Has Pakistan won the ‘war of perception’
Following the recent India-Pakistan standoff, and the subsequent capture and release of Wing Commander Abhinandan of IAF by Pakistan, there have been claims that while India has won a strategic victory, Pakistan has ‘outsmarted India’ and won the ‘perception war.’ Let us examine whether this claim holds any water.
The above claim is substantiated based on the following occurrences:
- Pakistan had first movers advantage on 26th Feb after IAF conducted its strike
- After an attempted attack on IAF assets, Pakistan successfully convinced the world that it shot down 2 Mig 21s and captured 2 IAF pilots
- Damage done to Pakistan is not significant enough to be a deterrent against future terror attacks
The claim of ‘first movers adv’ is true, since PAF’s Maj Gen Ghafoor’s tweets were the 1st source of info that something was on. Later in the day, General Ghafoor claimed that IAF jets’ ‘payload’ was dropped in the open and no damage was done. This was before the 3 pm statement by the Indian Foreign Secretary on 26th Feb. Ironically, the claim of ‘no damage’ by General Ghafoor before any statement by India ended up causing speculation that Pakistan already had something to hide. The first mover's advantage (if it existed in the first place) had a scant impact, and if anything, made matters even harder for Pakistan.
The next argument presented is that after attempting incursion on 27th Feb, images of aircraft crashes being circulated which claimed that they were IAF Aircraft shot down by PAF & that Pakistan had captured 2 IAF pilots. However, these images of crashed craft purported to be incoming IAF Migs were quickly proven to be false, within the same day (27th Feb). Did Pakistan succeed in convincing anyone, save few in Indian media houses?
It is also claimed that Pakistan successfully lied about capturing 2 IAF pilots & denied using F-16 aircraft in its incursion into Indian airspace on 27th Feb. The first claim was proven false by Pakistan itself later in the day, when videos of Captain Abhinandan started to circulate on Social Media, and it became clear that there was only one pilot in Pakistan’s custody. The second claim was proven false by the Indian Tri-Service joint statement on 28th Feb which produced evidence of AMRAAM wreckage. F-16s are the only aircraft in PAFs arsenal which carries AMRAAMs. Did Pakistan’s earlier story stand even for a day?
Lastly, some have claimed that Pakistan has not suffered any significant damage, and will not be deterred from future terror attacks on India. Let us look at the material loss to Pakistan. Firstly, Pakistan airspace remains shut as of Mar 12th. Pakistan bleeds dry from this virtual blockade even at this moment. Moreover, Pakistan has suffered material loss of 3 training camps and ‘non-state actors’ ranging in estimate from 300 to over 1000. US has no tenable means to support Pakistan this time, neither does China. There is reason to believe that Pakistan is running low on oil already as written here. It is unclear how long Pakistan’s already fragile economy can sustain this interruption for. Furthermore, no country (with the exception of Turkey) came out in support of Pakistan India meanwhile has been able to mobilize world opinion in its favor. There was united demand by US, UK, and France to declare JeM chief Masood Azhar a terrorist. Short of a declared blockade or a declaration of war, this is the most damage that Pakistan has suffered since perhaps 1971, when Indian forces had reached Islamabad.
The feeble attempt by some to search for virtue in Pakistan’s utter defeat seen in the past two weeks reeks of an attempt to take credit away from the Indian government, where it is due.
Indian government not making detailed official statements in first 48 hrs of this skirmish had left Pakistan clueless about India’s plans. Moreover, IAF Chief’s 4th Mar statement that the operation is ‘ongoing’ caused a nervous breakdown in Rawalpindi. The ‘loss of perception war narrative’ is merely a symptom that Pakistani deep assets in India have been activated in an attempt to scourge information on IAF’s plans.
Lack of communication by Indian government was not an oversight, but a deliberate smokescreen created to keep Pakistan in the dark. Many articles claiming this ‘perception victory’ of Pakistan will be seen in coming days because opposition needs some issue to remain relevant in public discourse.
This is not the first time India’s efforts of keeping Pakistan in check have been unfairly criticized by Indian media. Be it at Kargil, Parliament attack, or Godhra, doubt was sown by INC (and their media assets) to allege government failure in every event. It culminated in NDA’s parliamentary defeat in 2004. The current opposition is engaging in a similar propaganda war again and hoping to repeat 2004.
Furthermore, both Pakistan and their deep assets in India are petrified by India’s most valuable player, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, since they have no clue about his plans vis-a-vis Pakistan’s terror establishment. The entire narrative of ‘perception loss’ is an attempt to get the Indian government to make a statement so that Pakistan can read the NSA’s mind.
For us common folk, it is our duty to see through the veil of deception and politics and stand firm with our Armed Forces and our establishment, to ensure that we destroy the venom of terror before it destroys our generation, and the generations beyond us,
