The Missed Opportunity of the Trade Deadline
In a baseball world where every player is analyzed with every possible stat, how did this player fall under the radar?
This year in the MLB, 51 trades have been agreed upon and completed. The good teams got better now, while the bad teams improved their farm system. We will look back at this deadline in a couple years and say, “How in the WORLD did that team get away with that trade?”, or “What was that team THINKING?”.
But for right now, the question I have for all of the contending teams is how Jhoulys Chacín didn’t get moved. He has put up his best numbers since 2013, and provides teams with a quality starter to place in the back of the rotation.
Chacín sports a 4.15 ERA, which hasn’t been any fluke. His FIP, 4.39, supports this low ERA, and his xFIP, 4.26, agrees with it as well. He has a very low HR/9, only at 1.16. However, his BB/9 is a little less impressive, at 3.26. He doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, but he makes up for this with his ability to force soft contact, which is the main point I want to talk about.
Attached below is a graph of his Hard% and Soft% throughout his career, per Fangraphs.
As you can see, his 2015 season was by far the worst of his career. In 2016, he was able to drop his Hard% while increasing his Soft%. In 2017, he has continued to improve and now ranks among the top of the league in both of these categories. This has been the main source for his success this season.
Another part of Chacín’s game that has absolutely taken off is his slider. Chacín from 2010–2016 only threw his slider roughly 20 percent of the time. This year, he has threw it almost 35 percent. Per Fangraph’s pitch value, this slider ranks the second most effective in the league, only behind Max Scherzer. His slider has been better than Clayton Kershaw’s, Chris Archer’s, and Chris Sale’s.
Chacín, averaging nearly six innings per start, provides teams with a quality back end of the rotation arm who can take some of the stress off the bullpen down the stretch. His numbers this year are very similar to Jaime García’s, who received much interest from teams looking for this kind of starting pitching depth. Yet, all these teams completely overlooked Chacín and his career-reviving year.
Another plus about Chacín is he would come extremely cheap. He only has about $800K left on his contract, and is a free agent at the end of the year. I find it preposterous that not only was Chacín not moved at the deadline from a tanking San Diego Padres team, but there was little to no rumors involving his name.
The Baltimore Orioles, who desperately need quality innings from their starters and are looking to jump into a Wild Card spot, would have been a perfect landing spot for Chacín.
The Los Angeles Angels, another team trying to land a Wild Card spot, could’ve used Chacín’s services to help stabilize their underwhelming rotation.
The Milwaukee Brewers are trying to overtake the Cubs in the NL Central, but really didn’t even try to make a move for him?
The Rangers, Braves, Mariners, Royals, Rockies, Blue Jays, Rays, and Astros all were potential suitors for Chacín, but none made a move.
One of the possible reasons Chacín received so little interest were due to his absurd home/road splits. At home, he has a 1.86 ERA over 77 innings. On the road, his ERA is 7.36 over 55 innings. Yes, Petco Park is a pitcher friendly park, so having a lower ERA at home is expected. However, this big of a margin is unsustainable and in large part due to random and uncontrollable variables, so these splits shouldn’t stop a team from pursuing Chacín.
For all I know, Chacín could have troubling medicals. He could be a problem in the clubhouse, or maybe teams just really felt like everything this year has been a stroke of luck. Teams could’ve been all over him, despite the reports, but A.J. Preller may have wanted too much. The truth is, we really don’t know.
However, from the outside, this seems like a missed opportunity to get a quality starter for a cheap price.
