A new wave of conference realignment is sweeping the country
Few things are more exciting to college sports fans than conference realignment.
There’s just something about it — the new match-ups we might get to see, the drama of schools fighting to improve their standing and not get left behind — that just makes it so compelling. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a conference realignment headline that I didn’t click on. I know I’m not alone.
Well, if you relish conference realignment as much as I do, you’re in luck. A new wave is sweeping through the FCS and will likely be headed for the FBS soon. It could have major ramifications for college basketball too.
First, let me get you caught up on all the moves that will happen on July 1 of this year (after the spring FCS football season), and July 1 of next year. Then we’ll get to what it could mean for FBS football and college basketball.
Changes coming in Summer 2021
- Florida A&M and Bethune-Cookman will leave the MEAC and join the SWAC, which will grow to 12 teams.
- North Carolina A&T will leave the MEAC to join the Big South, which will grow to 12 teams (9 for football). The MEAC will shrink to 8 teams (6 for football).
- Abilene Christian, Lamar, Sam Houston State and Stephen F. Austin will leave the Southland for the WAC, which will grow to 13 teams.
- Central Arkansas will leave the Southland for the ASUN. The Southland will shrink to 8 teams (6 for football).
- Eastern Kentucky and Jacksonville State will leave the OVC for the ASUN. The ASUN will grow to 12 teams, while the OVC will shrink to 10 teams (7 for football).
- St. Thomas (in Minnesota) received a special waiver to jump from Div. III straight to Div. I. The Tommies will join the Summit League (for Olympic sports) and the non-scholarship Pioneer Football League. The Summit League will have 10 teams and the Pioneer League will have 11.
Changes coming in Summer 2022
- Southern Utah will leave the Big Sky for the WAC, and the WAC will start an FCS football league with 7 teams.
- Chicago State will leave the WAC, keeping the WAC at 13 full members. The conference will likely look to add a 14th member (8th for football).
- The ASUN will launch an FCS football league with at least 5 members (Central Arkansas, Eastern Kentucky, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State and North Alabama).
- Kennesaw State and North Alabama, the two current ASUN full members that play football in the Big South as part of a partnership between the two conferences, will move their football programs to the ASUN. The Big South will still have 12 full members, but will shrink to 7 for football.
Got all that?
What it means for FBS football
With the WAC and ASUN starting football leagues in 2022, the number of FCS football conferences will grow from 13 to 15. And there are reports that both conferences are considering moving up to the FBS level in the next several years.
In fact, the ASUN plans to keep growing, with a goal of reaching 20 teams then splitting into two conferences: one for football-playing schools and one for non-football schools.
Why is all this change happening now? Well, it likely has a lot to do with the fact that the FBS football scene is ripe for change this decade. It behooves FCS schools and conferences with FBS aspirations to get their ducks in a row now, before the shakeup starts at the FBS level.
The last time we saw major conference realignment at the FBS level — every single Division I conference had at least one change in membership between 2010 and 2014— it came at a time when conferences were negotiating new media rights deals.
That’s about to happen again. The Big Ten’s current media rights deal ends in 2023. The SEC and Pac-12 deals end in 2024. The Big 12’s deal ends in 2025. And, perhaps most importantly, the College Football Playoff’s 12-year deal ends in 2025.
No one is quite sure what’s going to happen between now and then. Could the Big 12 try to poach some teams from the financially-struggling Pac-12? Could Texas and/or Oklahoma have eyes for the SEC or Big Ten?
It’s possible none of the Power 5 conferences will add any teams. But the Group of 5 will almost see changes.
UConn already left the AAC. Boise State is at odds with the Mountain West. Old Dominion is no longer happy with Conference USA.
And if a bunch of new schools move up to the FBS level, I’d expect the Mountain West, Sun Belt and Conference USA to scoop some of those programs up.
I also wouldn’t be surprised to see more programs go independent in football if they find they can make more money through exclusive streaming deals that they don’t have to split with 11 or 13 other teams. Streaming services weren’t a factor during the last round of realignment.
Boise State probably has a big enough brand to succeed as an independent. And I think this could be an option for USC, the biggest brand in the one Power 5 conference that is lagging behind the rest. (That’s a topic for another newsletter.)
How college basketball will be affected
While the last round of conference realignment was almost entirely about football, this round will probably be much more favorable to basketball.
Matt Brown, who publishes a very informative college football newsletter called Extra Points, recently wrote about how schools at the FCS level — where TV money is not a big source of revenue — are looking to cut travel costs and align with schools that have similar budgets and values.
It’s already happened at the FBS level too. UConn left the hodgepodge AAC to join the Big East, which is full of other northern schools that prioritize basketball above all else.
This should be good news for college basketball fans because it will likely lead to more conference games between regional rivals, and fewer sprawling conferences full of schools that have little to nothing in common.
The ASUN made headlines by adding enough football-playing schools to form an FCS conference, but it also added strength in basketball. Eastern Kentucky and Jacksonville State both have a higher NET rating than 8 of the 9 current ASUN teams.
And, remember, the ASUN’s ultimate goal is to grow to 20 teams and then split into two separate conferences, one for football-playing schools and one for non-football playing schools. That keeps schools with the same priorities together and also adds another automatic NCAA tournament bid for a mid-major program.
In the WAC, Stephen F. Austin and Sam Houston State are both really solid basketball additions to a conference that already has New Mexico State and Grand Canyon, which sees itself as the next Gonzaga. It’s possible the WAC could be a two-bid league from time to time.
What comes next?
In the next few months, keep an eye out for the ASUN’s next addition. With only 5 schools that currently play scholarship FCS football*, the conference will need to add at least one more to get to 6, the minimum that a conference must have to earn an automatic bid to the FCS playoffs.
(*Stetson and Liberty are ASUN members, but Stetson plays non-scholarship football in the Pioneer League and Liberty is an FBS independent. Both will stay where they are.)
Austin Peay and Chattanooga are among the schools rumored as possible additions for the ASUN.
I’ll also be keeping an eye out to see what the MEAC, OVC and Southland do now. All three conferences lost schools in this initial spurt of realignment, so they could be looking to grow or could be vulnerable to more raids from other conferences.
I don’t know what will happen, but I expect the next few years to be reminiscent of the chaotic conference realignment we saw a decade ago. The possibilities are endless!
Thanks so much for reading! I know this was a long one. If you have thoughts and feedback, I’d love to hear from you. Every newsletter will be posted to this website, so you can comment there. You can also email me directly at this address.
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