Peace in the Age of Big Data
We are working with the University of Chicago to answer two key questions as part of a three-part speaker series: “What is the state of peace today?” and “What can we do about it?”
If we try to answer that first question — what is the state of peace today? — at first glance, it may seem a little bleak.
In the last decade, the number of deaths from conflict and terrorism has increased, and the economic impact of violence on the global economy in 2016 was estimated to be USD $14.3 trillion dollars, equivalent to 12.6% of world GDP.
As the Harris School’s Pearson Institute tells us in poignant terms, if you look out the window now to view the night sky, “the number of stars visible to the naked eye is less than 10% of the daily 34,000 refugees, asylum seekers, and internally displaced people fleeing violent conflicts.”
We see a world torn by deepening income inequality, increasing severe weather events, and rising geostrategic competition.
As the fruits of globalization and rapid technological advances have not reached everyone, we experience the impact of profound social instability and discontent.
Despite all this, I believe there is great cause for optimism.
Why? Because the reality is that in many ways, the world is healthier, more prosperous and more peaceful than at any time in history. Overall, deadly political conflict has been gradually declining, and we have made tremendous progress against extreme poverty, which once accounted for 4 out of every five people, and today accounts for 1 in 5.
So, which narrative will define the 21st century: increasing conflict or peacefulness?
To answer this question, we must examine the possibilities and pitfalls of the big data revolution.
In the process, we may have to lose some methodologies which no longer serve their purpose. As the authors of a book on the meaning of big data put it: “reaching for a random sample in the age of big data is like clutching at a horse whip in the era of the motor car.”
This is why our partnerships with the very best in the field of translating data into social impact, such as Harris Public Policy, and the Institute for Economics and Peace, are so important.
Because if we can make strategic decisions based on the insights of leading experts, then civil society leaders like Rotary can make the most effective interventions to build a more peaceful world, and to add weight to the optimistic narrative of global progress.
When a scholar at Harris tells us how shocks to economic stability may impact the decisions of insurgents and civilians, we can better prepare our responses to help communities on the ground.
Similarly, our approach to peacebuilding can be guided by new research, led by The Institute for Economics and Peace, which tells us that there are concrete drivers of peace that we can quantify, from low levels of corruption to high levels of human capital.
And through our global network, Rotarians are best positioned to bring about change and work for peace with partners at a grassroots level, using the new tools at our disposal, from providing health services through cell phone technology in Pakistan, to improving water quality in the Great Lakes through a simple smartphone app.
And through our peace centers program, we develop leaders who become catalysts for peace and conflict prevention and resolution. We are able to locate the very best students from every continent, and offer them a rigorous and practical education in peace-building.
More than 1,152 Rotary Peace Centers alumni are now working in over 100 countries worldwide.
Graduates of the program are working with Syrian and Yazidi refugees targeted by ISIS, fighting disease in the Congo, or kick starting new conflict resolution initiatives.
Our young leaders want to leverage big data to work toward solving the world’s greatest challenges. In the latest World Economic Forum Global Shapers Survey (covering more than 30,000 individuals under 30 from 186 countries), the participants made clear that they view conflict and climate change as the most critical issues we face, and that the newest technologies have great potential to improve people’s lives, and take on these challenges.
