How to Run a 2020 BQ Time at the 2018 New York City Marathon

An analysis of BQ times and pacing strategies in the New York City marathon.

Image courtesy of https://www.flickr.com/photos/36665622@N00/253527065

Introduction

In this post we use results from the last 11 years of the New York City Marathon (2006–2017, inclusive) — 488, 722 runners, including 303,394 males and 185,328 females — to explore how often participants achieve Boston Marathon qualification (BQ) standards, answering the following questions as we go:

1. How often do male and female runners of different ages achieve their BQ times?
2. When they achieve their BQs, how much margin do they typically enjoy and is this influenced by age?
3. When runners fail to achieve their BQ time, how much do they miss by, and is this influenced by their age?
4. How do the pacing patterns of those who achieve their BQ times differ from those who miss theirs?
5. Are some pacing patterns (e.g. positive vs negative splits) more commonly associated with BQ times than others?

At the end of this article we will provide specific pacing advice, for male and female runners, across the different age groups, as to the pacing targets they should aim for in order to achieve their BQ time. This advice will be based…