Team Bullpen Review

A brief look at the best and worst bullpens thus far in 2017.

Previously I have outlined the methodology I use to model the value of relief pitchers as well as used the predictive equation in order to evaluate the options for teams after the trade deadline. The chart below takes a sightly different approach to ranking the bullpens.

The major change in my analysis this time around is with that final column xADREIP. In previous rankings I’ve looked at just pitchers who qualified as pitching in high-leverage situations. However, this time it is based off every pitcher in the bullpen. It is a weighted average based off number of innings thrown for the entirety of the team’s pen. This number is a proxy for team bullpen talent while the ADREIP column is based off actual performance.

The top five in ADREIP has many of the teams that one would expect with the Colorado Rockies, New York Yankees, Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Boston Red Sox leading the way. The Red Sox pen has easily been the best, led by the insane performance of Craig Kimbrel. Kimbrel has posted an ADREIP of 0.6744 which only trails Zach Britton’s 2016 for most valuable reliever performance since 2012.

On the other end we can see many of the teams with the worst bullpens have been the worst teams in the game. The Washington Nationals with their bullpen issues have had the sixth worst pen in all of baseball, which unsurprisingly has been a story all season long. They have been a dominant team that could be rivaling the Dodgers for best team in baseball if their bullpen was even average. However, thus far their three deadline additions have been the team’s three best relievers, by far.

When looking at bullpen talent levels we once again see the Indians, Red Sox, and Dodgers among the top five but now they are joined by the Houston Astros and surprisingly the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels are currently fighting for a Wild Card spot and may need to rely on what on paper looks to be a surprising strength. The team does not have any one superstar pitcher who stands out, but relies instead on several above-average arms. Blake Parker and Cam Bedrosian are the headliners with Parker rating as the best of the bunch.

The Astros pen was always supposed to be a strength of the team as they made headlines with their use of Chris Devenski early in the season, but James Hoyt has been the team’s best reliever by the predicted numbers. Hoyt however, has not looked as well by the actual numbers costing his team fractions of a run per inning.

An interesting development out of the Astros pen is that based off both actual and projected numbers, Joe Musgrove has been fantastic out of the pen in a small sample. Among all relievers since 2012 with more than ten innings out of the pen, Musgrove’s 2017 xADREIP ranks 15th. While the sample is quite small, the early results suggest the Astros may have found themselves another elite bullpen option to pair with what already is a deep and talented bullpen.

Speaking of deep bullpens, the Dodgers made a series of smaller moves at the deadline, adding Tony Cingrani and Tony Watson but their biggest addition this season may be the reinvented Brandon Morrow. The hard throwing righty has been excellent out of the bullpen, coming as the third most valuable reliever on the team. However his xADREIP suggests he should be pitching in even higher leverage situations going forward. His 0.85 adjusted gmLI is fifth on the team among relievers with more than 10 innings. His xADREIP ranks second on the team just slightly below Kenley Jansen. Morrow appears to have found a way to revive his once promising career.

For access to the individual player data used for this analysis, click here.