The Fit: AL Central Foes Each Add Needed Starters

One game a part in the standings, Kansas City and Minnesota both acquire an NL starting pitcher Monday, but the moves come with a different feel to them.

Casey Boguslaw
Jul 25, 2017 · 6 min read
Garcia’s last three starts — against probable playoff teams — improved his overall season numbers.

This Minnesota Twins season has had plenty of similarities to the 2015 campaign. They weren’t predicted to be in the race either year and both fell during what was/is seemingly a rebuild. But just as in 2015, with the trade deadline rapidly approaching, the Twins are in the thick of it and are expected to be buyers.

In 2015, Minnesota only made one move at the deadline — they traded for then 31-year-old relief pitcher Kevin Jepsen. Jepsen was fairly awful for the Twins; he allowed seven home runs in 30 2/3 innings after the trade, a 6.16 ERA. These days, Jepsen is trying to make his way back to the big leagues, currently in the Washington organization.

The one small move in 2015 was perhaps not what most teams would have done in Minnesota’s position at the deadline, but with the majority of the Twins’ future still in the minor leagues, the urgency was non-existent.

The Twins ultimately missed the postseason in 2015, and then lost 103 games in 2016. There were few who expected them to bounce back to relevance this season, but as of July 25, they are 3.5 games behind Cleveland in the division and only two games out of the Wild Card.

By the numbers, the Twins being in contention doesn’t seem to correlate. Outside of some above-average defensive numbers — specifically the outfield — and base running, Minnesota doesn’t excel in a lot of areas.

They don’t hit the ball hard (3.92 barrel rate), don’t hit for production (96 wRC+), but most damning, they don’t pitch well (5.06 team Barrel FIP worst in the American League).

For the first few months of the season, the Twins did seem to have found a surprise ace in Ervin Santana, but due to his lengthy career, most found the success hard to believe. Lo and behold, Santana has thrown to a 4.77 BFIP (4.25 ERA) in the last 30 days (five starts).

José Berríos had a rough go when called up in 2016, but this season he seemed to correct some of his flaws and had a very strong first few starts. But he has also struggled lately, putting up a 5.18 BFIP (5.26 ERA) in his last 30 days (five starts).

The rest of the rotation has been a revolving door of bad-to-real-bad starts. Fourteen different players have taken the mound as a starting pitcher this season for the Twins, and outside of Adalberto Mejia (brought in last year in the Eduardo Núñez trade), not a single one of them has stuck. To put things in perspective, on Monday, the ageless Bartolo Colón made his second start of the season for the Twins.

There were probably some people who wouldn’t have blamed the Twins for doing nothing at the deadline. Some fans would have been upset, and more fans would have been unhappy if the Twins did possibly the correct thing and sell off some of the extraneous pieces to support the future core. But the numbers don’t usually lie, and this Twins team as currently constructed will probably not make the postseason, and wouldn’t have a chance at sniffing the World Series.

Possibly in an attempt to please a segment of fans, the Twins brought in some help for their struggling rotation Monday. Jaime García, the left-hander, who played the majority of his career with the St. Louis Cardinals before going to the Atlanta Braves this past offseason will now help supplement a pitching staff with their small hopes on making it to October.

García will not fix all of the Twins issues, but he will improve the staff. As shown in the cover image, García has pitched well as of late, and is putting up numbers better than any current Twins starter.

But, this does feel like a half-measure. Some kudos can be given to the Twins front office for doing something, but without more to follow, the needle barely moves. García, a career NL-er, will now take a run in the AL for the first time. Always a pitcher with extreme potential, he hasn’t quite hit that ceiling just yet. It would be hard to see García making that big of an impact this season in the Twin Cities.

A whole lot more blue was added to this chart on Monday.

Two games ahead of the Twins sits the Kansas City Royals, in an entirely different position as a team. Much ink has been spent discussing how 2017 is the “last go” for this Royals core who made back-to-back World Series, winning one.

With so many impending free agents, a lot of pundits thought Kansas City would sell this year to try to get something for many of the players who almost certainly won’t be back in 2018. But still very much in the thick of it, the Royals front office made it clear on Monday the team will remain in tact for another run at a championship.

The addition of starting pitcher Trevor Cahill from San Diego can be seen as comparable to the Twins adding García. Although Cahill has pitched in the AL before, he is another pitcher who has excelled in the other league this season, and could face some regression as he moves back over.

Also like the Twins with García, Cahill is pitching better than anyone on his new team. That may be a touch unfair, as Cahill missed six weeks this season due to injury. But Danny Duffy, who is pitching very well — his 4.15 ERA in the last 30 days vastly improved by a 3.16 BFIP — has also missed time this season.

If you’re curious about Jason Vargas, no further explanation is needed than his 6.24 BFIP (6.86 ERA) in the last 30 days (four starts).

The Royals pitching hasn’t been as ugly as the Twins — they’ve only needed 11 starters to get through this season thus far — but a 4.40 team Barrel FIP is more aligned with the rest of the league. Despite only being two games better than Minnesota, the addition of Cahill feels like a bigger addition due to helping an already average asset.

The other obvious reason why this feels like much more than a half-measure in KC is the acquisitions of two solid bullpen arms in Ryan Buchter and Brandon Maurer.

The Royals bullpen struggled mightily out of the gate, a far cry from the Kansas City teams from the past few years. They were walking everyone and were a big reason they got off to a 10–20 start. They have performed much better recently, and these two solid pickups should add to a team strength.

In the year 2017, when it seems like if you don’t have a super bullpen, you’re not doing it right, the Royals are now playing along. With a resurgent Joakim Soria, an excellent comeback story in Mike Minor, and the hopes of getting last year’s Kelvin Herrera back at some point, it will be as hard as it is anywhere in coming back against the Royals.


The Twins and Royals both made needed moves on Monday if they were continuing to want to contend in the AL Central. In fact, the Cleveland Indians almost have to respond as their margin above those two teams is ever-so slim.

But, the Royals promise seems much higher than the Twins, even without the additional resources added to their bullpen.

And it makes sense, Minnesota will continue to plan for the future and their trade Monday does not divert far from that. Kansas City’s future is far from certain, and most likely bleaker, so they decided to make a move for the present.

RO Baseball

Casey Boguslaw

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Proud father, husband, brother, son. Spend my free time talking about baseball. Outfield defense FTW. Embrace the Barrel!

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