What the Eduardo Núñez trade means for Rafael Devers

Breaking down the Núñez trade, bashing the Red Sox for mishandling prospects, and having some fun with OOTP Baseball 18’s simulator engine.

Wyatt Asher
Jul 26, 2017 · 5 min read
(Getty Images/Ezra Shaw)

Tuesday night, the San Francisco Giants dealt third baseman Eduardo Núñez to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for two minor league pitchers. This trade was somewhat expected, as the Giants were proclaimed sellers and the Red Sox had a gaping hole at third base.

This deal makes perfect sense for the Giants. Núñez was going to be a free agent this winter, and with no reason to keep him for the rest of the season, they were able to get two prospects for him.

The first player the Giants received back in this deal is right-hander Shaun Anderson. Anderson was drafted in the third round of the 2016 draft out of college, and has put up impressive numbers in A-ball.

His fastball can touch 96, and has sink and run to it, as well. His best secondary pitch is his slider, which he used for the majority of his strikeouts throughout college. He also has the ability to throw a curveball and a changeup, although they are both still coming along.

Being 6'4", he is able to use his height to create a down-hill plane to make it tougher for the hitter. He was the #18 prospect in the Red Sox farm system, and will be #17 for the Giants, per MLB Pipeline.

The other player the Giants netted in this deal is 17-year-old right-hander Gregory Santos. Santos is not a top 30 prospect in either the Red Sox nor the Giants farm, and is more of a lottery ticket type prospect. This year in Rookie ball, he has put up a 0.90 ERA in 30 innings, so the Giants are hoping he can blossom into a real asset.

Now that we’ve talked about the Giants return, let’s look at the Red Sox new starting third baseman. Núñez is 30 years old and in the last year of arbitration, so he does not look to be a long term piece for Boston. Between a half season with the Minnesota Twins and a half with San Francisco in 2016, he broke out and put up an fWAR of 2.7. It was by far the best year of his career. This year he has sported a 1.2 fWAR in 318 plate appearances.

Núñez fills out as just an average hitter, putting up only a 101 wRC+ between this year and last. He hasn’t appeared as a very good defender at third base. His DRS is -3 and his UZR/150 is at -12.7 for this year. Núñez does provide position versatility, logging innings at every position except for center field and first base throughout his career. However, the problem is he has a negative DRS at each spot.

The two stats about Núñez which stick out the most are his walk and strikeout percentages. The good news is his strikeout rate is only 9 percent, meaning he is elite at putting the ball in play. The bad news is his walk rate is just under 4 percent.

Finding a player with the contact abilities of Núñez is rare, but with his inability to draw walks, it limits the effectiveness of constantly putting the ball in play.

One thing worth noting is the Red Sox now have three players who strikeout at a minimum. Núñez, Mookie Betts, and Dustin Pedroia are three of the only four players in the league who have strikeout rates under 10 percent. Whether this is just a coincidence, or a strategy the Red Sox are employing, it certainly makes for a fun trivia question.

One thing that confused a lot of minds in the baseball world is why the Red Sox would trade for Núñez, since they have just called up top third base prospect Rafael Devers. They certainly didn’t trade for Núñez just to put him in a utility role, so what does this mean for Devers?

He will most likely get sent back down to Triple-A, which is a really bad look for Boston. You never want to call up a prospect, and then send them back down immediately. It can mess with their confidence and could lead to a stunted development.

We saw a similar situation last year when the Red Sox called up top prospect Yoan Moncada, despite him never playing a game in Triple-A. They rushed him up , hoping he would provide a spark that would get the Red Sox rolling.

He got 20 plate appearances and put up a 31 wRC+, and then was promptly sent back down to Double-A.

Devers at least got 38 plate appearances in Triple-A before he was called up, but that was not nearly enough. The Red Sox mishandling of Moncada didn’t turn out to hurt them, as they traded him for Chris Sale in the offseason. We’ll see what happens with Devers, but calling him up just to send him back down could end up looming large.

The Red Sox don’t have enough spots in their lineup to fit both Núñez and Devers, so there is a very good chance Núñez will assume the starting spot at third, and Devers will go back down to Pawtucket. However, just for kicks, I put both scenarios in OOTP Baseball 18’s simulator engine. I simulated up to July 26 in two different files. In one I put Núñez in as the starting third baseman, and in the other I called up Devers and let him play there. The results were quite interesting.

In the file where the Red Sox called up Devers and never traded for Núñez, they went 32–27 from July 26 through the end of the season. Devers was underwhelming, only putting up an 82 wRC+ and a 0.1 WAR in 256 plate appearances. Just like real life, Devers didn’t have the Triple-A experience to thrive in the big leagues.

In my other file, I traded for Núñez and put Devers in Triple-A. Boston went 28–31 since the pickup and Núñez only hurt the team. His wRC+ ended up at 73, even worse than Devers in the other file. His WAR was an abysmal -0.2 and much like his real numbers, he rarely struck out or walked.

Obviously, these projections mean absolutely nothing and whatever actually happens with Boston will have no correlation with the simulator engine. However, it is worth noticing due to Devers’ lack of experience in Triple-A, he struggled at the big league level. Núñez has been consistent over the past few years, so he most likely won’t put up a negative WAR in his time with the Red Sox. Time will tell how this trade works out for both teams, and if the Boston toying with Devers backfires.

RO Baseball

The Read Optional’s Baseball Site

Wyatt Asher

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Baseball Enthusiast

RO Baseball

The Read Optional’s Baseball Site

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