieces — including major leaguer and former Yankee RHP Adam Warren — back their way; a nice return after giving up only four low-level prospects to the Reds just seven months earlier.
The trade traffic would continue to flow just a week later and Cashman was in the driver’s seat. Deciding to build the bullpen around Betances, who won’t be a free agent until 2020, the Yankees sent away their other prized lefty bullpen arm in Andrew Miller (1.31 ERA, 1.30 xFIP, 15.24 K/9). Miller, who had one more year of control than Chapman, nabbed the Yankees two more BA Top 100 prospects in outfielder Clint Frazier and LHP Justus Sheffield (Justus is the nephew of former Yankees great, Gary Sheffield).
Cashman wasn’t finished there. He closed on his flip by sending Beltran to the Texas Rangers for their first-round pick — fourth overall — a season ago in prospect Dillon Tate; a 6' 2", 165-pound 22-year-old right-hander who features a fastball between 95–98 mph and a wipe-out slider, but is still a project at the lower levels after dominating in college. In the end it only took a couple of bullpen pieces and a veteran who wasn’t under contract for 2017 to add four top 100 prospects to the three they already had — the most of any team in the majors.
By the time the deadline had passed and the sell-off was complete, the panic and hope season relented into the calm of acceptance — winning was an after-thought and development was forefront. But there would be a third act!
Yankees fans would say goodbye to their past and fall in love with the future. Not long after the deadline, the Yankees announced they would call up their second ranked prospect in backstop Gary Sanchez and Alex Rodriguez would retire — denying number 13 of ever reaching 700 home runs as a Yankee. Though Rodriguez topped Willie Mays for fourth on the all-time home run list and recorded his 3,000th hit, the rookie catcher would ultimately receive the most attention for making history and with it the pendulum swinging back to hope.
Sanchez exploded onto the scene, belting a record 20 home runs in just 51 career games. To date he is slashing .303/.378/.672, displaying the promising monumental power (ISO .369) and a mature approach at the plate with 10.4 BB% and more than acceptable 24.8 K%. Sanchez would lead a new crop of pinstriped rookies. Two more, Tyler Austin and Aaron Judge, were called up the day after Rodriguez’s retirement party and also made history by becoming the first newly-minted major leaguers to homer back-to-back in their first at-bats — hastening the fading memory of A-Rod’s tenure.
Starlin Castro, who had often experienced coldness from many Cubs fans during his time in Chicago, has been warmly accepted in New York after posting a second half slash of .296/.317/.498 before being sidelined with a hamstring injury in mid-September. The 26-year-old second baseman led Sanchez and the new blood to within 2.5 games of a Wild Card spot. In one season, the Yankees went from middling contenders with a middling farm system (ranked 17th by BA prior to the season) and aging starters to middling contenders with a bountiful farm and young cost-controlled starters — hope had returned!
It wasn’t meant to be. The regular season calendar started running out of days and the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Orioles pulled away. The Yankees were stubborn, however. Their arch-rival Red Sox sought to celebrate clinching the AL East on pinstripe soil — a feat the team has never been pulled off during its long history in a ballpark bearing the name Yankee Stadium. There’s a first time for everything and Wednesday seemed like it would be it. Down 3–0 in the bottom of the 9th and facing elimination, the Yankees trotted their remade lineup out to face Boston’s closer, Craig Kimbrel.
Kimbrel struggled with command and gave up a single and a walk. With two on, the stage was set for Sanchez to be the hero and tie the game; such a moment would have been symbolic of the season. But Sanchez walked, and McCann followed him to do the same — walking in a run. With the bases loaded and down 3–1, Mark Teixeira — one of the game’s greatest switch-hitters who announced he would retire after 2016 — hit a walk-off grand slam, the first walk-off of his career; one last go for the Yankees’ old guard. However, It wasn’t enough to stop the Red Sox from celebrating; The Orioles beat the Blue Jays, yielding the AL East to Boston — the Red Sox sprayed champagne that night in Yankee stadium, but not with the satisfaction of a win. A day later the Yankees beat the Red Sox one last time, but the Orioles played spoiler again, beating the Blue Jays again and officially dashing the Yankees playoff hopes in 2016.
What To Expect in 2017?
To finish as strongly as the Yankees did with a young unproven squad is not the norm. However, the upside and optimism comes at a price; the Yankees won’t have a protected first-round pick. It means if they sign any restricted free agent in the offseason, they’ll lose their first-rounder and the slot money coming with it — the current CBA just isn’t friendly to this sort of quick turnaround. The loss of a pick could cause Cashman pause about trying to fill holes with free agents who cost big money and a pick.
How many holes will there be? The Yankees talent flip didn’t come at the cost of their rotation pieces. Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda are controlled through 2017 (longer if he doesn’t opt-out) and 2018, respectively. Pineda ranks 10th in all of MLB in Baseball Prospectus’ pitcher WAR (pWARP) and Tanaka ranks 26th — a fine 1–2 punch. Adam Warren, C.C. Sabathia, and Luis Severino, figure to compete for various slots. The Yankees could give 25-year-old Dietrich Enns an opportunity to compete for a rotation spot. Enns is a 6' 1" RHP who eclipsed 135 innings between Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. He dominated at both levels, posting 1.93 ERA and 3.13 FIP at Trenton and a 1.52 ERA, 3.52 FIP at Scranton with K rates of 9.51 and 6.92 respectively. Ideally they’d add another pitcher from outside to slide in behind their widely regarded ace, Tanaka. If Cashman covets his first round pick he’ll have to add an arm through a trade and cash in some of the prospect chips; expect to hear about Chris Sale because…well…it’s New York.
The infield is well set with Castro, Didi Gregorious, Chase Headley, and Greg Bird, with Brian McCann and Sanchez splitting time at DH and catcher. 21-year-old top shortstop prospect Jorge Mateo didn’t take a big leap forward at High-A this year, slashing .254/.306/.379 — making his MLB trajectory at best 2018; he could push Gregorius to third.
In the outfield, Judge will get a long leash to prove he’ll hold court in right field, and veterans Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury can each roam center and left. The highest ranked prospect in the Yankees system who is nearly major league ready is outfielder Clint Frazier. Frazier came over in the Miller deal and already has 129 Triple-A plate appearances. His 108 at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre showed he won’t likely be ready to compete for a job out of Spring Training; there he slashed .228/.278/.396 and struck out 27.8 percent of the time. Frazier can handle center, but is a better fit on at the corners. If he takes a step forward in ’17, he could make one of Gardner or Ellsbury available in a trade — Ellsbury’s fat contract being the obstacle.
Next year’s team may take a step forward, bypassing the extreme losing most rebuilds suffer through. The Blue Jays no longer control many of their core pieces heading into 2017 and could make the Wild Card much more attainable. But the focus will also be on developing those young major leaguers into everyday players and matriculating some of those elite prospects who haven’t seen time in The Show. 2017 should provide for an exciting organization-wide season and more tangible hope for October glory in the Bronx.
In a very short time, Cashman managed to put together a young competitive team while filling its farm system with top talent—like pouring the foundation while living in the house. Young talent not only brings hope, but also status — free agents signing long-term deals love to sign with organizations appearing as though they’ll compete in the near and longterm. When Cashman sent his veterans out the door for younger future pieces he said he envisioned creating an “uber-team”—one competitive for a long stretch of time. He seems to have done so in as much time it takes an uber to reach your door. Securing a Wild Card in 2017 may still be out of reach, but it could be as soon as 2018 — an offseason littered with top free agent talent like Bryce Harper and Clayton Kershaw — when the last story of this rebuild is laid into place. That year could return the Yankees to their rightful place as regular contenders for the AL East and beyond.
