Toronto Blue Jays 2016–17 Offseason Review
After a second postseason win over Texas and another ALCS exit, the Blue Jays did little this offseason to improve.
For the Toronto Blue Jays, the 2016 postseason had a familiar feel. They beat the Texas Rangers in another emotion-filled series and yet came up short again of making the World Series for the second year in a row. While they have had sustained success (it’s hard to call back to back ALCS appearances unsuccessful) the Blue Jays once again fell short of the ultimate goal.
After losing some key pieces to free agency, and with the increased dominance of the Boston Red Sox in the division and other teams in the league, the path to reach the postseason in 2017 is more difficult than it has been the last two seasons. While fringe teams like the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros made key acquisitions that could tip the scales in their favor, the Blue Jays saw one of their most important players walk, if not for a lack of trying.
For the Blue Jays to make the postseason for a third year in a row, they needed to make a splash this past offseason. For all they tried, it didn’t quite work out as well as they would have liked.
Toronto’s 2016 Story
The Blue Jay’s 2015 story ended in defeat at the hands of the eventual World Series champion Royals, and 2016 came to a similarly disappointing end. After an unforgettable 2015 postseason, full of José Bautista bat flips and benches clearing against the Texas Rangers, they were poised to reach the postseason once again in 2016.
I would be remiss if I didn’t at least mention the most public aspect of the 2016 Blue Jays season, which saw the rivalry between the Jays and the Rangers increase. After an intense and dramatic 2015 ALDS, the resentment (on both sides) for the other team and players caused a stir in a game in Arlington, Texas last year.
As José Bautista slid hard into second base to break up a double play, Rougned Odor was knocked off his feet. Odor came up fists first and punched Bautista, which prompted a benches-clearing brawl, the likes of which hasn’t been seen in recent years in the major leagues. Of course, the Blue Jays would get revenge in the postseason, as they knocked out the Rangers in the ALDS for the second year in a row.
While the Red Sox ended up winning the division, the Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles secured Wild Card spots. All three teams seemed sure to reach the postseason, but the division was still up for grabs as late as mid-September. Once Boston claimed the division, the Blue Jays and Orioles fought for home field advantage in the Wild Card game, which went down to the wire. The Wild Card game itself was an emotional roller coaster, and the extra-inning affair featured lead changes and an unforgettable ending.
There was not a moment in the season more magical that Edwin Encarnación’s walk off three run shot in the bottom of the 11th to send the Blue Jays to the ALDS. After an intense and hard fought game against the Baltimore Orioles, a mistake from Ubaldo Jiménez while Zach Britton was sitting in the bullpen propelled the Jays to a 6–3 win. The moment was the epitome of the season, a beloved player accompanied by his pet parrot circling the bases to the delight of the fans and his teammates.
Except that for as wonderful a moment as Encarnación’s walk-off was, they might have topped it the next series as the Blue Jays walked off on a near double play that turned into the game-winning run thanks to Josh Donaldson. The game sent their rivals packing and sent Toronto to Cleveland.
A common thread of this Blue Jays team was consistency, or lack thereof. As a homer-heavy ball club, when they were on, they were on. In the six games played between the Wild Card and Division Series against Texas, the Blue Jays managed to hit 10 home runs, and with solid pitching behind the home run barrage, they were a tough club to beat.
Once in Cleveland though, things took a turn for the worse. With the Indians talented rotation and outstanding bullpen, Toronto’s main offensive weapon was effectively neutralized. In the five games against Cleveland, they mustered only two home runs. The Indians, on the other hand, hit six. By the fourth game, the rout was on, and Toronto had little hope against Cleveland’s barrage of Andrew Miller and Cody Allen as the Indians ran away with the pennant.
“I’m sure there will be some disappointments and grumbling and complaining about how you fell short again, but that’s not coming from me. Because I know what these guys did, and I think it’s a pretty good accomplishment. The key is we want to take that next step one of these days, hopefully it’s next year. But these guys, they did a hell of a job.” — John Gibbons
The Offseason
For what it’s worth, the Blue Jays, with their limited budget, knew that they would be losing at least one of their two big name free agents this offseason. It seemed almost inevitable that Encarnación, who has been the definition of consistency over the past few years, would be the one to walk. When the Blue Jays offered Encarnación the “low ball” offer of a four-year $80 million deal, the Dominican slugger turned them down.
Encarnación and his parrot seemed set for a huge payday which the Blue Jays could not match, and so they quickly moved onto Plan B. That Plan B, as it turned out, may have been jumping the gun a little bit. Kendrys Morales, easily one of the biggest moves Toronto made this offseason, signed a three-year, $33 million contract. As it turned out, the need for one-dimensional sluggers was thin, and the prices of these types of players fell dramatically. The likes of Chris Carter, Mark Trumbo, and Mike Napoli all went unsigned into the new year.
The market for Encarnación was not as competitive as the Blue Jays thought. The three-year, $60 million offer from the Indians that Encarnación accepted was the same salary per year that the Blue Jays offered, though he might hit the market one year earlier with Cleveland if they decline his fourth year club option. Had they waited and not jumped the gun on Morales and Encarnación, they very well could have ended up bringing their star slugger back to Toronto.
That being said, they did manage to retain José Bautista. Bautista was a key part of the 2015 and 2016 postseason runs, but his production dipped last year. He came back to the Blue Jays on a one-year, $18.5 million deal with two options, so they did keep one of their major targets this year.
They also lost left fielder Michael Saunders to free agency, who provided much needed athleticism to the team. They addressed the gap left by Saunders when they signed Steve Pearce to a two-year, $12.5 million deal, which does add some versatility. His career .266/.348/.485 slash line is not eye-popping but respectably strong nonetheless.
The starting rotation remains very strong, with Francisco Liriano, Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, and J.A. Happ, though the loss of R.A. Dickey to the Atlanta Braves might sting. While the rotation is strong, they lost key pieces of the bullpen to free agency this offseason.
In terms of losses, the Jays lost Joaquin Benoit (who signed with the Philadelphia Phillies) and Brett Cecil (who signed with the St. Louis Cardinals) which left questions about the bullpen strength. Backing up the formidable closer Roberto Osuna will be Jason Grilli, and veterans J.P. Howell and Joe Smith.
What Wasn’t Answered?
After a disappointing offseason, there are still a few questions that the Blue Jays will try to answer in the coming months. One of the main concerns for the front office was the athleticism of the roster. As Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins said earlier this month “Any organization would be looking to create more balance, more platoon effect and potentially more speed. But it’s just not as easy as deciding to do that and making that happen,”
Yet, the key acquisitions by the Blue Jays don’t address these needs at all. Morales and Bautista do little in terms of speed and balance. According to reports, the Blue Jays did look around for more athletic outfield options. To their credit, they looked at Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler, Curtis Granderson, and others, but failed to pull the trigger on any of these moves.
The lineup still remains very right-handed. While Steve Pearce adds a little bit of athletic ability, he is also right-handed. At this point, with Bautista’s declining defense, he is better suited at first or at DH, and while Morales can play first he has only started 15 games at first since the beginning of 2015.
Against a right-handed starter, the Blue Jays lineup may only have two or possibly three left-handed hitters. Morales is a switch hitter, and Justin Smoak is a lefty. Jarrod Saltalamacchia is a switch hitter as well, but the Blue Jays signed him to a minor league contract and he is not expected to make the Opening Day roster. The lack of left-handed depth is cause for real concern for the Blue Jays, and they are extremely susceptible to right-handers on the mound.
2017 Outlook
The Blue Jays 2016–2017 offseason was almost universally a disappointment from what it could have been. Had they waited for Encarnación’s price to drop, they may have had a real chance of landing him. Had they not jumped the gun and signed Morales to a large contract, they could have almost certainly gotten him (or someone like him) for a discounted price.
Yet after all is said and done, the Blue Jays do have some strengths. The starting rotation looks excellent, in fact it may be one of the best rotations in the American League. The return of José Bautista could be good for this team, and Josh Donaldson is a perennial MVP candidate. There is real upside to the Blue Jays roster going into this year.
That being said, the path to the postseason is difficult. The Red Sox are poised to run away with the division and the Jays will have to beat the likes of the Mariners, Orioles, Yankees, Tigers, and whatever team (either the Astros or the Rangers) fails to claim the AL West.
Many teams threaten the Blue Jays chances of a postseason return, and they didn’t do nearly enough to keep up with the others. The Blue Jays might make it to the playoffs once again, but don’t bet on it.
