The Ryanaissance of Zimmerman
After years of struggling at the plate, Ryan Zimmerman tinkered with his swing and the early results are in: it worked.
For a Washington Nationals organization that’s been around 12 years, it’s hard to imagine a lineup without Ryan Zimmerman. As crazy as it sounds, Zimmerman (affectionately known to many as simply ‘Zim’) has appeared in 73.5 percent of games played by the Washington Nationals. He was the Nationals’ first ever draft pick. He has been involved in some of the most memorable moments in Nationals history (the opening of Nationals Park and his 11 career walk-off home runs, just to name a few.) His number 11 will be retired when he ends his career in D.C. He was the face of the franchise for five years before Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper stole the spotlight.
Yet, in 2016, Nationals fans were calling for his head. Even after all he had done for the organization, they quickly turned on Zimmerman. Coming off of back-to-back injury plagued seasons in which he missed more than 160 games between 2014 and 2015, he returned to health but saw his performance suffer. Fangraphs’ version of Wins Above Replacement (an all-encompassing stat that seeks to measure the number of wins a player is worth above the performance of an average Triple-A player) had him costing his team 1.3 wins, meaning the team would have been better sending almost anyone else out there every day. He hit just .218 over the course of 115 games to go with below-average defense at first base. To many (if not most,) it seemed like the career of Ryan Zimmerman was coming to a quick and ugly end.
With this offseasons signing of Adam Lind, it seemed like Zimmerman’s days with the Nats were numbered. Many saw the Lind signing as more than just a replacement first baseman should Zimmerman get injured. If Zimmerman continued to struggle and didn’t have a bounce back campaign in 2016, they needed someone with major league experience to replace him.
Luckily for Zimmerman and the Nationals, they haven’t needed Lind much this year. After playing more in Spring Training this year than he had in any year since 2007, he was able to lock in his swing. He hit .302 with two home runs in Spring Training, production the Nationals would gladly take from him in the regular season. Concerns still lingered though, as he had an excellent spring in 2016 before struggling once the regular season came around.
Zimmerman has quickly put those concerns to rest. He hit .333 the first week with three home runs. He hit .333 the second week and added three doubles. He hit .500 in week three with three more home runs and ten RBIs. He hit .500 in six games this week with five home runs and 13 RBIs en route to Player of the Week honors. By the time the month of April was over, he was hitting .420 with 11 home runs and 29 RBIs. To many, it seems like Ryan Zimmerman is back.
He had the best month of his career just a year after everyone thought he was done. His full month batting average was the highest he’s ever had, and he tied his previous monthly total of home runs with a stunning 11 in just 24 games. It’s hard to call his resurgence anything but amazing.
So how’d he do it?
Last offseason, a lot of focus was put on launch angle, one off the new stats recently available with the implementation of Statcast in 2015. There have always been a lot of players who have hit the ball hard but not seen that translate to success on the field. It seemed like that might be the case with Zimmerman, whose average exit velocity was 92.5mph in 2016 (11th hardest in baseball) and 91.7mph in 2015 (21st hardest.) This year, he’s hitting the ball with the same authority (91.5mph, good for 7th) but seeing a higher level of success than in the past few years. His problem wasn’t hitting the ball hard, his problem seemed to be that he was hitting the ball too low.
First, a bit about launch angle because it seems like the stat du jour these days. The sweet spot for launch angle is usually around 25 degrees with a 95+ mph exit velocity. These balls tend to go for home runs, as players hit the balls up and hard. You can’t hit a ball out of the park if you hit it into the ground, after all. Around 12 degrees tends to be a lot of line drive hits, which when combined with a high exit velocity can lead to a lot of doubles and triples. Anything hit below 10 degrees is a ground ball, and even when you hit the ball hard you can hit it right at someone for an out.
Last year, Zimmerman’s average launch angle was nine degrees, below the ground ball threshold on the graph above. While of course he would hit line drives and fly balls, he was clearly hitting the ball on the ground more often than not. This year, his average launch angle is way up to 13 degrees, and fits nicely in the line drives segment of the graph. Combined with his high exit velocity, he is getting more lift on the ball and driving it to the outfield where he can get more doubles and the occasional triple. Zimmerman is already in the line drive sweet spot, but whenever he can increase his launch angle and exit velocity by even a little into the home run sweet spot, he can hit the ball out of the ballpark.
While Zimmerman’s launch angle and success are important, Zimmerman doesn’t solely credit his changed swing. Instead, he says that for the first time in maybe three years he’s actually been healthy.
“Everyone just sees the games and all that stuff, but when you’re hurt, you can’t really do the stuff that you usually do to get ready… It’s so hard to miss time. If you come in and out — play for a couple of months, miss five weeks, play again — it’s hard.” — Ryan Zimmerman
Zimmerman has a lot of moving parts in his swing, and it generally takes time for him to lock in. That makes him a really streaky hitter, and when a mechanics goes haywire, so does his batting average for a few weeks or a month. Combining that with all kinds of injuries (he averaged just 90 games a year from 2014–2016) means he never really had a chance to find his swing. This year, with more games in Spring Training under his belt, he is absolutely locked in.
Zimmerman is playing on a god-like level. After all, his .420/.458/.886 slash line and 11 home runs speak for themselves. He has a 240 wRC+ (meaning he has been 140% better than league average so far this season) which is nearly 170 points higher than last year. He has already been worth 1.5 fWAR this season.
Yet, his .429 batting average on balls in play is sure to come down (league average is around .300,) and like fellow hot starter Eric Thames he probably won’t hit 60 home runs this year. But compared to his predictions going into the year, he has had tremendous success. The projection system ‘ZiPS’ had him hitting .259 and worth 0.6 fWAR, and even his most favorable prediction system ‘Steamer’ estimated 0.9 fWAR. In just 22 games, he’s almost doubled his predicted value this year.
So far, he’s proving the naysayers wrong. And while he probably won’t hit .420 all year, Zimmerman has fixed his swing, and the results are in: He’s a much better player because of it.
