Predicting the 2025 Boston Marathon Cut-Off Time
If you’re waiting for it to come down, don’t hold your breath
Last year, the Boston Marathon saw a record number of qualified applicants, and that led to a steep cut-off time of 5:29. Since then, there’s been plenty of speculation about what this year’s cut-off time will be.
Will there be more qualified applicants this year — resulting in a deeper cut-off time? Was last year a fluke, or was it a sign that the Boston Marathon needs to revise its qualifying times?
If you were holding out hope for a return to normalcy, the decision by the Chicago Marathon to lower its qualifying times should give you a clue about how likely that is.
I’ve been meaning to dig into the data around the Boston qualifying times and come up with a prediction of what this year’s cut-off time will be. To do so required a good deal of data collection, so I’ve been putting it off.
But now summer is drawing to a close and the registration period will be open soon, so I figured it’s now or never. I got down to work, collected a ton of data, and put together a detailed analysis.
