Who Are the Cardinals Trade Pieces?
With the deadline approaching, the St. Louis Cardinals need to accept their status as sellers.
The St. Louis Cardinals are not good. They’ve been shuttling between third and fourth place in the NL Central more than Randal Grichuk has been between Triple-A and the bigs.
At 48–51, the Birds are only 4.5 games behind in the division thanks to an awful NL Central, but no one is delusional enough (except management apparently) to think this Cardinals team can win the division and make the playoffs. The Cubs are finding their stride in the second half and have more talent, while in Milwaukee the Brewers have the look of a scrappy team capable of sticking around.
If fans are looking to the Wild Card for hope, let me rule that out for you. Thanks to an ultra-strong NL West (the Dodgers, Rockies, and Diamondbacks all have at least 57 wins) there could be as many as three playoff teams coming from that division alone. Arizona currently holds a slight edge for the first WC spot, while the Cubs are five games behind Colorado for the second. One of the Brewers or Cubs will also be in the mix for a WC spot depending on who ends up winning the Central.
All of these teams are currently better than the Cardinals and it isn’t going to get any better with St. Louis about to start series against Colorado, Arizona, and Milwaukee in the coming weeks.
All these factors scream St. Louis should sell at the deadline, and there are some attractive pieces contenders could come calling for. So now that we’ve clarified the Cardinals are not going to make the playoffs (barring a 2011-esque run) which players could be wearing different uniforms once August comes?
Trevor Rosenthal, RP: 3.69 ERA, 2.20 FIP
Trevor Rosenthal’s ERA might not look pretty but that’s why it’s important to look deeper and notice his FIP is almost a full two points lower. That’s a telling sign that Rosenthal has actually been better than his current ERA indicates. Furthermore Rosenthal’s 1.216 WHIP is better than it was from his 48-save campaign in 2015. Still hitting 100 most days, teams will come calling for a flame-throwing righty with closing experience and team control through 2019.
Potential Suitors: Houston Astros, Boston Red Sox, Colorado Rockies, Washington Nationals
Tommy Pham, OF: .308/.395/.534, 14 HR, 43 RBI
First of all, I realize this will be a wildly unpopular take. But Tommy Pham is finally healthy and showing us what he’s capable of when given regular time. Thus, his stock will never be higher. Capable of being a starter or a fourth outfielder, Pham has a blend of speed and power that will interest teams looking for either or both.
At worst, Pham can be a weapon off the bench, and at best he has shown the ability to carry a team for games at a time. For the past few series alone, Pham has looked like a star, bumping his average above .300, and coming through in clutch situations.
At almost 30 years old, and with an injury history Pham does not have a place on the Cardinals in the future. However, he is under team control until 2022, so it would be best to sell high to a contender now.
Potential Suitors: Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, Colorado Rockies, Tampa Bay Rays, Washington Nationals
Lance Lynn, SP: 3.21 ERA, 1.102 WHIP
After missing all of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, Lance Lynn has come back strong in 2017. Lynn has always had bulldog attributes as a pitcher, one who just goes and grinds and gives you innings. So why trade a guy like that?
The 30-year-old will be a free agent after this season and with the solid year he is authoring, Lynn could easily fetch a $100 million contract from some teams on the open market.
With good pitching such a necessity these days there will be many teams lining up to acquire the veteran’s services. With Alex Reyes coming back next year, and a number of other high upside arms on the farm, the Cardinals must decide if they want to keep Lynn past this season and if not, deal him.
Potential Suitors: Los Angeles Dodgers, Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers, Houston Astros, New York Yankees, Washington Nationals, Cleveland Indians
Randal Grichuk, OF: .227/.280/.455, 13 HR, 37 RBI
At just 25 years old it wouldn’t be smart to give up on Randal Grichuk in the scope of his career, but it is time for St. Louis to move on. The Cardinals have been waiting for Grichuk to blossom into something more than a streaky power hitter for three years now, and it hasn’t happened.
With the newly arrived Tyler O’Neill waiting at Triple-A and Harrison Bader recently being called up, it seems Grichuk’s days in St. Louis are numbered. However he still can hit the ball quite a long way and be used as a weapon off the bench, a trait teams will pay for.
Whether you package him with Lynn or someone else or just ship him off alone for a fringe prospect, a change of scenery is needed for the former first round pick. He’s under team control through 2021 and is still in his mid-20s, so a rebuilding squad or a contender in need of some pop off the bench could take a chance on him.
Potential Suitors: Tampa Bay Rays, Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers, Oakland A’s, Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, Milwaukee Brewers, San Francisco Giants
The St. Louis front office seems to be still deciding if they want to try and contend this season or not, but the smart answer would be to not. The Cardinals are on the very fringe of contention and would need one hell of a push to make it into a Wild Card. They don’t have to go full Astros or Cubs and blow the whole thing up, but just sell off some of their attractive pieces and reload for a year or two down the road. Usually that’s a tactic that doesn’t work well, but if played right John Mozeliak could make it work so the Birds are back in 2018.
