I see lots of people speculating about impeachment. Is this enough evidence? Is this crime “bad” enough? These aren’t the right questions.
There’s no statutory standard for impeachment. It’s solely up to the discretion and whims of the House. So it’s fundamentally Paul Ryan’s call.
They don’t need a good reason. I think there has to be a charge of a crime — they can’t just say “We don’t like your face” — but could be anything. It could be jaywalking.
It’s a political decision. Will impeachment benefit the GOP in the next election? Will the public back them up, reward them, for impeaching and/or removing the President? This is the sole consideration.
Right now the answer is an unequivocal no. Trump’s base is the Republican base. The GOP can’t make them mad or they’ll be punished at the ballot box.
So basically the rest of us are at their mercy as well. Until the most racist, sexist, hateful, deplorable elements of society turn against Trump, there will be no impeachment.
The deplorables don’t seem to care about emoluments, perjury, obstruction of justice, not even treason. They love Putin. They hate Hillary. They are totes cool with an assist from Russia if that’s what it took to win the election. (Note: That’s what it took.)
As I said during the campaign, they don’t care about Trump’s misdealings. They like that he plays dirty. They put him in office to use any means necessary to smite their common enemies. (That’s us!) As President, that’s exactly what he’s doing and as far as they’re concerned, he doesn’t have to do anything else. Hating on the little guy, civil rights violations, even violence — that’s what they wanted from him and that’s exactly what they got.
If you view everything through that frame- The base loves Trump, the GOP needs the base -everything makes a lot more sense.
I don’t know what it would take for him to lose his base. Unless he all of a sudden starts being nice to black people, I can’t think of anything that would turn them off. They wouldn’t even blame him for nuclear war. As the mushroom cloud explodes right over my house, they’ll find a way to blame Hillary.
The situation is grim. But don’t look to indictments or big reveals as harbingers of impeachment. Watch that ~31%. That’s who decides.