The Blue Jays Are All Out of Offense
The Blue Jays best offensive weapon has become their greatest offensive weakness.
In 2016 the Toronto Blue Jays were an offensive powerhouse. They scored 759 runs, good for fifth in the American League. Their teamwide 102 wRC+ was good for seventh in MLB. They were fourth in the majors with 221 home runs, just four short of the second place St. Louis Cardinals. They were 11th in the majors as they slugged .426 on their way to a Wild Card berth and a ALCS appearance.
And yet, you would be hard pressed to find a team that has fallen further in the offensive rankings this year than the Blue Jays. In the categories listed above, the Blue Jays rank last in runs (28), last in wRC+ (57), 29th in home runs (6) and last in slugging percentage (.288).
Think about that for a moment. They dropped 25 spots in runs and home runs, 23 for wRC+, and 19 spots down for slugging percentage. Every aspect of the Blue Jays has seen an extreme dip in offensive statistics. Offensive Runs Above Average (Off) had the Blue Jays 8.5 runs above average in 2016, but 17.9 runs below average this year. The only team worse so far this year in Off is the Colorado Rockies.
They rank at or near the bottom in every offensive category you can think of, including the conventional stats like batting average (last) and on-base percentage (last). They have high K% (23.7 percent, fifth highest in the league) and have only stolen one base.
No team has been worse than the Blue Jays in terms of offense. For a team who relies on offense, especially the home run, their franchise worst start to the 2017 season (2–9) makes sense. They have averaged just 2.54 runs per game. It’s hard to win games when a pitching staff ERA of under 3.00 isn’t even enough for your offense.
For the last few years, the long ball has been a key part of the Blue Jays offense. They hit a lot of home runs in the regular season last year, averaging over 1.36 per game. This year, that number is 0.54 home runs per game. Even in the postseason, the Blue Jays hit 10 home runs against the Texas Rangers. Yet, when they fell to the Cleveland Indians, they only managed two long balls. Even in the Wild Card game, the team was able to hit two home runs.
When the Blue Jays hit a home run in 2016, their win-loss record was 80–39. When they failed to hit a home run, their record was 9–34. When they hit a home run, their winning percentage was 67.2 percent. When they did not, it fell to a little over 20.9 percent. Not only is that a huge gap normally, but an average team in 119 games hitting home runs would go 70–49. The Blue Jays were ten wins above average when a player went deep.
Without home runs, the Blue Jays offense has been reduced to a small ball game they are not used to nor capable of running successfully. They are hitting almost a home run less per game this year so far, and thus the offense is struggling.
So what are the reasons behind this major decrease in home runs? While they are just 11 games in, Josh Donaldson has only had 35 plate appearances due to a calf injury. Yet he has two of the team’s six home runs. With Donaldson out of the lineup for a few games, the home runs have suffered, but he was been an effective part of the lineup when he was healthy. With Donaldson on the 10-day DL though, others need to pick up the slack.
Kendrys Morales capped off the Blue Jays second win of the season with a walk-off home run, his second long ball of the season. The newly acquired Jay has accounted for a third of home runs hit by Toronto, and is tied for the team lead. The other two homers came from Troy Tulowitzki and Justin Smoak.
Yet sluggers José Bautista and Russell Martin have not broken out this year and hit their first home runs. Nor has the rest of the team besides the four mentioned. And in the end, this Blue Jays team thrives on the long ball. Without it, the offense has collapsed.
As the phrase goes, “Chicks dig the longball.” Home runs are sexy, and for years the Blue Jays have been one of the sexiest teams around.
But not anymore.
