How to Run a 2020 BQ Time at the 2018 New York City Marathon

An analysis of BQ times and pacing strategies in the New York City marathon.

barrysmyth
Nov 3, 2018 · 13 min read

Introduction

The New Boston Marathon Qualification Standard

From https://www.baa.org/races/boston-marathon/enter/qualify

BQ Rates in New York

Figure 1. BQ rates and ratios for male and female runners at the New York City Marathon (2006–2017).

The BQ Margin

Figure 2. BQ margins for men and women who hit (a) and miss (a) their BQ standard.

Negative/Positive Splits and BQ Rates

Figure 3. (a) Negative split rates for men and women; (b) BQ rates for men and women who run negative or positive spits.

Pacing Strategy and BQ Rates

Figure 4. The pacing profiles (relative 5km paces) for runners who succeed or fail to achieve their BQ times.

Pacing a BQ Attempt in New York?

Positive Splits

Table 1. Mins/mile BQ pacing for a male runner targetting a positive split.
Table 2. Mins/mile BQ pacing for a female runner targetting a positive split.

Negative Splits

Table 3. Mins/mile BQ pacing for a male runner targetting a negative split.
Table 4. Mins/mile BQ pacing for a female runner targetting a negative split.

Conclusions

Appendix — Kilometer Pacing

Positive Splits

Table 5. Mins/km BQ pacing for a male runner targetting a positive split.
Table 6. Mins/km BQ pacing for a female runner targetting a positive split.

Negative Splits

Table 7. Mins/km BQ pacing for a male runner targetting a negative split.
Table 8. Mins/km BQ pacing for a female runner targetting a negative split.

Running with Data

A collection of articles at the intersection between data…

barrysmyth

Written by

Professor of Computer Science at University College Dublin. Focus on AI/ML and recommender systems, with applications in e-commerce, media, and health.

Running with Data

A collection of articles at the intersection between data science and endurance running.

barrysmyth

Written by

Professor of Computer Science at University College Dublin. Focus on AI/ML and recommender systems, with applications in e-commerce, media, and health.

Running with Data

A collection of articles at the intersection between data science and endurance running.

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