NRL: Glory Glory, the footy’s back!
A closer look at what’s on the menu in Redfern this season…
Clear the entrée plates. Cut the pre-dinner small talk.
The main course is here and boy are we hungry.
It’s been ten long weeks since we got a taste of what’s to come in 2020, and footy fans around the nation have been sipping their table water ever since in desperate anticipation for dinner to be served.
Watching both social- and mainstream-media fill the void over this season break has been at times like reading the menu over and over, hoping to find something new. Off field scandals, contract speculations and player predictions have filled our newsfeeds, to the point where I started to lose my appetite for all things rugby league.
But with kick-off only two sleeps away, it’s time to brush off the dinner suits and get ready to feast.
The walking headline.
In the Sydney’s south, Wayne Bennett’s Rabbitohs have spent more than their fair share in the media spotlight, and will be desperate to get back on the field and let their footy do the talking.
Most of the chatter leading up to Friday’s grudge match against the Roosters will be centered around Latrell Mitchell — and understandably so. The enigmatic outside back is always a POI, whether he’s bumping off multiple defenders on his way to the try line, or going camping and fishing in northern NSW.
Seriously…
There will also be whispers of an understrength forward pack, sorely missing the likes of club legends John Sutton and Sam Burgess. There are undeniably questions around the depth of South Sydney’s forward rotation, as well as the fitness of some of their outside backs.
But questions are meant to be answered.
A look at the numbers over recent seasons shows an evolution away from the ‘power game’ that served South Sydney so well in 2014. Without the Burgess brothers (only Tom Burgess remains in 2020) and a host of other middle forwards who dominated the middle of the field, the Rabbitohs began to adjust.
In recent seasons, a left-edge combination featuring the likes of John Sutton, Cody Walker and Greg Inglis made anyone on the Rabbitohs’ left-wing look first class — Robert Jennings cashed in with 19 tries from 21 appearances in 2018, yet has only managed a further 18 first grade games since moving clubs.
The Rabbitohs attack in 2019 was still left-edge dominated (43% left, 31% middle, 26% right) — largely due to Walker’s natural dominance when in attacking territory — but there are signs that under Wayne Bennett, the cardinal & myrtle are developing.
Getting the balance right.
Since Bennett’s arrival in Redfern, arguably his most significant change has been the appointment of club junior Adam Reynolds as captain for 2020. For years, Souths have been led by the powerful, heroic displays of Sutton, Burgess and Inglis, and a physical brand of football has followed. Enter Reynolds.
Renowned as South Sydney’s resident prankster, Reynolds’ evolution from class-clown to club-captain is a testament to his own growth as a player, and to Bennett’s tutelage as coach, both off and on the field.
Recognised for his safe hands and brilliant kicking game, Reynolds’ development as a triple threat (kick, pass or run) has always been a work in progress. Under Bennett, however, the signs are good. In 2019, Reynolds’ ran for 1410 meters, up from an average 823m over the previous four seasons. And while the sample size is small, Reynolds’ running game this season has already netted him a try, two line breaks and five tackle breaks. His awareness and willingness to run the ball already this season shows that Reynolds’ has embraced his role as a leader in the side — Wade Graham shooting out of the line in Round 1 is a perfect example.
Building combinations.
Much of Reynolds’ success this season will come from his growing combination with edge back rower Jaydn Su’a. In recent seasons, hole-hitting forwards like Burgess and Angus Crichton have often had Reynolds’ engaging the defence and short passing at the line. While we haven’t had a chance to see much of Su’a in the red and green yet, he has arguably looked most dangerous when given early ball and room to move, rather than being brought onto the ball.
Players naturally take time to adjust to different playing styles, but this could be a promising combination for the Rabbitohs. Playing early and before the line not only gives his outside men like Su’a room to move, but allows Reynolds’ to adjust to the defence and pick his moments to run.
Fifth tackle options.
Reynolds’ possesses one of the best short kicking games in the comp (28 forced dropouts in 2019), while new fullback Mitchell can also put a deft grubber in behind the line.
Alongside Walker (13 in 2019 ) and Damien Cook’s (18), the Rabbitohs now boast genuine short kicking options in all four spine positions, meaning Souths’ should expect to earn plenty of repeat sets and good field position in 2020.
And if South’s can build pressure with this kicking game, they won’t need a consistently dominant, meter-eating forward pack every week.
Understrength or underrated?
A starting pack of Jaydn Su’A, Cameron Murray, Liam Knight, Tevita Tatola and Tom Burgess features three internationals and a State of Origin rep, with Queensland’s 2019 hero Ethan Lowe warming the bench.
After quietly amassing 50 first grade games since 2018, Tatola finished last season with a 96.6% tackle efficiency and just under 100 running meters per game. At just 23 years of age, Tatola has all the attributes of a consistent workhorse prop that every team needs.
In comparison, the development of Liam Knight since his arrival at Redfern brings an X-factor to Souths’ forward pack that has been provided for so long by Sam Burgess. Aggressive in defence and mobile for a big man, Knight’s ability to find his front and earn a quick play the ball (ala Cam Murray 2019) is crucial to Souths’ chances in 2020 as he makes the transition to lock.
It is Tom Burgess (122 meters per game in 2019), however, who has the chance to take leadership of Souths’ forward pack in the absence of so many stars. Tom was one of Great Britain’s best in a disappointing tour last year, and Rabbitohs fans like yours truely will be hoping Tom steps up as the sole Burgess brother this year and announces himself as a premier front rower.
He hasn’t needed to so far in his career, but at 28 years of age the time is now and there are no excuses.
A lack of experienced big men in the rotation means that developing forwards Tom Amone (106 running meters, 33 post contact) and Patrick Mago (6 tackle breaks, one try), who were both dynamic in the Charity Shield, will be expected to step up this season and silence those critical of Souths’ forward depth.
The game changer.
The introduction of the 6-again penalty and the return to one referee has everyone speculating on the ramifications. While nothing is certain, it is fair to suggest that these changes will compliment the more mobile forward packs of the competition. And it seems Bennett has the Rabbitohs well equipped for this transition.
What Souths’ lack in sheer size and power, they make up for in mobility and effort areas. The Rabbitohs ranked highly in line engagements (1st, 586), support plays (3rd, 3509) and decoy runs (4th, 1312) in 2019, suggesting their forwards are running in pairs or with shape, rather than relying on brute force to hit the ball up the field.
Not to mention Souths have the most dangerous running hooker in the comp in Damien Cook playing off Cam Murray, who had the fastest average play the ball speed in 2019. If the rule changes work as expected, South Sydney will surely look to take advantage of this and burrow up the middle third of the field.
Let’s eat.
But alas, it’s all just conjecture until the footy is served back up this weekend. A Friday night dinner-date with arch rivals Sydney Roosters is about as good as it gets, and both Souths’ and Easts’ fans will be watching closely to see how Latrell Mitchell fares against his former club.
This rivalry seems to bring out the best in players, and it’s certainly brought back my appetite for footy.
Cheers and Glory Glory!
