“Heads In!” Round 8
Unpacking the scrum each week in the NRL
The Broncos are in the naughty corner again, and is there a changing of the guard coming for the North Queensland Cowboys?
Whether you’re searching for an edge in the workplace tipping comp, or just desperate to talk some footy, you’ve found the place. Join me as we unpack the scrum that is the NRL each week.
Centre-Field Scrum
What’s centre-frame in the Rugby League lens this week?
Red H-ill Discipline
Another bad loss, another bad week in the headlines for the Brisbane Broncos.
After losing to ‘little brother’ Gold Coast Titans in Round 7, our newsfeeds have overflowed with one negative story after the next coming out of Red Hill:
- Speculation continues to mount regarding young superstar David Fifita’s future at the club, which is itself a sign that the Broncos’ list management is not what it used to be.
- Anthony Seibold’s tenure as Head Coach is being questioned — oops, I mean reaffirmed — startlingly early into his five-year deal, as some query whether his new-school philosophies are the right fit for the flagship club.
- It has even been mooted that Kevin Walters and/or Stephen Kearney might be brought into some kind of assistant role, to help address possible issues of a faction in the playing group.
The Broncos are lost in the dark, and everyone is suggesting a different way out.
But while we all cry for Anthony Milford to run the ball more, the Broncos’ real problems are going unnoticed: seven rounds in, Brisbane are the most ill-disciplined team in the competition.
For all their issues with the ball in hand — ironic, considering they average the lowest time in possession per game (44%) across the competition — the Broncos’ are simply not giving themselves a chance to win games.
It’s a cyclical effect — when things aren’t going to plan, players get frustrated and ill discipline or mistakes creep in. These mistakes lead to penalties, or, in extreme cases, sin bins and suspensions.
The defence is then put under more pressure, which increases fatigue levels. All this makes it harder to execute the game plan, leading to more frustration and ill discipline.
And so it continues…
Corey Oates’ sin-binning for dissent last week is a sobering yardstick for where Brisbane are at in 2020.
Ten minutes to go and down by 14 points, the Broncos get a fresh attacking set on Gold Coast’s line, but fail to capitalise as a poor backline shift sees the ball hit the deck rather than Oates’ chest.
The Titans promptly stroll 90 meters up-field, turn it over and trap Brisbane on their own goal line with some aggressive defence.
With his side struggling for meters, Oates takes a strong carry on fourth tackle, makes a few post-contact meters and finds his front to earn a quick play the ball.
He then gives referee Peter Gough a livid spray — undoing all his hard work — and gets sent for ten.
Not only does this leave Broncos’ a man down and without any chance of a miracle comeback, the flow on effect through the team was tangible.
The Broncos’ dropped their heads. They lost focus. They got more frustrated and, had there been longer on the clock, they might’ve conceded further penalties as a result.
At the very least, they conceded a try only three tackles later.
While everybody is talking about the Broncos’ misdirection in attack, their disorganised defensive structures, or their lack of leadership, it is ill discipline that under-fire coach Anthony Seibold needs to address first — and fast.
Right Scrum-Line
Who is feeling the pressure this week?
Back to the Pack?
The season from hell continued in Round 7 for Fantasy/SuperCoaches and NRL coaches alike, with a host of big name players succumbing to various injuries across the competition in recent weeks.
Due respects go to every injured player so far this season, as all teams feel the pressure of losing their respective players, but the headlines of late have been dominated by injuries to big names like Mitchell Moses, Victor Radley, Cameron Munster and Tom Trbojevic.
While their time on the sidelines varies from case to case, what is consistent among them is that they all play for expected top-8 teams.
With a shortened competition this year meaning that two points are more valuable than ever, teams missing their stars in 2020 will feel that loss more keenly than in seasons past.
There is a belief that a divide is growing between the top- and bottom-half of the NRL ladder — and there is some substance to this.
Ladder positions aside, the Sydney Roosters have undeniably been the benchmark of the competition so far.
Parramatta, Melbourne and Penrith sit somewhere beneath them, while Manly, Newcastle and Canberra aren’t too far behind again. There is then a cluster of teams tussling for those middle rungs on the ladder, while most agree the wooden spoon will be fought out between a select handful of clubs.
But with a raft of injuries to key personnel — particularly in the top teams — there is now a real possibility that the leaders will come back to the pack and the 2020 competition will get a little tighter.
Take the Eels, Roosters and Sea Eagles, for example:
- How will Dylan Brown fair as the side’s chief playmaker and kicker? Parramatta will miss not only Moses’ control and leadership from halfback, but also his work with the boot (2570 kick meters — 3rd highest in NRL).
- Will Trent Robinson try to replicate Radley’s ball playing with his replacement, or will the Roosters’ style change to suit their new number 13? They will also need to replace Radley’s tireless work off the ball (111 support runs — 2nd highest in NRL).
- And how will Manly produce points without fullback Tom Trbojevic? After six games, Turbo had 4 tries and 7 try assists (equal 2nd in NRL) to be directly responsible for over 68% (11/16) of Manly’s total tries.
How these clubs manage their respective absentees will be a narrative in-and-of-itself in the coming rounds, as coaches prove their worth — or lack thereof — by tinkering with game-plans and team selections.
Roster depth will also be tested as clubs are forced to call upon less established players to fill the shoes of their injured stars. Manly’s top 17, for instance, is considered one of the strongest in the competition on paper, but their depth outside that list is somewhat unproven.
The pressure will be on the top clubs to get these changes right and hold their ladder position, as the lower placed teams sniff an opportunity to claw themselves back into the premiership fight.
Left Scrum-Line
My left-field thought on the NRL this week
Cowboys’ Conundrum
A few big scores and Cowboys’ fans are coming out of the woodwork, celebrating their team’s ability to post the points in the absence of attacking stars Michael Morgan and Valentine Holmes.
Far from getting ahead of ourselves, the combination of young playmakers Scott Drinkwater and Jake Clifford in recent weeks has given Cowboys fans a possible glimpse into the playmaking future of the club — and it looks pretty good.
Both players came into first grade with big wraps and big expectations, but neither has fired consistently enough to warrant the hype. This season, however, Drinkwater and Clifford are combining to post some impressive stats:
Sitting alongside premiership winning and State of Origin halves in this table, Drinkwater and Clifford’s numbers hardly look out of place.
Clifford’s control and playmaking has proven the perfect foil for Drinkwater’s dynamic running game, and the Cowboys’ are starting to reap the rewards.
Their game management and execution this season has markedly improved from last year, where too often grubber kicks went dead in-goal or the wrong option was taken on last tackle. But this season, the Cowboys’ halves are building pressure with clever kicks, or combining effectively across the park:
Drinkwater sweeps around from his usual left side, chiming into the Cowboys’ backline. His presence on the right edge opens up the space in the middle, and Clifford makes them pay.
From what we’ve seen so far this year, only the better halves pairings in the comp are playing with this kind of freedom and fluidity, and will be something to watch out for as the season continues.
So with Reece Robson cementing his spot as an 80-minute hooker and Holmes reportedly not far from a return to fullback, coach Paul Green looks set to have a difficult decision on his hands: where to play the returning Michael Morgan?
The international and State of Origin utility is expected to come back from shoulder surgery sometime in the next month or two, and when fit is undoubtedly one of the Cowboys’ best players. But with Clifford and Drinkwater combining so well and seemingly the future halves pairing in North Queensland, are Morgan’s days in the spine over?
We have seen Morgan fill the centre position for the Maroons admirably in recent series, as Queensland struggled to replace long-serving centres Greg Inglis and Justin Hodges. And while it might at first be seen as a demotion for Morgan to move to centre in club-land, it may be the best decision for the Cowboys and the balance of their side:
Not bad on current form…
Should the Cowboys allow Clifford (22) and Drinkwater (23) to continue developing their combination — not just with each other but with Robson (22) and Holmes (24) as well — rather than crowbarring Morgan back into the halves picture?
With so much youth and talent on their side, this is a spine North Queensland can build a club around moving forward.
Round 8, begin!
Thursday night’s blockbuster between Melbourne Storm and Sydney Roosters shapes as a cracker — since their first matchup in 2013, the scores across fifteen games are locked at 256-apiece.
My early tip for match of the round, however, is Sunday’s clash-of-the-cats; Wests Tigers vs Penrith Panthers. Both teams have played themselves into form over the last few weeks, but Penrith in particular have been up for big games against Melbourne and South Sydney recently.
Will the Tigers’ revamped defence be able to hold out a firing Panthers outfit?
Goodluck to your teams, your tips and your punts.
Glory Glory!
Originally published at https://rlwriters.substack.com.
