Should We Believe in this Pittsburgh Pirates Run?

Before a rough weekend, the Pirates won 12 of 14 to thrust themselves back into the NL Central race.

Casey Boguslaw
Jul 24, 2017 · 5 min read
Ivan Nova is the only mainstay in the Pirates rotation who didn’t improve his Barrel FIP in the last month, a large reason for the success the team has been seeing.

The 2017 NL Central race was supposed to be pay-no-mind all season. The defending champion Chicago Cubs were not predicted to have much of a threat from any of the other four teams in the division.

But of course, baseball never works quite the way we plan it.

First it was the Cincinnati Reds who came out of the gate hot. On May 7, it was the Reds who sat atop the division with a 17–14 record. Of course they’ve gone 24–43 since, and now sit at the bottom.

The Milwaukee Brewers have been baseball’s biggest surprise all season. As of the morning of July 24, they still sit in first in the NL Central, putting together an out-of-nowhere 53–48 record.

But Milwaukee has lost seven of eight (including three to the down-and-out Philadelphia Phillies), and the Cubs — who have not been alone in first place since May 26 — have tied them in first after being down 5.5 games nine days ago.

But another Central team has been sneaking their way back in the race. The Pittsburgh Pirates have vaulted up from the cellar to only three games back in the NL Central. Pittsburgh was eight games behind one week ago, almost a certain seller at the July 31 deadline, and one short week has changed everything. But should it?

The Pirates bullpen has been great all year. They have been barreled up the least out of anyone in MLB at 2.25 percent, even lower than the Los Angeles Dodgers’ 2.32. This has been a steady asset, and was more than likely going to be the pieces Pittsburgh sold off if it came to it. Their continued success is no different now than it was when the Pirates were 37–46; we can throw them out for the catalyst behind the recent run.

The Pirates offense simply hasn’t been very potent this season. Specifically looking at the barrel statistic, Pittsburgh does not have many hitters who have put a lot of good contact on baseballs this season. While looking up and down the roster, no notable power hitters jump off the page, but it’s still remarkable how few barrels the team has hit this season.

The recent run has seen the team putting more balls hit in play hard. While the last two weeks wouldn’t put them on the top of any leaderboards for that timeframe, it’s still uplifting to see the team rise in this area, and it has also pushed up their run scoring.

On June 1, Pittsburgh was only scoring 3.9 runs a game, well below the current 4.7 MLB average. After Friday’s 13-run explosion, the Pirates have now moved up to 4.3 runs a game.

Perhaps the biggest reason for the increase in offense is seeing their ex-MVP finally return back to form after a year-and-a-half slump where people were starting to question if he would ever return to form.

On May 23 (highlighted on the chart above), manager Clint Hurdle made the decision his lineup needed an adjustment and moved McCutchen down in the order after hitting third for the first six weeks of the season. The change worked for McCutchen, now mostly hitting sixth, as his numbers started rising rapidly.

On June 27 (also highlighted), Hurdle had seen enough to move his star back to the heart of the order… and McCutchen has continued to reward him (after a short immediate slump).

Now with Starling Marte returning to the lineup after serving his 80-game PED suspension, the offense looks like it’s ready to start hitting on all cylinders.

Of course, baseball is cruel and Gregory Polanco pulled up with a strained hamstring Friday night and was placed on the 10-day disabled list Saturday.

Hopefully the offense can continue to function without Polanco, who helps in the outfield as much as he does at the plate. With Marte’s return, the strong defensive outfield was back to full strength as well, but now they will have to dip into their reserve once again.


The offense has improved, but a larger reason for the turnaround is the starting pitching. As shown in the cover photo, each pitcher has taken a dip in their Barrel FIP outside of Ivan Nova (who struggled mightily, again, on Sunday afternoon).

Outside of Nova, Gerrit Cole has pitched more like the ace status he’s earned through his career. Cole has had an up-and-down season, but the numbers are pointed in the right direction. He has allowed no more than two runs in each of his last three starts, striking out 22 and only walking one.

Jameson Taillon, who could be Cole’s running mate in the rotation for the near future, has pitched as such. Since returning from his serious health concerns, Taillon has been very solid, putting up the best numbers in the rotation.

Chad Kuhl and Trevor Williams have been mid-rotation quality, but each has pitched better as of late. Both Kuhl and Williams got tripped up at Coors — as did pretty much everyone else in a Pirates uniform. The six-game winning streak was flipped on its head as they did not play their best baseball over the weekend.


So what’s to believe? The offense has improved… slightly. The starting pitching has improved… slightly. The roster was back to full health until Polanco’s injury over the weekend, and the impact of that is yet to be seen.

The Pirates were essentially written off when the San Francisco Giants swept a series at PNC right before the All-Star break. Now after pulling themselves back to relevance, they have the chance to right a wrong as they begin a three-game series in San Fran Monday.

With one week left before the trade deadline, playing a week of games against San Francisco and San Diego could offer the best possible outcomes. Take six or seven games — as a good team should be able to — and you continue to be right in the race. Lose more than you win… and you know exactly where you stand this season.

    Casey Boguslaw

    Written by

    Proud father, husband, brother, son. Spend my free time talking about baseball. Outfield defense FTW. Embrace the Barrel!

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