How to run a Boston Qualifying Time at the 2018 Chicago Marathon

An analysis of BQ times and pacing strategies in the Chicago marathon.

Image courtesy of https://www.flickr.com/photos/149561324@N03/37542523766

Introduction

In this post we use results from the last 13 years of the Chicago Marathon (2005–2017, inclusive) — 465, 052 runners, including 257,308 males and 207,744 females — to explore how often participants achieve Boston Marathon qualification (BQ) standards, answering the following questions as we go:

1. How often do male and female runners of different ages achieve their BQ times?
2. When they achieve their BQs, how much margin do they typically enjoy and is this influenced by age?
3. When runners fail to achieve their BQ time, how much do they miss by, and is this influenced by their age?
4. How do the pacing patterns of those who achieve their BQ times differ from those who miss theirs?
5. Are some pacing patterns (e.g. positive vs negative splits) more commonly associated with BQ times than others?

At the end of this article we will provide specific pacing advice, for male and female runners, across the different age groups, as to the pacing targets they should aim for in order to achieve their BQ time. This advice will be based on the…