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CoinTalk™️ is produced in partnership with Medium and hosted by Aaron Lammer and Jay Caspian Kang. Press “Listen to the story” above to play the episode. (You can also subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Google Play, download the MP3, or email us at email@example.com)
- We revisit the 5 reasons for Bitcoin’s rise two weeks later after a flash crash and two rallies
- Jay explains why he bought Ripple
- We discuss dumb trader psychology for the next bull run, having experienced the last run as newbs ourselves
Aaron Lammer: Welcome back to the show. But more importantly, welcome back to coining.
Jay Kang: Oh, yeah. I’m deep in it now, much deeper than earlier. Yeah.
Aaron Lammer: More on that soon. I don’t want to blow this for the listeners, but Jay is deep back into coining, and it’s not with Bitcoin. More on that later in the program.
Aaron Lammer: First, let’s talk a little bit about what’s happened to the market since we last spoke. It’s been a wild ride, a roller coaster. Crypto is back for another season. Pretty much, we talked two weeks ago. Immediately after, it spiked from 8000 down to briefly 6500, rubber banded up to 7200, retook 8000. I’m looking right now. We’re back and looking at the price of Bitcoin at the top of the show mode. I think we’re in the 8800-ish range.
Jay Kang: Yeah. It’s been there for a couple days now.
Aaron Lammer: 8750.
Jay Kang: Yeah.
Aaron Lammer: What happened? We talked about this two weeks ago, and I feel like we weirdly have to revisit it again now.
Jay Kang: Yeah. We went through five theories that Reddit users had come up with, which had all been compiled in this site called Markets Insider.
Aaron Lammer: I think that’s a Business Insider spin off.
Jay Kang: That would make sense.
Aaron Lammer: Shouts to the OG, Joe Weisenthal for his early guru-ship to the whole Business Insider team.
Jay Kang: Do you want to go through those theories first just quickly, and see how we feel about them, if two weeks later they’re more convincing or less convincing than before?
Aaron Lammer: Yeah. One thing I want to say is that it’s a wonderful thing, crypto. Unlike sports, someone has to win in sports. All of the things can come true at once in crypto. We had a crash and a rebound, and then another rebound all in this two week span. So if you thought the market was going down, you were right. And if you thought the market was going up, you were also right.
Jay Kang: Yeah, exactly.
Aaron Lammer: The first theory was the safe haven theory, which was basically I think we boiled down to the Trump fear index. How much fear is the world feeling? Are you feeling more or less fear right now than you were two weeks ago?
Jay Kang: I would say it’s pretty constant. And my fears are actually inversely correlated I think with the market. That doesn’t mean I don’t think Trump is eventually going to crater this thing. But like I said earlier, I think on a show earlier, the real thing that people in the stock market are afraid of is Bernie or Warren winning. That’s worse for them in their opinion. I could see, I think, given that Biden is losing a little bit of steam.
Jay Kang: But also that there is a pathway now for either Bernie or Warren to win that maybe some stock people are just like, “Well, I’m going to hedge into Bitcoin now that it’s easy to buy. I can buy it on all these other platforms,” so I’m going to give that like a 2 out of 10 plausibility from like a 1 out of 10 plausibility, but I don’t think it’s because of Trump. I really just think it’s because people are a little bit worried about the state of the US economy under a far … not a far leftist, but on a very progressive or someone running on equality. That’s concerning to them. Maybe some of them are starting to hedge right now. What do you think?
Aaron Lammer: Okay, so let’s talk about that Warren, Sanders ticket. Let’s just merge them into a single ticket. I don’t know who’s the president. I don’t know who’s the vice president, but let’s just say their policies are a possible winner. I think to the market, they’re probably about equally abhorrent, to the stock investor, bad news either way, doesn’t matter who’s the president.
Jay Kang: Yeah, I actually think maybe they’re more afraid of Warren because they think she’ll actually be able to hammer through polices whereas they might see Bernie as more of a demagogue who won’t actually get anything done. But the one thing I have seen consistently when reading stories about this and for some reason, I read a lot of stories, mostly because I am very personally interested in the Warren campaign, is that the Wall Street people really seem afraid of Warren. Even though she’s still in third place right now and pretty far behind Biden, there’s no question that just like happened last election cycle, that as things ramp up and these people stay in and they have constituencies, that it’s going to force people like Biden or … I guess there’s just Biden, because we shouldn’t say like Beto or people that have no shot.
Aaron Lammer: Let’s just say that there’s the Yang and then there’s the Warren, Sanders ticket.
Jay Kang: Yeah and then there’s Biden.
Aaron Lammer: I’m not particularly saying that anyone’s going to win. The market should be pricing in all these eventualities in real time.
Jay Kang: Yes, exactly. I’m just saying that right now it seems almost impossible to believe that someone could run for president on the Democratic ticket without pushing certain income equality things and certain regulations of Wall Street and Silicon Valley ideas through. They’re just too popularist right now and I think that maybe there is some sense of resignation amongst Wall Street to try and hedge out of those markets given that we’re really only a year and a half away at this point.
Aaron Lammer: Can I ask are we accidentally rating everything with our Bitcoin maximalist hats on right now, because there’s this weird way we can look at a Trump and say, “Holy God, this guy who got his finger on the trigger, he’s pushing trade wars, all kinds of things everywhere volatility everywhere, great for Bitcoin.” Then we can also look at a Warren, Sanders ticket and say, “Well, stock traders are going to be fleeing traditional markets, good for Bitcoin.” What eventuality is bad for Bitcoin?
Jay Kang: I agree. That’s why I’m giving it a two out of ten.
Aaron Lammer: Okay, okay, okay.
Jay Kang: I don’t think that’s really as much to do with it. I’m simply putting out the point that if you believe the politics and the future of the markets are spooking investors, that there’s two sources of spooking. One is, “Holy shit, this guy might blow up the world,” and the other one is, “Holy shit, we might have socialism.” Those things I think are both scary to investments. I would say that a small percentage of them might be thinking about rerouting into Bitcoin, although I can’t imagine it’s a lot.
Aaron Lammer: Jay, do you remember the music of the 1990s?
Jay Kang: Oh yeah, of course. All of it, every song.
Aaron Lammer: Something happened in the 1990s, which is that CD mastering came in and everyone just pumped up the volume. It became like a competitive game to just remove the dynamic range of music and fill out the whole spectrum with the throbbing sounds of ska, swing and so much more. One of the things that it resulted in, in my opinion, is a certain amount of ear fatigue, on the part of listeners, where we just got used to extremely pumped up music with very little dynamic range. Eventually, it doesn’t sound loud to you anymore. The trick stops working and now we just are stuck with music that sounds kind of tinny and overly full, in my opinion. I feel like that’s a bit what’s happened with the fear index in the age of Trump. I don’t really know what would make me fear more and I can’t imagine any outcome in which I fear less.
Jay Kang: I think if he started agitated a little bit more clearly towards a war … Although, I don’t know what else he could do more than tweet out, “Iran, you better watch yourself,” or whatever the fuck he tweeted out, but I think if I took him more serious that he wanted to start a war, because I will say this about Trump which is that I don’t think that he wants to start a war. I don’t think he wants to be a wartime president. I think that there is something in his head where he’s just like, “This is all funny and this is all about my ego, but I’m not going to get millions of people killed because of this,” Do you know what I mean?
Jay Kang: There’s certain arms conflicts that the United States could have gotten in already during his presidency and I think people would argue that outside what’s happened in Yemen, that somebody like Hillary Clinton who’s a lot more hawkish would have gotten involved in these situations. I don’t think that outside though of him being like, “Well, I and do go to war to win the next election that I could be more …” I think you’re right. There’s no escalation of my panic.
Aaron Lammer: I feel like Trump’s a little like Tether FUD, terrifying the first time, very scary the second time. Once you get into the 9th tether panic, it’s not that it’s fake. Yeah, Trump is reckless and he could start a war. He’s just done it so many times. I can’t go down into my bomb shelter every time Trump starts saber rattling and I kind of think markets probably feel a bit the same way. I’m going to be with you. I’ll give it a 3 out of 10.
Jay Kang: Okay, that’s bullish.
Aaron Lammer: All right, mainstream appeal and this basically means Fidelity and Ameritrade, Etrade, et cetera, all the people who are going to let you buy crypto with your easy to use mainstream account. Any change in this one for you? [crosstalk 00:10:45]-
Jay Kang: I’ve had a life change since we did our last podcast, which is-
Aaron Lammer: You’re [crosstalk 00:10:49] coiner.
Jay Kang: Part of the reason why I got back into coinage is because I finally got an email from Robinhood after a year of waiting. It said that I was eligible to trade crypto currencies now that my spot in line had come up. I got to say. I really don’t like Coinbase. I find their fees to be absurd. I also don’t like the idea that you have to buy and then they lock it up and you can’t move it for like seven days or something like that. That definitely makes me suspicious.
Aaron Lammer: Does it also bother you that they don’t seem to be catering directly to the gambling market?
Jay Kang: Well, that’s part of it, which is just that if I’m speculating, I kind of want to speculate in the same place where I’m buying monthly puts on fucking Tesla into the other dumb degenerate shit that I do. To have crypto on Robinhood is actually kind of amazing. You can’t buy that many coins. The only really obscure altcoin you can buy is Dogecoin, but it’s so easy to sell off an option or to sell off a stock and then buy crypto, that it actually has made me more willing to dabble in crypto, because I’m just like, “Well, I’ll just exit out of here like I exit out of everything else.”
Jay Kang: It doesn’t quite feel that way in Coinbase, because it’s a separate thing. I have wire money to them. I have to wait for a while to do anything with it, and then I have to withdraw from there right into my bank account. This is a little bit different. It’s like I would say like 15% easier and that actually has … It has influenced my behavior.
Aaron Lammer: If I’m reading you correctly, you’re kind of saying if I can’t just cash my chips out right after I win a bunch of money playing baccarat at a casino, it’s not as much fun.
Jay Kang: Yeah, but also I don’t want to go to another casino to play baccarat. I want to go to the casino that has craps and baccarat.
Aaron Lammer: Yeah, yeah. No, I buy it. The side narrative that’s connected with me is just I don’t know about you, but I’m starting to hear more people ask about crypto than were asking about it six months ago. I think other people who are involved in crypto feel a similar way and when you think about if it’s even 50% easier than it was during the last bull run. I think you could argue just with the existing accounts in products like Robinhood, Fidelity, Ameritrade or whatever, it is easier.
Jay Kang: Yeah, it’s a lot easier.
Aaron Lammer: This is a powder keg. When this next one goes off, it’s going to have a bunch more fuel because a bunch of people already have Fidelity.
Jay Kang: Can I ask a question though? When you say when this thing goes off, it’s up like 300% from the kang line. Why is this not the parabolic moonshot? It’s basically done that.
Aaron Lammer: Can we talk about something there, because I think you’re absolutely right. You’ve hit the nail on the head. We talk about mania when it’s above 10,000. The mania is going from 3,300 to 10,000.
Jay Kang: Yeah, and we’re not at 10,000 yet, but we hit 9,000 at some point or like 8,950, I think. Yeah, I anecdotally have had the same thing happen where people in my life some of whom are responsible adults who didn’t get in on the last crypto craze and kind of are FOMOing now, being like, “Oh wait, maybe I can be one of the ones who got in early and make money.” Then some start degenerates I know, they’ve all asked me about it in the last week. I don’t know if those people are going to be the fuel, if there’s enough of them. It certainly is not as much as it was last time, even when Bitcoin was around 5,000 or 6,000, 7,500. It was like four people a day at work. Now, it’s been like four people total.
Aaron Lammer: Imagine we had 12,000, imagine we really start rolling into this thing.
Jay Kang: Yeah, I mean I also think at that point, some people would be afraid that it’s already capped out. But I will say that-
Aaron Lammer: You mean smart people.
Jay Kang: Yeah, exactly, exactly. We predicted a while ago that it would take a while for Bitcoin to get rid of the stink of all these scams and all the crashes and the only thing I’ll say in a bullish sense right is that it does feel like some of that stink, not all of it, but let’s say like 33% of stink is gone and that people are willing to trust it a little bit more, because the price is going up. That said, I think it’s extremely fragile and that only big downward movement is going to wipe all those people out. Right now, it seems okay. It’s like the type of thing where I kind of wish we had more market manipulation so we wouldn’t get a normal, natural retracement.
Aaron Lammer: Well, I think you can be pretty confident that we have a good amount of market manipulation and if you ask me, “Aaron, why are you so bullish?” I’d be like, “I don’t know. I just feel like these market manipulators want to see the prices go up.”
Jay Kang: Yeah.
Aaron Lammer: I’m not saying this is real growth. I’m just saying you can kind of feel the vibe in the stadium even in a fixed match and I’m like, “Oh, I think this is fixed in the upward direction.”
Jay Kang: Yeah, the vibe has changed. Very, very precise technical analysis term of the vibe, I would say that as vibe experts, I think we both believe that the vibe around crypto is over. All right, do you want to go to the third reason?
Aaron Lammer: All right, the third reason is people leaving alts for Bitcoin. I feel like at this point, I can’t really say that people … Alts are very racked against Bitcoin, but the minute Bitcoin showed life also had a little run there. I’m not comfortable really saying anything about alts at this point.
Jay Kang: The only thing I’m comfortable saying is that I am now once again an altcoiner.
Aaron Lammer: Well, I say this about alts, rather than … the story is that people are flowing out of alts into Bitcoin, I think alts are just a riskier bet and people are like, “Oh, well, I really think Bitcoin is going up. I don’t know what’s going on with alts.” As soon as alts starts showing mania and alts can show mania in a week, easily. Give me a few double digit days in a row and then tell me people aren’t making an exodus from alt coins.
Jay Kang: Yeah, and I think that those same, degenerate and uninformed impulses still exist amongst a lot of people for alt coins. One of the friends who’s been asking me a lot about crypto is rather wealthy and has a very … I’ll just put it this way. He has a very high risk tolerance and he bought like-
Aaron Lammer: Is this Doug Kim we’re talking about?
Jay Kang: No, it’s not Doug Kim. This person is actually more degenerate than Doug Kim.
Aaron Lammer: We got to have Doug back on the show.
Jay Kang: He bought like an alarming amount of XRP Ripple and something called BTT, which is like a derivative coin of Tron. It was based entirely off some Twitter guy who was saying, “Oh, I called the last price movements.”
Aaron Lammer: It’s a derivative of Tron?
Jay Kang: Yeah, it’s a derivative of Tron.
Aaron Lammer: You’ve gone to a level below even where I operate.
Jay Kang: I didn’t buy any of this stuff. He did, but it was the same thing. It was the same exact story. He was just like, “Well, this stuff is like $0.25. Why wouldn’t I buy that instead of buying Bitcoin?” I was trying to explain to him. I was just like, “Well, you should look at the supply. A lot of these small coins are scams. You have to look at the circulating supply and the fixed supply.” He was just like, “I don’t care. This guy on Twitter is on fire.” It reminded me of us like a year and a half ago or maybe us now.
Aaron Lammer: Yeah, well, what has changed? What have we possibly learned?
Jay Kang: I don’t know. I think we’ve learned to scold people who do that, but I will tell you that I bought a considerable amount of XRP after this guy bought it.
Aaron Lammer: Let me make a very simple, easy to understand argument. Do think there’s a good chance that crypto will regain its mania and the Bitcoins will reach new highs?
Jay Kang: This year?
Aaron Lammer: No, let’s just say ever, in the next five years.
Jay Kang: Oh, yeah, sure this a chance.
Aaron Lammer: Okay, so if you think Bitcoin is going to print a new high and you also think XRP is going to print a new high, XRP is going to go 10X before printing an all time high or maybe like 8X or 6X or something like that. You have a lot more ceiling than you do with Bitcoin. This is exactly how we thought about it when we first started buying. We looked at Litecoin. The first thing I ever bought was Litecoin.
Jay Kang: Litecoin’s gone crazy, by the way.
Aaron Lammer: I know. That’s what I’m saying. Here’s what I’m saying.
Jay Kang: Do you want to buy Litecoin?
Aaron Lammer: Maybe people are that dumb. Maybe everything will happen again. Maybe we are in a loop of dumb market thinking. If you believe that, which is not super crazy, XRP is very attractive right now. If we’re on the brink of going totally dumb, I would be buying XRP right now.
Jay Kang: I did buy XRP and it’s done great over the three days that I’ve had it or four days that I’ve had.
Aaron Lammer: Can you explain why you bought it?
Jay Kang: Well, yeah. This is embarrassing, but the guy who bought all the XRP is also the luckiest person I’ve ever met. I have been around gambling long enough to know or to at least have hammered in my head that some people are just lucky and you can mathematically say anything that you want, but some people are going to run on the hot side of the odds for their entire life. It’s just math distribution. It doesn’t mean they’re going to do it again, but this guy just keeps doing it, and so me and my friends all bought XRP once he did it, just because we’re just like, “Oh, he’s so lucky. Of course it’s going to go up.” That’s it. That was my brilliant investment strategy.
Aaron Lammer: I don’t know anything about his other betting history, so I can’t interrogate the fact that he’s been lucky in the past, but is it possible also that his bets, even if mockable, are good? I would say right now, there’s a little bit of the market turns its nose up at things that are stinky, right? So yes, XRP is stinky, Tron, very stinky. There’s a lot of stink on the market, but is being totally objective in this market, maybe being immune to stink? Because if I had no stink nose, I’d look at Ripple right now. Look, I’m holding a big Ethereum bag. Yes, do I believe in Ethereum more than Ripple? I do, but I actually believe in an overall recovery for crypto and if crypto does overall recover, them stinky bags are going to be worth a lot.
Jay Kang: Look, I think you’re right. In this particular instance, it’s not that … I told him what I still believe, which is I don’t think that buying XRP is a bad bet. I just think you should have better thinking on it, because he was like-
Aaron Lammer: I would just weight that bet with Bitcoin. That’s always my feeling is that you got to anchor at least partially to Bitcoin.
Jay Kang: He has a lot of Bitcoin too.
Aaron Lammer: But this guy clearly knows way more about betting than I do. That’s how he got all these Bitcoin that he’s betting.
Jay Kang: His XRP bet is essentially based on some random guy with 4,000 Twitter follows in Australia who records these weird videos of himself being like, “I have called the last five price spikes.” He’s like on the minute chart on TA, like the most granular chart, being like, “Okay, there’s accumulation here in the next 15 minutes. We’re going to see the moon,” and then it doesn’t happen. Then he’s like, “I need 10 more minutes.” All I’ve said to my friend is like, “Listen, I don’t know what you do with your money, but this is literally the most pathetic thing that you could be buying into.”
Aaron Lammer: Aren’t we just the respectable version of that, like with ledger status?
Jay Kang: Aaron, look, I’ve bought … Fucking, I’ve bought XRP because I thought this guy was lucky. It’s not like I’m giving myself a pass here. There isn’t a single thing that I’ve done that’s less degenerate than what he’s done, except the amount that we’ve invested in. I don’t think that buying something like the derivative of Tron. Maybe it’s a good idea. Tron went crazy for a long fucking time, while we were all poo-pooing it, it went nuts. That’s nothing to really sneeze at. If all you really want is to take like let’s say $50,000 and turn it into like $500,000, you might as well buy fucking XRP and some shitcoins that other people might FOMO into, as long as you have an exit plan. No, I generally agree with you that our pretensions and our prejudices and our snobiness is probably to our detriment.
Aaron Lammer: Can I put forward a crypto investment thesis for going forward? If you believe that crypto is basically all a giant scam, which I would say both of us at last somewhat believe, you perhaps more than me.
Jay Kang: Yeah, that’s fair.
Aaron Lammer: And you also believe crypto is going to succeed and that the people who play the game best will be successful. Wouldn’t you basically use the founder’s hypothesis, which is invest in the person, not the idea and just seek out the biggest scammers and the most successful crypto scammers and invest in them? That’s the bold case for Ripple. That’s the bold case for Tron is that they’re basically pure marketing and that they’re run by scamming marketing masters who are good at planting stories and making phony partnerships and acquiring other companies to grow them, like BitTorrent.
Jay Kang: Yeah, and also maybe market manipulation. The one that he bought was the BitTorrent coin, BTT.
Aaron Lammer: Market manipulation’s a big part of that. Here’s another one: Binance Coin. It’s basically just a bet on [CZ’s 00:25:46] crazy cult of personality and marketing scale.
Jay Kang: Yeah and maybe his ability to be the singular exchange out there, which I don’t think is a crazy thing.
Aaron Lammer: Remember I had my money laundering index where you’re getting exposure to Monero and Zcash, but less Zcash, really the ones that people are actually using? It would be like if we made a pure internet marketing index and it was coins that are basically have no function other than for a hype man to hype them.
Jay Kang: Yeah, exactly.
Aaron Lammer: And to use the money they got from one hype to buy other companies. I know that sounds crazy, but I was just reading a profile of Marc Benioff’s Salesforce. That’s basically Salesforce’s game plan. They just keep getting more and more money and buying other business software and incorporating it. The company itself on some level is getting bigger and bigger.
Jay Kang: Yeah, all I know about Salesforce is that it’s big. I don’t know a single thing that they do.
Aaron Lammer: Okay, should we get to our final hypotheses here?
Jay Kang: Yeah.
Aaron Lammer: We’ve been getting nicely down the rabbit hole there I feel like. Good job, us. The Bitfinex scandal drove Bitcoin purchases. Let me say this. That Bitfinex scandal didn’t have legs.
Jay Kang: Yeah. It seems like it’s already over until the trial stuff begins, right? I’m going to give that a big zero.
Aaron Lammer: I do feel like there’s a growing sentiment that New York City is going to prosecute crypto, which is a New York City resident. I don’t really appreciate that much.
Jay Kang: Yeah.
Aaron Lammer: Although, on the plus side, it could help our ability to get interviews with the defendants and prosecutors, so I’ll give that one 3 out of 10.
Jay Kang: Angry crypto guys who are yelling about the state. I think we’ve had enough of those one. Let’s just continue our conversation that we were having, because I thought it was interesting about the altcoin market and if we have started another cycle of dumb money coming into crypto. I don’t believe this hypothesis necessarily, but I don’t disbelieve, but I just want to lay it out and I want you to respond to it, okay?
Aaron Lammer: Okay.
Jay Kang: Which is that by the time that a lot of people started hearing about crypto every single day in 2016, that the price of Bitcoin was already over $10,000, that it already had these parabolic moves and that some people, because the price was so high and because they were getting so many warnings, did not buy in and those people did know about Bitcoin, they did know what had happened. They might not have condemned it in the same way and that now that the price of Bitcoin is under $10,000, which I think is a huge mental block. Those round numbers do matter in terms of people’s psychology, that-
Aaron Lammer: Hugely, hugely.
Jay Kang: That they feel like, “Look, if I want to double my money, maybe this whole scam thing is going to happen again and I want to get in early,” and not just that, they don’t the same thing that everybody else does, which is they start with Bitcoin and then they get bored and then they start moving over to other things that they see are going crazy when they’re reading through Twitter and stuff. They get hooked in and they’re like, “Holy shit. This BTT thing, which is the BitTorrent coin. I know what BitTorrent is. This thing is fractions of a cent. Why don’t I buy like two million of these coins and just hope it goes to $5 and then I’ll be a rich person and I’ll have cashed in on the second crypto boom.”
Jay Kang: In addition to that, maybe there is some narrative out there thinking like, “Well, now that these big companies are involved, this is web 2.0. This is not the first .com boom and bust, but this is a building of shit like Google and I should get in on the ground floor there.” That may be all that psychology put together has a lot to do with the retail investor that is interested in crypto right now. What do you think?
Aaron Lammer: Well, we’ve always tried to go dumb on this show and give people none of the benefit of the doubt and assume that they’re being stupid. For the most part, I think we have concluded that most crypto buyers are either giant, whale level, macro market manipulators and those are the people, let’s be honest, who made most of the money, and I include the exchanges with those because the exchange themselves are macro market manipulators, and then these dumb kind of kid trader gamblers, which I think are a much smaller portion of the puzzle but are probably the people who drive alt coin trading for the most part, I think. I don’t think that many people are actually that interested in alt coin trading. I think there is a certain kind of big money that doesn’t ever really get passed say an Ethereum or a Litecoin.
Jay Kang: Well, are you sure about that? Because the reason why thing weren’t limited to that in the beginning was because Coinbase had such a monopoly on new users and that was all they offered but it’s not even that they offer all these coins, but they at least let you see the listings of all these other shit coins.
Aaron Lammer: Well, so now I want to talk about what’s different this time. I don’t assume that a new crypto buyer has actually analyzed the whole last crypto mania and crash. They probably just know a little bit about it, right? They know that crypto was really high and then it crashed and maybe they know that there was some funny business and there was some feeling that the market was manipulated and they heard about some scandals. Who knows what they know?
Jay Kang: Sure.
Aaron Lammer: Now, assuming that they’re basically like us, they come to Coinbase, they come to Gemini, they maybe use the Cash App, and they probably first buy Bitcoin. Bitcoin probably, if this is really the market wave we’re talking about, it’s going to stall out a bit here, maybe kind of hover around close to 10,000 and assuming that this happens again, we’re going to start seeing some of these alts go off. I would assume that the new set of alts is going to be what’s available at Robinhood, Coinbase, et cetera. The biggest gains from here are probably the coins that were not included in the original set when we were on Coinbase, but are now.
Jay Kang: Sure, so what would that be? Like BAT, [inaudible 00:32:29]?
Aaron Lammer: Yes, Stellar.
Jay Kang: XRP.
Aaron Lammer: Yeah.
Jay Kang: Stellar.
Aaron Lammer: It’s kind of the usual suspects, but I think if we assume that history’s just going to repeat, what I would expect is that within that elite prestige alts coin pool, some different things are going to shoot out than last time. So like right now …
Jay Kang: Yeah, sure-
Aaron Lammer: … Monero is actually trading above Zcash, but Monero not any of these exchanges.
Jay Kang: Yeah, that’s true.
Aaron Lammer: I have no idea why.
Jay Kang: Well, they all banned Monero, if you remember.
Aaron Lammer: For the most part, yeah. I don’t know where people are getting all this Monero. Come buy mine.
Jay Kang: Maybe it’s actually being used. I would say that I find that compelling in a narrative sense, but let’s remember that there was a day where the founder of Ripple was the richest man in the world on paper. It’s not like Ripple didn’t go crazy. It definitely went crazy.
Aaron Lammer: That’s true.
Jay Kang: Now I’m actually curious about this, because I do think that one of the things that was a product of the last bull run, which will have some sort of effect is A, I think there’s probably less market manipulation now than there was back then, mostly because all these exchanges had to really … They all basically got fucking subpoena’d or they got put under investigation and it’s going to be harder for them to do the same things that they did last time. That’s a huge chunk of it, but I think there’s also a smaller chunk of it where I do think that the amount of money that people are going to put it, as opposed to what they did before where even you and I probably put in an irresponsible amount of money into crypto. I think that people are going to be a little bit more risk sensitive than they were before, because the gospel is no longer like John McAfee saying, “This is going to go to a million dollars.” It’s no longer like we’re going to have a whole new system of money. It’s going to be the new internet.
Jay Kang: It’s really now like, “Hey, this is an investment tool and also maybe it’s a small portion of a brand new type of economy and a brand new type of technology.” I think that’s less of a draw than what we saw before, which was just people basically turning their entire lives over to crypto. I don’t know. Does that sound compelling to you? Because I’m actually not even sure if I believe that.
Aaron Lammer: Jay, you remind me of like a veteran of a war, comes back. You did a little time in Europe in the 40s fighting on the allied side and you come home and you’re like, “Man, war was just horrific, but I feel better in that future generations. We’ve kind of learned our lesson about this and they have movie cameras now, so people are going to see that that is truly just horrific and they’ll never want to go to war again.”
Jay Kang: Well, there hasn’t been-
Aaron Lammer: [crosstalk 00:35:28] atomic bomb.
Jay Kang: There hasn’t been a World War III yet.
Aaron Lammer: No, but we haven’t really learned our lesson about war as a whole. I think that each generation thinks that they are smarter or more modern and then gets dragged into the same cycles. I just thing crypto hasn’t gotten any smarter. You’re smarter because you were around for the last run, but if this is a mania, it’s going to be fueled I think mostly by people who weren’t around. We’re old.
Jay Kang: That is true. That is true. My friend who wasn’t around for the last crypto one is acting so stupid that I want to throttle him.
Aaron Lammer: We’re scarred.
Jay Kang: Yeah, exactly.
Aaron Lammer: We’re at the VFW hall with like pints in our hands being like, “These young bucks, they don’t know nothing.”
Jay Kang: It definitely is limiting our earning potential I think or else I think I would just be FOMOing into shitcoins right now as opposed to just buying XRP.
Aaron Lammer: Does that mean your entire crypto portfolio is 100% XRP?
Jay Kang: Right now, yeah, mostly just because I did it for fun to-
Aaron Lammer: How would you feel if Bitcoin goes buck wild right now and Ripple crashes?
Jay Kang: I’d feel bad. [inaudible 00:36:48] feel great. What do you want the answer to be?
Aaron Lammer: No, no, I’m just surprised. For most of the time we’ve been in crypto, we’ve been kind of collectively hedged against the crypto market as the whole, basically … Not against the crypto market, with the crypto market as a whole.
Jay Kang: I’m much less afraid of Bitcoin taking off and my BTC value getting wrecked than everything crashing again, so let’s say that first. That’s like the least of my concerns.
Aaron Lammer: I’ll say I’m just obsessed with my Bitcoin value right now where I’m like even when Bitcoin was going on, my Bitcoin value was going down and I was kind of bummed.
Jay Kang: Okay, so you bought a bunch of Ethereum?
Aaron Lammer: I bought Ethereum the whole way down and I’ve experienced a little bit of Ethereum relief since then, but for my entire buy to bare out the trade, I need a lot more Ethereum recovery. It would need to be at like 500 now.
Jay Kang: For you to be even-
Aaron Lammer: For me [crosstalk 00:37:53] selling it. To be like a successful trading [inaudible 00:37:58]. Somewhere around [crosstalk 00:38:00].
Jay Kang: So it [inaudible 00:38:00] 2X.
Aaron Lammer: 400, yeah. If any of this stuff comes back, I’m just overall extremely Bitcoin wrecked. My portfolio has come back a lot from the bottom and I’m happy about that, but that’s the danger of being … I’m about 60/40 Bitcoin verse everything else as everything else has gotten wrecked to Bitcoin. Just about everything has gotten wrecked to Bitcoin.
Jay Kang: Yeah, I’m looking at the prices right now and it does dawn on me that if we had … This is the exercise we always do that if we had bought Bitcoin when we first got into it, when the price was around $2,500 to $3,500 and we had just kept it the whole time, that we would be doing really well.
Aaron Lammer: We would be hovering around 3X. We would have never been as wrecked as we were.
Jay Kang: And then the lessons that you and I have talked about now on multiple, multiple, multiple episodes, dozens of episodes for the past year and a half didn’t apply at all. It just went straight into the XRP.
Aaron Lammer: We act like crypto is torture, but it’s actually trading that’s torture.
Jay Kang: This is so stupid. What am I doing?
Aaron Lammer: Bitcoin is pretty easy. If you bought it at any time except at the very top and just held it, even if you bought at Bitcoin 8,000 on the way up and just held on, you’re doing fine right now. It’s only us who are idiots.
Jay Kang: All right, you know what? Fuck it. I’m selling my XRP right now on the air.
Aaron Lammer: To buy Bitcoin you mean?
Jay Kang: No, I’m going to roll it into some Tesla short or something like that.
Aaron Lammer: Speaking of crypto [inaudible 00:39:45].
Jay Kang: Yeah, Tesla shorts are like by far the most fun thing to … Actually, I can’t do it because I can’t sign into Coinbase. All right, well, is there anything you want to talk about? We’re at the 40 minute mark.
Aaron Lammer: Yeah, I think that like covered most of the stuff I was interested in. Going forward, how will you manage that XRP [inaudible 00:40:06]? You’re just going to sell it right now or do you have like a specific price target?
Jay Kang: Okay, can you tell you the real problem is that all the people who are in my degenerate gambling group chat, they’re all in XRP too just because the NBA finals is in a lull and because there’s nothing to really bet on, experience come the summers, there’s going to be even less to bet on. We’ve just been talking about crypto and the most degenerate ways possible. I kind of don’t want to miss out on that if it goes crazy. If it goes to like $0.90, I’m going to be so mad.
Aaron Lammer: I’m going to say that the bullishness from within your group makes me bullish, because those are the kind of people I know if Ripple doubles right now are not going to immediately dump. They’re going to hold on and try to get a crazier return and I do think a Ripple mania could result in the extremely cheap Ripple that’s available right now even in major apps. We’ll just have to see.
Jay Kang: Are you going to buy Ripple?
Aaron Lammer: I might buy a little Ripple. I got a little out of my Cardano position. I think I might go from Cardano to Ripple.
Jay Kang: If you’re in Cardano … If we-
Aaron Lammer: If that’s an Atomic [inaudible 00:41:18] on Atomic Wallet, then I might be picking up a little bit of Ripple with my Cardano.
Jay Kang: Do it so that we can have this thread going through the podcast where we’re now Ripple maximalist. I think that would be a good heel turn for us.
Aaron Lammer: Well, just like you FOMOed out into Ripple this week … I’m sorry, XRP. I don’t want to mix those up. I FOMOed a little bit into being like, “Should I put a little of this crypto on the NBA playoffs because I actually think that there’s some kind of juicy bets in this Warriors, Raptors matchup.”
Jay Kang: What did you bet?
Aaron Lammer: Well, I have not actually bet. I wanted to run them by you.
Jay Kang: Okay.
Aaron Lammer: So I think the Warriors are going to win, but I don’t really like Warriors to win at like minus [crosstalk 00:42:06].
Jay Kang: Like minus 280, yeah.
Aaron Lammer: Yeah, and it’s just like I’m not too super interested in that. I also think Durant will never play as a Warrior.
Jay Kang: Is that a bet?
Aaron Lammer: That’s unfortunately not a bet, so I’m like, “How can I form a bet out of that hypothesis?” One of the ways would be to bet Curry and Clay for finals MVP.
Jay Kang: What are the odds for each one?
Aaron Lammer: Well, I like Clay a lot at 14 to 1, especially if it somehow is a short series, you get a couple Clay games in.
Jay Kang: Yeah, it’s just hard to … It’s a little bit hard for me to see what would happen … You would have to average like 30 points a game for the series and somehow like guard Kawhi or something like that.
Aaron Lammer: Or Curry would have to have a somewhat mundane series by his own standards, but they still beat the Raptors, which I actually could believe happening. Now, Curry is minus 140 for finals MVP. He’s never won before. You’d think that they’re probably give it to him in any kind of a victory since he’s never won before.
Jay Kang: Yeah, I don’t know about that, because I think that at that point, you might as well just grab the minus, the series win bet, because you’re taking on a lot of … or just bet the Warriors to win every game on the money line or something like that, because … I don’t think you should do that. I actually don’t agree with your assessment of the series. I think I’m going to bet on the Raptors to win, because …
Aaron Lammer: How dare you?
Jay Kang: I’m betting good odds on it and I also just think that not having Durant is kind of a problem against the team that can actually completely destroy your half court offense in the same way that Toronto did with Milwaukee for four games in a row. I also just think that Kawhi really could present a lot of problems for everyone on the Warriors depending on who he’s guarding. The thing that I really feel the most strong about is I don’t really buy this [inaudible 00:44:22] Draymond thing that’s happening right. I feel like at some point, he’s going to implode. If it was like a 50/50 bet, I would certainly bet the Warriors, but I don’t know. I don’t like any of those bets for you honestly.
Aaron Lammer: So you don’t like Draymond for finals MVP then?
Jay Kang: What’s the odds on that?
Aaron Lammer: I think [crosstalk 00:44:44].
Jay Kang: It’s like eight to one or something?
Aaron Lammer: No, no, no, no, it’s like 20 or 30 to 1.
Jay Kang: Oh really?
Aaron Lammer: It’s lower than Clay.
Jay Kang: I would pick that. That’s a bet I would [inaudible 00:44:53].
Aaron Lammer: Yeah, I kind of like that too because there’s kind of a good narrative there and they gave it to Iguodala that time, which was also kind of a narrative finals MVP.
Jay Kang: Yeah, so I would bet Clay and Draymond at that point.
Aaron Lammer: And Draymond. Yeah, I would bet Clay, Draymond and maybe the road games, because I believe they’re just going to come out firing in those [crosstalk 00:45:15].
Jay Kang: They’re an underdog in game one, which is weird.
Aaron Lammer: That’s what I’m saying. To me, I’m a little bit surprised at the relative respect levels here.
Jay Kang: Yeah, well, it’s like-
Aaron Lammer: They’re dogs on the road to the Raptors.
Jay Kang: I was trying to think of that, yeah. Well, there’s dogs on the road in game one of the finals, but they’re like a minus 290 favorite. It’s just weird.
Aaron Lammer: They also haven’t lost a game with this lineup yet.
Jay Kang: Yeah. Well, that is true. But Toronto’s-
Aaron Lammer: This is a pretty good lineup.
Jay Kang: Toronto-
Aaron Lammer: This lineup’s had a lot of success.
Jay Kang: Toronto also just won four games in a row against a much better team than the Portland Trail Blazers, so there’s that too.
Aaron Lammer: That’s true. But didn’t Kawhi kind of like fucked up to you towards the end of that series?
Jay Kang: He had like 18 rebounds in game seven, so it’s-
Aaron Lammer: I know, but like his body was going through things that a human body should avoid.
Jay Kang: Yeah, I don’t know if using the human body metric is a good way to think about Kawhi. Yeah, those are the bets I would do. I think I would bet those two MVPs and maybe not even bet the series and just bet those two and hope they hit, because they’re both pretty good payouts.
Aaron Lammer: Well, this series will still be running when we [inaudible 00:46:26] next week, so I’m going to pick up some Ripple and maybe we can make one of our classic Ripple on Ripple.
Jay Kang: Yeah, one Ripple.
Aaron Lammer: All right. Talk to you later.
The official podcast of Bitcoin crashes. Hosted by @aaronlammer and @jaycaspiankang. Mailbag/contact: firstname.lastname@example.org
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