US Politics

Who Could The 2028 Democratic Candidate Be?

Breaking down all of the best possible Democratic candidates for the 2028 election, from long-shots to surefires

Elements used from Wikipedia Commons by Gage Skidmore (x2), Anxelli84, US Bureau of Reclamation

It’s incredibly stressful to watch democracy hang in the balance so — I thought — why not ease the stress and look forward to 2028? There’s a lot of talk about who the Democratic candidate should be in 2024, something I already talked about here but let’s assume it is Joe Biden and he wins (as is my prediction for 2024).

The talk about who should replace our aging President is as good a place to start as any. Ipsos and Reuters ran national polls of various Democrats against Trump to compare it to Biden’s performance. Those democrats were:

1. Governor J. B. Pritzker (Illinois)
2. Governor Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan)
3. Governor Andy Beshear (Kentucky)
4. Governor Gavin Newsom (California)
5. First Lady Michelle Obama (Illinois)
6. Vice President Kamala Harris (California)

Michelle Obama polled extremely well but said she didn’t want to run, expectedly, it would take huge stakes for her to do so and if Trump in 2024 isn’t enough, then nothing will be. So we can take her off our list. Gavin Newsom won in California which is one of the bluest states in the union but is a decent snapshot of the nation due to its vast size and diversity. However, his biggest shortcoming is that he doesn’t appear to translate well outside of California — he is the Democratic version of Florida governor Ron Desantis. So we will take him off too.

There are a few people I’d like to add to the list that were not on the poll. This means our new list is, in no particular order:

1. Governor J. B. Pritzker (Illinois)
2. Governor Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan)
3. Governor Andy Beshear (Kentucky)
4. Vice President Kamala Harris (California)
5. Governor Katie Hobbs (Arizona)
6. Secratary Pete Butigeg (Indiana)
7. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (Nevada)

So, let’s break them all down. A continuation of the Biden legacy as a moderate, more centrist Democrat would take the form of J.B. Pritzker and/or obviously, his Vice President Kamala Harris. Pritzker seems to be a more moderate candidate but is an older white man and seems to lack the ability to grow an enthusiastic backing, whereas, Kamala Harris is frequently portrayed as unlikeable and boasts the same low approval rating as Biden. While I’m sure she might be a great President she doesn’t seem electable enough, her position also seems to be more progressive than moderate but she could run a hybrid campaign as a more progressive continuation of Biden’s legacy. I don’t think this will keep either candidate out of the primary but I do think it will keep them from winning.

The Democratic party needs someone enthusiastic, someone who gets the crowd and their supporters excited to not only vote but attend rallies and show support. Historically that is best done by the next generation of Democrats, someone young. America is sick of old men (thoroughly proven by this year’s campaigns) and while Senator Cortez Masto is not nearly as old as Biden or Trump it certainly doesn’t help her. She is from a swing state, Nevada, which usually leans blue but the DNC has seen heavy bleeding amongst Latin-American voters as of late and polls have Trump winning it by decent margins, well outside the margin of error. A candidate, like Senator Masto, who has served Nevada for over 20 years would greatly benefit national Democrats. She lacks major national name recognition with around 43% of Americans knowing who she was when prompted. This could hold her back, but, there is also 4 years to make a name for herself and it is far from unheard of.

Pete Buttigieg has the advantage of being young and gay with a national presence and proven electoral success in Indiana, a traditionally red state. However, I (and others) have concerns about his appeal to non-white ethnic groups, notably Latin-American voters, a key demographic in swing states Nevada, Arizona and swing-ish state Florida. As well as Black voters who are key demographics for Democrats in states like Georgia and to an extent, Pennsylvania and Michigan. If you do a quick, surface level post-mortem of Buttigieg’s 2020 Presidential campaign (which died in the primaries) this seems to be a cause of death as he only won in largely white states (Iowa plus a tie in New Hampshire). He boasts several qualifications and has decent experience, serving in the US Military, as a mayor and now, as Biden’s transportation secretary. He also graduated Harvard magna cum laude and was a Rhodes scholar at Oxford, he studied history, literature, philosophy, economics and politics.

That leaves Andy Beshear, Katie Hobbs and Gretchen Whitmer. The former two both have proven electoral success in their home states, neither of which lean blue which would prove helpful to a national Presidential campaign. They also lack major national profiles like Cortez but once again this can be easily overcome in the next 4 years. Katie Hobbs has the political advantage of being a woman, she also seems to appeal to Latin-American voters (being repeatedly elected in Arizona). However, her opponent in the 2022 Governor’s race, Kari Lake, was an extremist FOX news anchor who called Joe Biden “Demonic”. Despite this, she only won by less than half a percentage point, granted this was in a swing state, it could be a warning sign for future campaigns. Beshear, like Butigeg, only has electoral success in a very white state. Around 85% of its population being white whereas only around 60% of the country’s population identifies as white and key swing states are often home to several non-white groups.

Governor Gretchen Whitmer has the advantage of being involved in Michigan politics for more than 20 years, she was born in Lansing, MI and has a Bachelor’s and law degree from Michigan state university. She was elected governor in 2018 by almost 10 points and re-elected in 2022 by even larger margins. She is 52, on the older side but young enough and has the political advantage of being a woman. If done well, if the DNC can create a more paletable candidate then Hillary Clinton then the idea of the first female President should do well with younger generations and suburban women, a major boost for a Whitmer campaign. Her positions are more progressive than Biden but still nationally digestible, her only downside is being unproven electorally among Latin-American voters, making Florida, Texas, Arizona & Nevada less reachable. However, her good performance in Michigan would hopefully translate to the rest of the rust belt, putting Ohio and maybe even Indiana or Iowa back in play for national Democrats.

Now here is my final, largely subjective, ranking of each of the seven candidates:

Electability:

1. Governor J. B. Pritzker C
2. Governor Gretchen Whitmer A+
3. Governor Andy Beshear B
4. Vice President Kamala Harris D
5. Governor Katie Hobbs C
6. Secretary Pete Butigeg B
7. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto B

Governing:

1. Governor J. B. Pritzker D
2. Governor Gretchen Whitmer A
3. Governor Andy Beshear C
4. Vice President Kamala Harris C
5. Governor Katie Hobbs B
6. Secretary Pete Butigeg A+
7. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto C

My ideal ticket would be Whitmer-Butigeg however Whitmer-Masto might improve Democratic chances in Nevada. I think Whitmer is the best candidate overall. Ultimately it will be decided by the primaries — I also predict that many of the aforementioned will be in the primaries, certainly Whitmer, Harris and Butigeg. 2028 is a long way away, but it’s never too soon to escape the nightmare that is the 2024 election cycle.