The Long-Awaited Steven Souza Jr. Breakout?
After two years of struggles, 2017 may finally be the year for Steven Souza Jr. to put it all together.
The date was December 18, 2014. That day will forever be remembered as the day that the courses of three franchises was forever changed. With one trade, three different teams ended up in three very different positions.
At the forefront of that trade were the San Diego Padres and outfielder Wil Myers. Fresh off the acquisition of Matt Kemp, the Padres, under new general manager AJ Preller, were attempting to position themselves as true contenders for the first time in a number of years. Although Myers wouldn’t be the final piece in that puzzle, as the Padres acquired Justin Upton and signed James Shields later in the offseason, he was a microcosm of what the Padres were trying to do.
Alongside Myers the Padres acquired catcher Ryan Hanigan, left-hander Jose Castillo, and right-hander Gerardo Reyes from the Tampa Bay Rays. In return, the Padres sent right-hander Burch Smith, first baseman Jake Bauers, and catcher Rene Rivera to the Rays. Although this is a lot of moving parts, the most important part of the trade came at the end. Originally, the Padres sent the package of shortstop Trea Turner and right-hander Joe Ross to the Rays as an additional part of this trade. However, the Rays decided they were better off without that pair, shipping them off to Washington for the combination of Steven Souza Jr. and left-hander Travis Ott.
Since that trade initially went down, nearly two and a half years ago, the Padres have been constantly ridiculed for giving up Ross and Turner for Myers. Despite Myers coming into his own in 2016, Turner very loudly became one of the most electrifying players in all of baseball during his debut last season. Things have been less positive for Ross, but the Nationals still came out on the best side of that trade, at least in the short term.
With all this being said, it seems that the Rays have not gotten the same amount of criticism that the Padres have gotten, even though they are the ones who traded Turner and Ross for Souza Jr. Myers is a potential face of the franchise player in San Diego, a talent that could lead the next great Padres team. Since that trade, Souza Jr. has been a below replacement level player that has been plagued by injuries and inconsistency.
After a mediocre first two seasons in Tampa Bay, 2017 may just be the year where all that changes. And with that, the Rays may, for the first time, not fully regret that fateful trade made three Decembers ago.
In 2015, Souza Jr. played 110 games with his new team. In those 110 games, Souza Jr. slashed .225/.318/.399 with a wRC+ of 102 and an fWAR of 1.5. The biggest problems for Souza Jr. were strikeouts (33.8 percent strikeout rate) and shaky defense (-5.3 DEF). The 2016 season wasn’t much better, as Souza Jr. slashed a slightly better .247/.303/.409, this time in 120 games, with a 94 wRC+ and 1.3 fWAR. Souza’s defense improved slightly, but his strikeout rate increased to 34 percent. After just two seasons, the Rays found themselves regretting what seemed like an instantly regrettable trade.
And Trea Turner wasn’t making the deal any easier to swallow. After a short stint in the big leagues in 2015, Turner came up to the big leagues for good in 2016, playing in 73 games and slashing .342/.370/.567 with a 147 wRC+ and an fWAR in 3.3 in a limited season. Coming into the 2017 season, Turner looked like potentially one of the best players in all of baseball. Souza Jr. was already an afterthought at only 27 years old.
It’s clear that there was a lot of pressure for Souza Jr. coming into the season, some of it fair, some of it not. After all, he will forever be remembered as the guy the Rays gave up Turner and Ross to get. The Nationals will fondly remember him for the amazing catch he made to clinch a Jordan Zimmermann no-hitter in 2014, but Turner’s name will continue to be attached to his. Whether fair or not, that is the legacy that will follow him for the remainder of his career.
Just nine days into the 2017 season, Steven Souza Jr. has started to prove his doubters wrong. Obviously there is all the warnings about small sample size and it being early, but it appears Souza Jr. has taken some strides forward at the plate. Over his first 33 plate appearances, Souza Jr. has slashed .370/.485/.593, good for a wRC+ of 218 and an fWAR of 0.6, which represents nearly half of what Souza Jr. was worth in 2016.
The more important development for Souza Jr. is his strike zone awareness. After striking out over 30 percent of the time over his first two full big league seasons, and striking out over 20 percent of the time in every minor league level, Souza Jr. has struck out only three times so far this season, good for a strikeout rate of just under 10 percent with a walk rate of 20 percent to boot. It may be too early to tell if this is a development that will continue, but it is a positive sign nonetheless.
On top of Souza Jr. cutting down his strikeout rate, he is also making more hard contact than he ever has before, making hard contact with 45.5 percent of all his batted balls. Beyond that, Souza is also pulling the ball less (a full 14 percent drop from last season) and is making much more contact and is swinging at less pitches outside of the strike zone. Altogether, these developments portend potential great things for Souza’s 2017 season.
At the plate, Souza Jr. just looks like a different player. His approach is much improved and he’s playing with an emotion that just wasn’t there before. If Souza Jr. can keep this up, someday we may just be calling the Wil Myers-Trea Turner trade the Steven Souza Jr. trade.
