The Post Smartphone World
The smartphone’s days are numbered.
Yup I said it. Seems crazy to think about, almost blasphemous, because the smartphone is the center of the tech universe and basically the central hub of all our lives. We wouldn’t dare leave our homes without them and even in our homes we can’t put them down. But right now, the smartphone is the pager during the 1980s, the Walkman during the 90s, and the iPod during the 2000s. We have hit peak smartphone.
For the record, I’m not claiming that the death of smartphones will happen anytime soon, but the writing is on the wall. Here is why:
Let’s start with Apple, the iconic smartphone company. Apple’s growth in iPhone sales is beginning to decline. In Q2 2016, Apple shipped 40.4 million units which was a 15% decline year on year from Q2 2015, and the smartphone industry as a whole is flat (1). The smartphone market is quickly maturing.
I believe Apple has realized this and, to its credit, the company has started taking steps to move into a post iPhone world. You can already take a call with your watch (yes the phone still needs to be there), but the introduction of wireless EarPods makes it easy to imagine a world where the phone is no longer necessary. Just go out with your watch and ear buds and boom, you can communicate with anyone you want without carrying a smartphone.
I know calling is probably one on the least used functions of a smartphone and voice commands aren’t good enough yet to reliably capture a user’s commands, but the fact that you can detach communication from the phone, opens up all the additional functionality smartphones offer (apps, internet, gaming, etc.) to new form factors.
Snap’s introduction of Spectacles makes them most interesting company in tech right now because it takes advantage of a new form factor for communication. It also doesn’t hurt that they are based in LA (#LongLA).
Yes, Spectacles can only record short videos and still require a phone for distribution, but it’s a killer use case that could ultimately allow Snap to succeed where Google Glass didn’t. Whether or not it proves to be a success is a topic for a completely different post and a ton of really smart people have weighed in on it already so I won’t get into why it may or may not succeed.
For the sake of argument, let’s assume they do succeed. What does that mean? It means Snap just put a computer on the most valuable real estate on the planet: your face. It’s no stretch to think that Snap, which has already proven to be very adept at adding on new products and services to its original offering, will add more use cases to Spectacles over time. Why not use the lenses as the new screen to run apps, get directions, or surf the web? Why not integrate the ability to read and send texts or make phone calls with glasses instead of phones? Yes, this will take time and engineering, but much like Apple started with the iPod and then turned it into a device that could also make phone calls and browse the internet, my bet is Snap does the same thing with Spectacles in the coming years..
Another trend that might signal the end of the smartphone is Virtual Reality. Critics say VR is isolating because you have to be inside a headset. I couldn’t disagree more. I’ve been arguing since the first time I tried on a VR headset that it will be one of the most social platforms ever created. And then Zuckerberg dropped a VR demo at Oculus Connect showcasing where communication is headed and the ability to call, take pictures, and interact with others within VR. And yes, the demo was showcasing where its headed, not what’s here today, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that VR will be an incredibly powerful social platform that changes the way we communicate thus further eroding the necessity of a smartphone.
But the whole point of a smartphone is MOBILITY and VR won’t give users the same mobile freedom a phone does. True. Which is where Augmented Reality comes in.
Where VR struggles with mobility, AR will shine. By overlaying data onto the real world, users might have Facebook’s app running at all time to get contextual data on who they are talking to, Waze to show them where to go next, or have email available to stay on top of key business communication. We will get to the point where all the functionality of a smartphone will be layered onto the real world, completely eliminating the need for a screen in our pocket. Snapchat already does AR with their facial filters and Apple is rumored to be working on AR as well.
Lastly there is Amazon. More specifically, Alexa. Amazon has opened its Alexa APIs so that developers can plug in and harness the power of voice commands. Pebble is integrating Alexa into its latest smartwatch and other interesting applications are emerging as well. It’s just a matter of time until all one needs are standalone connected headphones with Alexa built in to allow users to communicate via the cloud without a smartphone.
Apple, Snap, and Amazon’s experiments won’t kill the smartphone in the next 5 years. But the technologies and trends emerging from these and other players will erode the smartphone’s dominance. We will wake up one day and realize the mobile hardware game changed because of the convergence of these trends.
A big thank you to Selina Troesch for debating with me, challenging my assumptions, and helping me refine my thoughts around this topic and post.
