What is Happening across the Continent

The Real Effect of Covid-19 on African Lives

By. Sipho sebele

As the Covid-19 virus spread, pundits worldwide were concerned about the effects it would have on Africa. That is because Africa had insufficient health infrastructure, little social security nets, and very vulnerable economies. To most people’s surprise, Africa has had fewer cases and a more limited spread than most areas. Nonetheless, the economic and social impact of the pandemic has had a profound effect on Africa.

Health

As of early September, Africa had 1,061,810 recorded cases and 22,328 deaths from 47 countries. There are a lot of theories as to why Africa has such low figures. The most sound theory is that Africa has a young population; more than 60% of Africans are under 25. The Covid-19 virus is more deadly among older people and those with pre-existing conditions.

Another reason for the low figures is the worrying trend in Africa of low testing rates. Testing has been deficient in Africa. For example, South Africa, which has had one of the best Covid-19 responses in the world, had a rate of 61 tests per 1,000 people by 28 August. In comparison, the UK and US had 198 and 208 respectively by 26 August. Other African nations fared even worse, with Nigeria carrying out 1.9 tests per 1,000 people by 28 August, while Kenya had done 8.2 by then. Eleven countries account for about 80% of the total tests conducted — South Africa, Morocco, Ethiopia, Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, Uganda, Mauritius, and Cameroon. Approximately half of the continent’s nations have a ratio lower than the benchmark recommended by the Africa Center for Disease Control of 10 tests for every positive case.

Social

The impact of the Covid-19 on the social fabric of Africa has been devastating. Without a cure or vaccine in sight, children have had to forgo school for months. Opening schools presents a health challenge that could stretch the health systems. E-learning was barely present in much of Africa, so switching to e-learning was always going to be difficult in such a short time. Access to the internet is low in Africa. Most citizens access the internet through the mobile phone, which isn’t an ideal learning instrument. The quality of the internet is also low, and it is very costly. So only a few parents can access and afford quality internet connectivity and computers.

The shutdowns of critical industries such as mines, hotels, restaurants, and retail outlets left many workers with an uncertain future. Informal workers, who make up a large proportion of Africa’s economies, were the worst affected as they had no safety nets. Before the pandemic hit, African governments spent very little on providing safety nets for its citizens. Few governments could afford substantive social assistance to citizens during the lockdown. So a lot of self-employed and recently unemployed Africans are facing a challenging future.

The economic empowerment of African women is expected to suffer as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. With money becoming scarce, girls are less likely to go to school, and women are less likely to access sexual and reproductive health services. Domestic violence cases are also rising in recorded countries. Victims find themselves shut indoors with their abusers with no respite such as work or school.

Economic

Much like the world, Africa expects to experience economic shrinkage. As large markets in Europe and Asia have gone into lockdowns, that has affected African raw materials’ demand. African nations have had to close their economies, which has inevitably led to negative GDP expectations.

What left African nations vulnerable was the state of their health systems. The investment needed to cope with the pandemic would leave African countries with no budgetary space for anything else. It was for this reason that the G20's Debt Service Suspension Initiative was enacted. The Initiative suspended debt payments until the end of the year for the poorest countries, including 40 sub-Saharan African countries.

Africa produces around 10% of the world’s oil. African oil-producing nations rely heavily on oil for government revenue, exports, and GDP. These nations were adversely affected by the Saudi-Russia oil price war, which was immediately followed by a precipitous drop in the oil price due to the lockdowns.

The oil price is used by oil-producing nations to benchmark their budgets.

Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, relies on oil for 10 percent of its GDP, 57 percent of government revenues, and 80 percent of exports. According to the World Bank, it’s economy is expected to shrink by 10.6 percent. The government had to drop its benchmark price for oil from $57 to $25 per barrel.

Angola, Africa’s second-largest oil producer, relies on oil for 90% of export revenues, saw the value of its oil exports fall by nearly 50% from April to May. It had also benchmarked it’s budget at an oil price of $57 and is facing a fiscal deficit.

Algeria, Africa’s third-largest oil-producing nation, earns 90% of its export from oil revenue and funds 60% of its oil budget. The government was already dealing with a financial crisis after it had spent two-thirds of its reserves in five years. The Algerian government had to cut its national budget by 50% in May.

Considering that African governments face low commodity prices, depleted reserves, and an uncertain future, experts hope that the continent could leverage the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA). AfCFTA is a continental agreement that will eliminate tariffs, lower border controls, and ease capital flow. Experts believe that the benefits from the deal could act as a stimulus to the continental economy.

Political

While most of Africa’s significant events are not necessarily tied to the pandemic, there have been significant political upheavals in Africa. Mali experienced a coup, Malawi had a major election that the opposition won, and Mozambique was losing ground to an Isis backed rebel group.

The pandemic has exposed the democratic and administrative weaknesses of African governments. Not only were most governments reliant on aid to fight the epidemic, but their health systems were found lacking. Within the crisis, bad actors turned it into an opportunity to steal; the Zimbabwean, Somalian, and South African governments have found themselves being questioned over corrupt deals connected to the Covid-19 response.

While governments worldwide, particularly in the West, are occupied with containing the pandemic, malicious governments have seen it as an opportunity to oppress. Draconian laws and actions have taken place in Tanzania, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, and Eswatini, to mention a few.

While there have been lives lost and massive disruption in Africans’ lives, the continent has better survived the pandemic than most people thought. The quick response to shut down economies and close borders limited the spread of the virus. Strict adherence to WHO guidelines, diligent work by healthcare workers, and a collective effort from the private sector contributed to the fight to stave off the virus. African nations have also increased their capacity to deal with the pandemic. While Africa may have had the worst prospects for dealing with the epidemic, it may come out of it with a lower death toll than other regions.