Washington Nationals 2016–17 Offseason Review
After another disappointing early playoff exit, the Nationals went all in this offseason. Kind of.
The Washington Nationals are the kings of early playoff exits. In the last five seasons going back to 2012, only the St. Louis Cardinals have more regular season wins than the Nationals. In that period, they went to the playoffs three times, in which they had the most wins in the National League in two of them, and the second most wins in the NL in another. They have had home field advantage in every playoff series they have appeared in.
And yet, they also have the same number of playoff series wins as the Minnesota Twins, and the Milwaukee Brewers, and the Cincinnati Reds during that five year span. The number is zero. Zero might as well be the team number for the Nationals since their inception in 2005. First it was Playoff Appearances: zero. Then it was Playoff Wins: zero. Now there is a new problem. Number of Playoff Series Wins: zero. And that number has stayed the same despite three playoff appearances in a five-year span.
The Nationals have been a force to contend with in the National League for five years now, yet they have little to show for it. With two years remaining for many of their key players (see Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy) there has never been a more “win-now” moment for the Nationals. 2017 could certainly be a make or break year for an organization that still hasn’t made a World Series appearance, let alone won a series in the playoffs. And they went all in.
Washington’s 2016 Story
Unlike most division winners last year, the Nationals didn’t begin the year as the favorites to win the division. They were coming off an extremely disappointing 2015, where they began the season as World Series favorites and didn’t make the playoffs. They barely managed to stay above .500, had just fired their manager, and the clubhouse atmosphere had become extremely toxic (thank you, Jonathan Papelbon). They also missed out on their top manager target and had to “settle” for Dusty Baker.
After a back and forth first place battle between the New York Mets and Nats (and the Philadelphia Phillies early on) the Nationals assumed control of first place on May 18 and ran away with the division.
The Mets and Miami Marlins were always sort of hanging around, but never really had a chance to clinch the division. Instead, they focused on Wild Card spots, which the Mets ultimately did get. This left the Nationals able to focus on home field advantage for the NLDS. With no hope of catching the Cubs for the best record in the league, they knew they would likely be facing the Los Angeles Dodgers at home in Washington for Game 1.
While the Nationals may have missed out on their top target for manager Bud Black, Dusty Baker’s reputation for winning ballgames was not exaggerated. In his first season with the Nats, Baker led his team to the postseason fairly easily as they finished the season with 95 wins, eight games ahead of the division rival Mets. Baker’s “reputation” for ruining arms has not come up yet, though it has certainly been a discussion surrounding young arms in the organization.
The Nationals also missed out on trading for top target, second baseman Brandon Phillips (he did not waive his no-trade clause and opted to stay with the Reds) but the Nationals could not be happier with who they got instead. As it turned out Daniel Murphy’s hot 2015 postseason was a good indicator for his 2016, as he was easily the best offensive player for the Nationals last year. Murphy slashed .347/.390/.595 and finished the year with a career best 5.5 fWAR.
As it turned out, Murphy was a key acquisition, as Harper slumped throughout most of the season. The Las Vegas native did not have anything near his MVP-caliber 2015 season. After an amazing year in 2015, Harper had hopes of another MVP season, but he slumped big time. He finished the year slashing just .243/.373/.441 with only 24 home runs. While injury rumors surrounded him all season, Harper did not play like the player expecting over $400 million in his next contract.
Harper’s offensive struggles were also mitigated by the emergence of Wilson Ramos. Coming off of LASIK eye surgery in the offseason, the Nationals catcher slashed .307/.354/.496 and received his first All-Star Game appearance and won his first Silver Slugger Award. Poised for a big payday, Ramos turned down a three-year, $30 million contract from the Nats in August, but after tearing his ACL before the postseason, he was not extended a qualifying offer and signed a two-year deal with the Tampa Bay Rays.
And then there’s Trea Turner, perhaps the most exciting story for Nats’ fans from last year. The 23-year-old made his debut in 2015, but with Danny Espinosa a lock at shortstop in 2016, Turner spent most of the season in center field. He became the Nationals’ full-time center fielder when he took over duties from the struggling Michael A. Taylor and Ben Revere. Had he played a full season, Turner may have given Corey Seager a run for his money for Rookie of the Year, but he finished the year slashing .342/.370/.567 with 13 home runs regardless. With 33 steals last season, Turner is poised to join the 20/20 club next year if he has another good season.
While this year there was no Jonathan Paplebon-Bryce Harper trouble, the struggling closer found himself without a job come the All-Star break, and the Nationals traded Felipe Rivero to the Pirates for closer Mark Melancon. Melancon was a relative bargain compared to what Chicago and Cleveland payed for their arms, and Melancon was great in the postseason.
In the end though, the Nationals were clearly one of the three most dominant teams in the National League, as the end of season awards showed. The Nationals had a top-two finisher in each of the player awards, with Max Scherzer taking home the Cy Young Award and Trea Turner taking second in Rookie of the Year honors. Daniel Murphy, meanwhile, was runner up for the NL MVP award, and Dusty Baker came in third for Manager of the Year.
Yet after another disappointing postseason, in which they were missing Stephen Strasburg once again, the Nationals are poised to repeat as NL East champions. With Mark Melancon and Wilson Ramos leaving, the Nationals had big holes to fill in the offseason. Harper’s impending free-agency is coming ever closer, and it has became clear that it is time for the Nationals to go all in. Sort of.
The Offseason
The Nationals’ offseason was interesting to say the least. They went in with two crucial needs; to replace Ramos or at least fill the vacancy behind the plate, and find a closer to solve the postseason woes of their past. They ended up with a four-time all-star catcher in Matt Wieters, and sured up a weak link at shortstop when they traded for Adam Eaton and moved Turner back to his natural position. Yet once again the Nationals find themselves going into a season without a trusted closer in the bullpen.
Perhaps the biggest move this offseason was the so-called “Adam Eaton deal” which sent Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López, and Dane Dunning to the White Sox for Eaton. The move significantly dipped into the Nationals starting pitching prospects, including the last year’s №2 prospect in baseball (Giolito) and the №4 Nationals prospect (López). This was the “all-in moment” for the Nationals, when they seemingly traded away a lot of their future prospects to fill an immediate need.
What they received in exchange was an excellent and consistent player in Eaton. His defensive skills are impressive (20 DRS) but he could be out of his natural environment playing center field. The long-term and cheap contract provides the Nationals with very good outfield defense for the next five years, which gives them some insurance, especially if Harper leaves following the 2018 season.
On to Matt Wieters. Everyone knew that they needed to fill a big hole that Ramos left, both on defense and, as of last season, on offense. And yet they started the offseason by trading for Derek Norris. In the end, Norris was released when the Nats acquired Wieters in February.
The problem here wasn’t replacing Norris with Wieters. That was a smart move. The problem here was trading for Norris in the first place when they knew they wanted Wieters. Sure, it just so happened that Wieters fell into their lap at a discounted price, but the Nationals should have known that Norris wasn’t enough for this team.
They knew they needed Wieters, and it’s not like anyone was going to snatch up Norris from the Padres before they could. If they whiffed on Wieters later in the offseason, they could have always traded for Norris. They didn’t need to trade for Norris that early, especially if they knew Wieters was one of their main targets this offseason.
Finally a word on the bullpen. While the Nationals may have missed out on the big name free agent closers (Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon, and Kenley Jansen) they did sure up their bullpen in the end. They find themselves once again without a proven major league closer, but they do have excellent candidates in the bullpen who they can choose from.
The Nationals also added Joe Blanton, and the former-Dodgers set-up man provides good stability at the back of the bullpen. Joining him are lefties Óliver Pérez and Sammy Solis, as well as Blake Treinen and Matt Grace. The bullpen looks to be in great shape, even without a proven closer to anchor it.
What Wasn’t Answered?
The Nationals accomplished some of their major goals this offseason by signing Wieters and trading for Eaton. They added outfield defense and replaced a struggling shortstop in Espinosa when they moved Turner back to his natural position. They built up bullpen depth with Blanton, and he will be a key piece for the Nats as they look to once again make a deep run into the postseason. But without a proven closer at the back of the bullpen, the Nationals seem poised to make another trade deadline move.
The biggest story line as the Nationals break camp to start the regular season will be who Dusty wants to call on for save situations, especially as the way that teams view closers has evolved. At the time of this piece, there is still no word on who Dusty will be calling on in the ninth for the upcoming season.
The most likely candidates are Koda Glover and Shawn Kelley. Glover is a fire-balling reliever with a great closer mentality, but has little experience in the major leagues and still has rookie status. Does Baker have the faith in such a young arm to get the final outs of a potential World Series clincher? We’ll have to see.
Another option is Shawn Kelley, the 32-year-old with little closing experience. While he has just 11 career saves, 7 of those came last year, and he boasts an impressive career BB/9 (2.84) and good HR/9 (1.18). Kelley had an excellent year last year when he put up a 2.64 ERA, and through impressive command and strikeout rates, he has proven himself to be an elite reliever. Good enough to close for a championship team? We’ll have to see.
At the end of the day though, the Nationals do have a lot of options to tap into. Besides the two listed above, Joe Blanton could close if they needed him to, as he has proven to be one of the game’s elite relievers the past few years. They can also make a trade deadline deal if none of the talented relievers emerge as good closers. While their minor league depth took a hit in the Eaton deal, they still have plenty of trading chips. So who gets the ball for the ninth this season? We’ll have to see.
The 2017 Outlook
Going into the 2017 season, the Nationals find themselves in a familiar place in terms of both expectations and talent on the roster. With the Mets’ struggles last year perhaps an indication of things to come, and many teams in the division rebuilding, the Nationals have a good chance of clinching the division once again this year, or at the very least a Wild Card spot. Barring a total 2015-like collapse, the Nationals should enter the playoffs again this year, with perhaps a better and younger core both in the starting rotation and the bullpen.
If Joe Ross and Strasburg can stay healthy this season, and with Harper seemingly returning to form (if Spring Training is any indication) the Nationals have plenty of talent to make the playoffs. Bullpen issues will arise, as they usually do, but with the amount of talent they have in the minors, a trade deadline deal is not out of the question.
If Harper can bounce back, and Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth start to contribute as well, the Nationals might have one of the deepest lineups in the majors. Even with Murphy expected to regress, the depth of the roster cannot be stressed enough.
Max Scherzer was reportedly dealing with a finger injury during the offseason and beginning of Spring Training, and he is expected to miss Opening Day, though he should be ready at some point in the first time through the rotation according to the Washington Post. Strasburg is expected to make the Opening Day start as the Nationals once again set out to make it past the Division Series.
Going into 2017, the Nationals are in a good spot. They filled some holes in key positions but the bullpen still remains in flux. After a reasonably good offseason, they are poised to repeat as division champions next year.
