Trump’s 38 percent lead in the polls may be larger study finds

The story of Donald Trump’s political campaign has gripped the nation as people on both sides of the political spectrum watch what can only be described as the deteriorating state of American politics. In July our sister publication, Substance, published an article detailing why Trump’s campaign was not so much a joke as it is was a legitimate threat to U.S. politics. Less than six months later, we are seeing Trump lead the GOP candidates in numbers and support. However, there is one key fact that may set the front-runner in a position to snag the GOP nod and run as a 2016 presidential candidate.

Last week DC-based data and technology company, Morning Consult, released a study which attempted to explain why Trump has better online polling numbers than those from telephone surveys. The difference in numbers has been leaving political analysts scratching their heads for some time now as Trump has climbed ahead of other GOP candidates with a significant lead.

According to the study, “Trump performs about six percentage points better online than via live telephone interviewing and that his advantage online is driven by adults with higher levels of education. Importantly, the differences between online ane live telephone persist even when examining only highly engaged, likely voters.”

The authors of the study theorize that those being polled were less likely to admit to a live person that they would vote for trump versus those who answered online or via interactive voice response. These findings in and of themselves are still preliminary and in order to properly gage the accuracy more studies would need to be conducted, however if these numbers are accurate opponents of Trump may have something to really worry about.

According to a CNN/ORC poll released Wednesday, Dec., 23, Trump leads with 39% followed by Ted Cruz with 18% support from Republican and Republican-leaning voters. However, the finding by Morning Consult suggests that Trump may in fact have more voter support.

Despite Trump’s lead, opponents are hopeful that his continuous remarks against Muslims, women, Obama and others will drag him down enough to keep him from running in the 2016 general election. If 2015 has been any indicator of what voters should expect this coming year it is that Trump’s antics will only become more outrageous and more people will continue to support his rhetoric. No one has yet been able to confirm whether or not he truly believes his statements or if he is simply pandering to get the widest audience possible. Regardless, it looks as if a large number of Republican voters are not yet ready to tell the candidate, “You’re fired.”