COIN TALK is produced in partnership with Medium and hosted by Aaron Lammer and Jay Caspian Kang. Press “Listen to the story” above to play the episode. (You can also subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Google Play, download the MP3, or email us at firstname.lastname@example.org)
Aaron Lammer: Last we talked, me and you went on, I would describe as extended riff about how stable bitcoin was and how it was getting boring because the price never changed. This was nearly a week ago.
Jay Kang: Do we have to use the word extended?
Aaron Lammer: It was an extended-
Jay Kang: I would say that we went on a riff, which makes us look less bad.
Aaron Lammer: I’m going to say I might upgrade it to a jam session. We were really jamming on this topic.
Jay Kang: The part that I find most damning for us is that we did not talk about the price for like four straight months. We didn’t mention the price ever, and then finally we were like … And I don’t remember whose fault it was, I assumed that we share culpability here, but we were like, “Let’s talk about the price.”
Aaron Lammer: Since it didn’t come out, I’m going to say, I think I brought it up by making a joke about how our editor, James could copy and paste the robot voice just reading 6,253 every week and no one would even notice.
Jay Kang: That would probably be right.
Aaron Lammer: So that is how I lost a considerable amount of portfolio value. I tested the gods with a small joke.
Jay Kang: Well, listen, your bitcoin value is exactly the same. And so that’s all that matters as we both know.
Aaron Lammer: I don’t even look at the price because I know my bitcoin value is stable.
Jay Kang: Yeah. And when the real flipping in happens, when bitcoin takes over the US dollar, your US dollar value won’t matter. A bitcoin will probably be worth $6 billion US dollars because the US dollar will be worthless.
Aaron Lammer: Okay. So there’s two big bitcoin moves. It dropped below 6,000 and was hovering in the 5,000, mid-5000s. And then as we tape this, in the last 24 hours, another huge crash down to where it’s testing 4,100-ish.
Jay Kang: Is there prices that you and I haven’t seen since the China crash? Do you remember that? Like that was our first big crash, was when there was like a series of shady, impossible to translate flyers that people were posting on twitter saying that China had banned bitcoin, and the price dropped by 60% in something like two hours.
Aaron Lammer: It’s not a crypto hoax if it’s not thin and sketchy and Photoshopped.
Jay Kang: You know what? I will say that that doesn’t happen as much anymore, and I’m kind of depressed by it. It was better, I thought crypto was better when we were all trying to put Korean … I don’t have to do this because I could read Korean at the level of a second grader, but like when we were putting Korean newspaper stories into Google Translate and trying to figure out what they meant. Crypto was a lot more fun back then. Now it’s just depressing news, after depressing news, after depressing news.
Aaron Lammer: All right. I don’t think either of us know why these crashes happen. I’m going way out on a limb here. I’m going out on a limb and I’m going to say, regardless of why I think the crash happened, you will probably say that’s bullshit.
Jay Kang: No, no, I’m breaking from protocol here.
Aaron Lammer: I love it.
Jay Kang: In the past I’ve said that the price of Bitcoin is its own thing. It exists almost as an autonomous state, and that we just watch it change and we have no idea of what’s going on. There are enough similarities, speaking of like the old fun days of crypto that I think that maybe we can hash out some sort of small argument as to why this is happening, and I’m going to make it right now.
Aaron Lammer: Hash it out.
Jay Kang: Do you remember back in the early days of this podcast or maybe even in the basement tape era when Roger Ver got in his second fight, let’s say, after bitcoin cash?
Aaron Lammer: After bitcoin cash?
Jay Kang: Yes. It was after bitcoin cash had launched.
Aaron Lammer: Because I’m talking about like bitcoin cash two: electric boogaloo as kind of a follow through.
Jay Kang: It really was. And it was his day in which it was actually quite incredible where large … you could see it on the blockchain, Roger Ver was moving large amounts of bitcoin in an attempt to crash, allegedly, crash the price of bitcoin and doing massive sell offs, and the price of bitcoin cash was spiking and nobody really knew what to do. I think bitcoin at the time, it was probably around like $6,000 or something like that. Bitcoin cash went up like 120% and people were trying to catch the knives. I don’t know if that’s going up or going down.
Aaron Lammer: People were trying to stab each other in the face.
Jay Kang: Don’t mess with that. Well, Roger Ver’s back, and he is back associated with a large move in crypto, although this is crypto down, it’s another fork. It’s a bitcoin cash fork, and it also involves another one of our favorite figures, which is Craig ‘not Satoshi’ Wright.
Aaron Lammer: Fake Toshi. Not to be confused with Extra Toshi.
Jay Kang: Yeah. Who is the Real Satoshi?
Aaron Lammer: Wouldn’t it be a shocking, what if Craig Wright was Extra Toshi.
Jay Kang: I’m not willing to entertain that possibility because I seek Craig Wright’s writing-
Aaron Lammer: Well, this whole scenario kind of resembles that. It’s like all of your crypto villains all in like a one cinematic universe.
Jay Kang: I know. I feel nostalgic about the glory days of crypto because it’s like the same guys are back.
Aaron Lammer: It’s like The Expendables of crypto.
Jay Kang: Craig Wright, for those who don’t know, Craig Wright and Roger Ver, who own a lot of bitcoin cash are having a fight and Craig Wright wants to make something called Bitcoin SV, which stands for Satoshi’s Vision, which is his vision as he claims. And then Roger Ver wants to make something called Bitcoin ABC, which is adjustable blockchain or something like that.
Aaron Lammer: Adjustable block capacity, I think.
Jay Kang: And there’s all this technical stuff that nobody who listens to this show really cares about, but if you want to know about it, you can read about it.
Aaron Lammer: They came up with the name ABC before they knew what it was an acronym for, right?
Jay Kang: Yeah, exactly. And then they reverse engineered it.
Aaron Lammer: I feel like that’s one of those acronyms, I’m like, “That doesn’t quite roll off the tongue, but okay.”
Jay Kang: I think the long and short of it, or the short of it, the dirtiest way for us to explain this is just saying, “Look, they have some argument about block size like they had before, but the real argument is about something that about like certain command lines that are in the code that neither of us care about.”
Aaron Lammer: There are these things called opcodes. I’m taking all this information from the Breaker, great magazine, shout outs, that are basically like little hooks in the scripting language. Satoshi defined a bunch of them, some of which are used in bitcoin, some of which aren’t. Bitcoin ABC proposed that they would add some-
Jay Kang: The important thing you need to know is that these two guys disagree about how to do this shockingly, and it is the extension of an acrimonious few weeks for them in which Craig Wright wrote an email. Did you see this email that he sent to Roger Ver?
Aaron Lammer: Yeah.
Jay Kang: I’m going to read it because it’s so funny.
Aaron Lammer: I would say, Jay, you are, I would say a connoisseur of the angry email, and this is a man who … You can tell this man’s written thousands of angry emails in his life.
Jay Kang: The first thing I want to say is that it’s written much like a newspaper column in which every sentence is its own paragraph.
Aaron Lammer: Are you going to read in an Australian accent or no?
Jay Kang: No. If you want a war, I will do two years of no trade, nothing. In the war, no coin can trade. If you want ABC, you want shit coins, welcome to bankruptcy. It was nice knowing you. Bitcoin will die before ABC shits on it, blah, blah, blah. And then the last few lines are, I am Satoshi. Have a nice life. You will now discover me when pissed off, and no, you could have had proof, your choice. Fuck off. Craig.
Aaron Lammer: Craig Wright has been walking one of the most difficult lines of saying that he is Satoshi, but no one has the right to know whether he is Satoshi. He’s a private citizen and it doesn’t have to reveal this, though he continually reveals that he’s Satoshi whatever he’s in an argument.
Jay Kang: Yeah. And this one has, “I am the Satoshi,” in capital letters.
Aaron Lammer: I knew there’s something good in there where he was like, “You will die before I shit on you.” What does that mean?
Jay Kang: So the question that we have about the crash is that, it used to be when these types of big whales used to do things that the price of bitcoin would move. It’s because these guys used to own, and probably still on a shitload of cryptocurrencies, and so when they do things, people notice and it shows up. And the question is, whether or not that’s still true. And I would say that maybe it’s still true. Maybe this has shocked something in the crypto space where people are getting spooked or some people with large amounts of crypto are being like, “I’m out of here, I’m going somewhere else.”
And maybe that’s what is, after months of stability, actually responsible for these two drops.
Aaron Lammer: I don’t really buy that because I just don’t really see what BCH has to do with bitcoin anymore. When that first split happened, it was a pretty momentous occasion because it was like, “This might not work, this might destroy bitcoin, this might be the rift that both sides lose.” And what actually happened was in a pretty orderly manner, people were like, “No.” And I believe that people mostly rejected it because of the attitude of the people on the BCH side, the big blockers. They’re just like the kind of people I don’t want to hang out with it, I don’t want them to be in charge of anything.
Jay Kang: Yeah, but at the same time, that’s why I was not mentioning the fork itself, but just the day in which like Roger Ver decided to troll everybody, the price didn’t move just because he was doing stuff. There might be people like Jihan Wu, who is smarter than these two guys but does own a lot of BCH, and probably has a lot of bitcoin who might also be making moves. My point is just that I think that we could plausibly say that maybe there’s some big players who are around these guys who are responsible for these types of movements.
Aaron Lammer: I buy what you’re saying. Jihan Wu is the like third super villain in this a poster. They’re like at the front with the bazookas in their hands, and he’s like in the back with like a machete or something.
Jay Kang: Or he’s like in the back in a bulletproof car watching these two clowns fuck each other.
Aaron Lammer: That was kind of what I was thinking also. I was like, “Is Jihan Wu like … All these guys who already made a ton of money, what’s the point of all this stuff?” I guess it’s like cartels fighting cartels. The whole thing feels to me like there was a rift in Bitcoin, there was the father and his two sons, and both of them were like, “I should be in charge,. I’m the chosen son.” And they couldn’t get along, so they walked out into the wilderness to start their own civilization, and now they’re just fighting with each other out where no one cares.
But the part that seems like maybe, if I were to describe what part of it I think might be affecting the price, it seemed like the war in the first round was like Roger Ver was like moving big chunks of bitcoin around, and there was this whole idea of, “I’m going to pull my support and you guys are all going to pay for it,” which didn’t really happen. But the hash power has supplanted tokens themselves. Or I guess they’re not tokens, what do you call coins themselves, as the artillery in this war.
So now you have things like BITMAIN’s hash power, which I know was primarily aimed at BCH anyway, but it does affect the overall bitcoin ecosystem. If he goes and pulls all of his weapons to go fight in this fucking stupid war out in the wilderness, it does affect bitcoin’s hash. It affects how much attention there is on bitcoin mining. I guess I can see it kind of makes everyone look kind of immature and stupid.
Jay Kang: I think that really is sort of my sense, which is just that like BITMAIN, some of these huge places that do have holdings in bitcoin cash, what are they doing? I don’t know if Roger Ver has enough bitcoin left to, even if he sold all of it, let’s say, that it would make any difference. Probably not. And Craig Wright, who knows. But are there people who are involved with bitcoin cash quietly who are having these hash power fights? Are they getting spooked in some sort of way or are they making a move that we might not know? And the only reason why I think that is because this is the only bit of news that we know about. And it is also the first time in months when anything has happened.
And so I guess it’s just human nature to draw a line between the two. At the same time, I will admit that I think that my inquiry into all of this, or my conclusion is based for the fact that I miss the days of crypto when we used to tell these stories, and they were fun. It’s a lot less fun to just be like, “Well, you know, who knows. No news matters.” It’s a very bad, boring take to have.
Aaron Lammer: You’re the godfather of the news doesn’t matter movement?
Jay Kang: No, I know, but I’ve just-
Aaron Lammer: Oh, you’ve disavowed it? Okay, thank you. I appreciate it.
Jay Kang: I’ve gone the other side. I’m like Glenn Beck, how Glenn Beck changes sides.
Aaron Lammer: This one was a little bit of a ray of sunshine in my life. Just reading some of the details of it. I’ve talked many times on this program, if I were to describe to disreputable characters, and I included the details of Craig Wright and Roger Ver, you’d be like, “I don’t know, man. This novel is a little literal.” He’s the guy who got arrested for selling online fireworks, and then he became like a bitcoin evangelists? Or like Craig Wright. So they were basically describing where did Craig Wright get the idea to do bitcoin SV? Why is he doing this.
Because bitcoin ABC isn’t really a fork, bitcoin ABC is just BCH doing what it wanted to do. That’s the the main thread. And I guess he still works for Nchain, which is like the scammy company that he was trying to like move bitcoin patents to when he was still riding hard for fake Toshi status. And that is now owned by, I don’t know, maybe not owned by, but associated party to that is this guy named Calvin Ayre, who, Jay, you’re going to enjoy his background. He’s the founder of Bodog.
Jay Kang: Oh yeah, I know this guy.
Aaron Lammer: And Craig Wright says that they were like commiserating over how fucked up Roger Ver’s plans, or the ABC plans were and they realized that they had to do this to save Satoshi’s vision. This is literally a man who made hundreds of millions of dollars off of online gambling, then put it into bitcoin made even more. He is, I believe, his excellency and whatever Caribbean nation that he lives in right now, and is building some sort of insane crypto-
Jay Kang: $100 million house.
Aaron Lammer: Well, I think it’s like a resort. I think it’s like a place to go with the other crypto rich. Sandals for crypto. This is where Satoshi’s vision is coming from. It’s straight out of bought Caribbean citizenship. $100 million dollar development. That is who he is standing up for Satoshi’s vision here.
Jay Kang: You know who else is from the Caribbean?
Aaron Lammer: Who is that? Oh, Extra Toshi?
Jay Kang: Yeah.
Aaron Lammer: So are you saying that Extra Toshi might know Calvin Ayre?
Jay Kang: Yeah. Maybe Calvin Ayre is Extra Toshi.
Aaron Lammer: Hey, I’m just going to pause things here briefly to tell you about a podcast, yes, another podcast. Another crypto podcast called Late Confirmation. It’s a daily news digest from Coindesk with episodes coming out Monday through Friday that cover the day’s news in crypto and blockchain. If you’re listening to this, you’ll notice that we are pretty much at least a week late on talking about the crash, which is an eternity in crypto. If you’d like up to the minute news, get this show. It’s run by a rotating list of hosts from the news pit of Coindesk. Think of it as NPR’s up first, but for Crypto.
You can subscribe today by searching for Late Confirmation on Apple Podcast or wherever you’re listening to this podcast.
Jay Kang: In reality, I think part of the reason why we were searching for these questions is because we weren’t really expecting this, right? Were you expecting this type of crash?
Aaron Lammer: Well, if I had been suspecting it, I would have sold my bitcoin.
Jay Kang: No, I don’t believe that because you never sell your bitcoin.
Aaron Lammer: Well, I sell it at a bad time, so I just don’t sell it at the right time ever.
Jay Kang: Oh yeah. Yeah, that’s true. There’s not enough spice for you to catch a bottom, I guess we’ll put it that way.
Aaron Lammer: It’s all the same. I would’ve thought 6,600 was the bottom and bought it with whatever cash I had. I always think we’re at the bottom.
Jay Kang: Well, do you think that now?
Aaron Lammer: No. Well, let’s talk about it. So what is the [Kang line 00:20:00] here? The Kang line is 3,300?
Jay Kang: Yeah. This was established over a year ago I think. Right now at 8:21 PM Eastern Standard Time on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving, bitcoin’s at 4,289. The Kang line, I think it was always like 3,300 I think, or 3,500, somewhere around there.
Aaron Lammer: I’m going to put it at 3,300, just because that’s what you are saying today.
Jay Kang: This was line where I would buy back into bitcoin at.
Aaron Lammer: And I’d like to give a little credit to my co-host here. He was cheering for the cute Kang line when we were at like 9,800, when we had just crashed below, he was like, “I’ll buy at 3,300.” We were like, “Shut up.”
Jay Kang: I think that, I don’t know, man, like we had this fight with-
Aaron Lammer: You want lower now?
Jay Kang: The ledger status this morning in our telegram groups said that, “I definitely would not buy at 3,300 because I would get scared, I do feel like, ‘Fuck it. I’m still not going to buy.’” I denounce that because I said that I was a man with integrity and that I had set the Kang line and I needed to hold the Kang line. But right now, I don’t know, man, it just seems grim, I don’t quite get-
Aaron Lammer: Did you set the Kang line or did your dad set the Kang line?
Jay Kang: My dad set the Kang line.
Aaron Lammer: I feel like the Kang line was originally your dad saying, “I’ll buy bitcoin back when it’s two or $3,000.” So we’re all like, “Ha, ha, ha.”
Jay Kang: Yeah. And this was when bitcoin, it was like $15,000 or something like that. And he was like, “I’m not buying that, I’ll buy when hit’s $3,000.”
Aaron Lammer: The Kang line is in some ways your birthright.
Jay Kang: Yeah, exactly. So I have to follow it, I think.
Aaron Lammer: I would think that the bottom very easily could go there. If people weren’t buying the bejesus out of 4,100, I don’t see why it can’t go to almost any low. But I feel like we heard doomsday people being like, “It could go back to the 3,000.” And that makes me for no reason think, “Eh, maybe that’s the bottom.”
Jay Kang: Yeah. I don’t know, and it would be very weird for me to be right about anything. And so, I think if I bought at 3,300, that the chances are that it would keep going down. But I don’t know, I can’t think of a compelling reason why it would go back up. Just like before when we would have these crashes, they would almost immediately spike back up, and it was almost comical, we believed that we could time it like, “Oh, it’s crashing, good, we’re going to buy these dips and it’s going to just snap back up to $16,000 or whatever.” And that just hasn’t happened in a while, it just is like this slow march down.
It’s like it looks like a bunch of steps or something like that where you crash, flat, crash, flat, crash. And I don’t know, I haven’t seen any evidence that there’s this interest to have it go back up. And I think that if I did get back in and then it went back up another like 50, 60%, I might just sell it because I just don’t see the reason why there would be momentum to go back up to like eight, nine, $10,000. Maybe I’m wrong.
Aaron Lammer: I feel the momentum would happen, and this is what I keep thinking it’s going to happen and it’s not happened, so it’s probably not going to happen. If we bounced right now just back to where we were two weeks ago at 6,500, people who caught the bottom, would have made a 50% gain.
Jay Kang: More than that.
Aaron Lammer: Or more, and I don’t see why it can’t pop up to 6,000 something dollars because to speak in the ledger status in terms, the fundamentals haven’t really changed much. You can say that like because Craig Wright lead the Satoshi’s Vision crew to a different square in the desert than the Roger Ver crew that the fundamentals of bitcoin are really that different.
Jay Kang: Yeah, that’s true.
Aaron Lammer: If we could get a bounce like that, then you would hear people and people always cite the bottom. They don’t cite where you reasonably would have bought, they site like if you bought the exact bottom. And people will say like, “Oh, you made a 70% gain if you bought the bottom like two weeks ago.” Then I see the path back to $8,000, $9,000, $10,000, that mania coming back, where you start seeing the easy money, but this whole stock thing, like what’s happening in the US stock market right now is not working out the way it was supposed to in relation to bitcoin and the way we were talking about it a year ago.
We always said people would flee descending stock markets, particularly in the tech industry into bitcoin. Couldn’t have a better time than right now, you’ve got dirt cheap bitcoin and I do not hear about anyone selling their Amazon and buying bitcoin.
Jay Kang: Yeah. I don’t know if these two things, if the bitcoin market and how correlated it is with the stock market, but I do wonder if this had happened, if this massive sell off of tech stocks that happened in November, last November. I wonder if it would’ve happened then, if people would have reinvested in cryptocurrency, even at that high price because there was so much hope around it. Now, I don’t know what people are going to put their money into, other than uranium stocks, that’s one that I hear quite a bit.
Aaron Lammer: I think you have a limited sample size. There’s literally one person talking about uranium stocks, and this is in Telegram group.
Jay Kang: They talk about it in WallStreetBets, there were sub Reddit quite a bit.
Aaron Lammer: I think you need to look at who you’re spending time around.
Jay Kang: Or maybe they’re putting all their money into like legal New Jersey sports betting or something like that. I have no idea, but I think you’re right. I don’t think that these people are putting their money into bitcoin, what I think they’re probably doing is selling off their tech stocks and just holding cash because they’re terrified of what might happen in the next few weeks, which they’re right to be, I’m terrified.
Aaron Lammer: Look, there’s nowhere to hide. I already lost as much crypto money as I possibly could have imagined, but if I hadn’t put that money in crypto, I would’ve lost a more modest but still significant amount of money in tech stocks, which is what I would have put it into otherwise.
Jay Kang: Yeah, it’s true. It’s for the first time, the two, one is … I would say one is much worse than the other, but one is not stable while the other one is spiking around all over the place, they’re just sort of both depressingly dropping almost every day.
Aaron Lammer: There’s something about the whole SV vs ABC thing where I’m like, “You guys, this is not the time.” People are wondering whether it’s worth it all. This is an insanely like tone deaf squabble to be having right now.
Jay Kang: Yeah. They don’t care though because they’re rich and they live in like whatever, some St. Martins or something like that. And I think if you’re living in St. Martin’s, you don’t even know what the tone is, there’s no tone to be deaf to, and you just do your own thing and you have fights with other rich guys. It’s honestly what I wish my life was.
Aaron Lammer: I think Roger Ver did threaten, he was like, “After I destroy ABC, I’m going to come for you bitcoin and you Ethereum.” He says, he’s going to start hash wars with everyone.
Jay Kang: That’s good for it.
Aaron Lammer: It’s good for the podcast, I think.
Jay Kang: He says something fun to talk about. I’m all for this podcast being about Roger Ver and Craig Wright and John McAfee and a bunch of crazy people again. I don’t know if I can handle a talk about the future of bitcoin. I just want some drama.
Aaron Lammer: I think they just green lit the McAfee movie, so we got that coming up in our future.
Jay Kang: Who’s playing McAfee? Like Mark Wahlberg or something?
Aaron Lammer: I can’t remember. More to come on that. Do you think this SEC stuff has any impact at all? The SEC stuff relates to people who are running pretty transparent scams. But, it’s not good news.
Jay Kang: I don’t think so. I would say yes, but when did it actually have any real effect? We’ve been dealing with SEC stuff for nine months, and what it generally does is it just wipes out a shit coin and then they just move on.
Aaron Lammer: I’ve heard some people advancing the narrative, like people who are legal law enforcement professionals, like the way you go after the mob is you go after some really easy cases and then you go after the big boss. We’re talking about cartel tactics here.
Jay Kang: It’s like how Rudy Giuliani took down the mafia in New York when he was attorney general.
Aaron Lammer: And the ferrets.
Jay Kang: Did he take down the Ferrets or did he just start a hate campaign against the ferrets? I’m not sure he took them down.
Aaron Lammer: Now, I have to say, I’m not a fan of Rudy Giuliani, but I’m on his side. If a man repeatedly calls your call-in show to talk about ferrets regulations, you should be allowed to just at least shut him.
Jay Kang: He had like two good moments and that was one of them.
Aaron Lammer: I would like to see if you … I know that you’re involved in the documentary world right now, a documentary that was like, you know when they have two characters and you’re watching both of their lives in sync, Rudy Giuliani on one side, that ferret guy on the other side, we’ve got to find that guy.
Jay Kang: I wonder if he’s still alive. I think life is hard for-
Aaron Lammer: He sounded like he had a lot of spirit.
Jay Kang: You might be going into a nonexistent Bill de Blasio show right now, and talk to you about ferrets into like a dial tone or maybe he’s into cryptocurrency, that is also a possibility for that guy.
Aaron Lammer: Quite possibly. But the idea would be that they are stringing together a bunch of singles to eventually go for a home run. And I don’t know if that home run is Ethereum, or someone lower on the chart. It seems like most people generally believe that Ethereum is in the clear now, but you don’t actually have to get Ethereum, if you get, the bottom one third of that ecosystem even, that’s a lot of stuff that will go away. I think there’s even discussion of refunding Ethereum to people, which that’s not going to happen.
Jay Kang: I have a question for you, which is, and I’ve asked this before, and we keep going down past milestones, but is there going to ever be a brace of crypto, where you’ll just get out of it and forget that it ever happened and it’ll be a sad footnote to your financial life?
Aaron Lammer: There’s a price lower than this that I will sell at, you’re saying?
Jay Kang: Well, where you’d just be like, “Look, this stuff is obviously just like a beanie babies, and I don’t want to pay any more attention to it anymore, I just think that I got scammed.” Is that a price based thing for you? Because I know that we would all say no in a perfect world, but everybody is an emotional person and their general conclusions are tied to the emotions of the way that their money works in crypto. Do you think there’s a point where you’ll just be like, “Fuck this,” and just exit?
Aaron Lammer: I think I’m past that point. I think I saw that point along the road, and I should have gotten off and taking a piss there, but I just let it blaze right by me. And now that I’m down more than 50%, it just feels like I’m just going to ride it. I would like to get out, at a breakeven point, I would like to reduce my exposure to crypto, mostly for psychological reasons, but I feel at this point to speak like a poker player, I’m better off continuing to play this hand at the depth, I mean. I can’t think of like, “If it goes down … “ It just starts to be like very little upside to cashing out.
Jay Kang: Except that you could … The upside is that if you sell at 4,000 as opposed to 1,000, you have four times as much money, right?
Aaron Lammer: Part of the problem is that I believe in bitcoin now.
Jay Kang: Why? The price of bitcoin or their project?
Aaron Lammer: I’m very reluctant, but maximalism does make a lot of sense to me. I actually do think bitcoin is a pretty revolutionary idea that I think is going to have a big effect on the world. I don’t know how we get from point A to point B, but I can believe in that vision more than I can believe in a crash to zero. And it feels to me, the remaining money that I have in crypto now from a point where bitcoin is trading at $4,200 or whatever, I just feel it’s a better gamble to gamble on, it’s at least coming back up one more time than to think it’s going to literally go to zero.
It’s not a rational choice, I would definitely respect someone who was like, “You’re out of your mind for thinking that way.”
Jay Kang: I got to say that when I talk to my friends who are in crypto and who have crypto holdings, they feel the same way as you, and I don’t have any coins and I haven’t for a while really, but I think that I would do the same thing that you did, which is that there’s no point in cashing out right now because if you miss the upside, you’re going to be so depressed, and if it goes down a little bit more than … It’s just getting kicked in the balls one more time.
Aaron Lammer: Let’s say I’m waiting for 10,000, let’s say my exit point is 10,000. I’m happy selling at $10,000. Is the chance of it at some point going to 10,000 again, any different when we were at 6,500, now at 4,200 or if it now goes to the Kang line at 3,300? It feels almost equally likely to come back, to me. I don’t feel like it’s less likely to ever see 10,000 again than it was a couple of weeks ago.
Jay Kang: I agree with that. I think it’s probably, just based on math, it’s probably a little bit harder because you’re doubling the distance. But that would assume that crypto going for 4,000 to 6,000 takes a long time anyway. We’ve seen days where it happens in like four hours, so under those circumstances, now I think you’re right.
Aaron Lammer: I think of it a little bit like I knew a few people who bought into Ethereum for the first time at like $500 and pretty rapidly went to 250, I was like, “Whoa.”
Jay Kang: And is now at one point-
Aaron Lammer: But then it went to over a thousand dollars and then it’s now trading back at $130. So I’m not necessarily gambling on maximalism like taking over the world, I’m gambling on that there’s a one more hooray in this party.
Jay Kang: For you and our friends sake, I hope that you’re right, and I think that it would be exciting for many reasons, but I don’t want people to get the wrong impression that I’m rooting for bitcoin to go to 3,300.
Aaron Lammer: I do feel you need to … You know how you have to disclose whether you have holdings in certain situations? I think as long as you are a no coiner, you have to announce it at the top of every show, because I don’t want people listening to this thinking that, “Oh, there’s no coiners around here.” There’s a no coiner here, his name’s Jay Kang.
Jay Kang: How about I announce it at the end of this show. I am a no coiner.
Aaron Lammer: I’ll just get the sound clip and I’ll have the editor play it at the beginning of each show. It will be like, “The price of bitcoin is … and Jay is a no coiner.”
Jay Kang: Is there anything else you want to talk about?
Aaron Lammer: Do you have time for one mailbag that came in?
Jay Kang: Yeah. Let’s see.
Aaron Lammer: Okay. This is an update on last week’s episode, a couple episodes ago, our Bat Brave extravaganza. Someone wrote in and made fun of us for not being able to understand Brave, which is apparently pretty easy. Shouts to Tahi Gichigi, but helpfully screenshotted a part of the Brave FAQ that answered a few of our questions. It says, “How our publishers in websites notified of my contributions.” And it says, “Anytime they have over $100 in their account, a email is sent to the webmaster asking them to begin the process of becoming a verified Brave publisher.” Okay. All seems pretty good there. We were talking about my project Fong Form being added to it. And I guess we haven’t hit $100 because I haven’t gotten that email.
I actually do notice that on this person’s web browser, which they have a screenshotted it in here for this FAQ, they have long form open, so shout out to them. But there’s one more question here. Where does my contribution go if a publisher/website is not part of the program yet? When there is a $100 in your account for your publisher, we make attempts to notify you and if you have an unclaimed funds for a minimum of 90 days, it gets added to the user growth pool. So if you’re wondering where those 25 Bat that you got for free came from, they were misappropriated by the user growth pool, which feels to me a little like the tax man there.
Jay Kang: I hope you one day do get that email, Aaron, that you have $100 in Bat.
Aaron Lammer: I do too, but I think it says a little bit about the ecosystem, that the ecosystems like, “There’s money here if you come within 90 days, but all the money just goes back to us otherwise.” I’d like to see a graph of how much of the publisher payments goes to actual publishers versus the user growth pool.
Jay Kang: I’m not sure if you’re going to hit that $100 in 90 days considering I sent you like 36 cents.
Aaron Lammer: Cool. I’ll see you next week.
Jay Kang: Yeah. I’ll talk to you then.
Aaron Lammer: Perhaps we will have crossed the Kang line then and you’ll have news.