1 Healthy, 2 Wealthy & 3 Wise — 10th May

Bitcoin Halving, Why BTC, Richard Feynman, Kevin Kelly, Macro Voices, LIBRA & elon Musk

Hi I am Sankalp Shangari and I intend to share my experiences in Financial Markets, Startup & VC world. More importantly, living better meaningful lives in modern day and age. One newsletter to look forward to.

Disclaimer: None of the content in this newsletter is meant to be financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before taking any action related to content within this article. This post is for reference only. It will not help you to “lambo” or “moon” or any other euphemism for unhinged speculation. It should help you to supplement your own analysis of the markets. Enjoy.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“Nobody ever figures out what life is all about, and it doesn’t matter. Explore the world. Nearly everything is really interesting if you go into it deeply enough.”

“There is no miracle people. It just happens that they got interested in this thing and they learned all this stuff.” — Richard Feynman

TWEET/ OF THE WEEK — I still can’t believe Twitter is free. Thank you Jack 👌🏼

Random Thoughts 🧠

Nothing in this post is an investment advice guys

Bitcoin Halving is upon us. Its talk of the town and trending on google searches. First of all, people new to crypto, please make note : “Crypto is very volatile, please do not bet more than you can afford to loose”. That said, its been less volatile than Oil lately. As I write this we have a seen massive bearish action in Bitcoin after an equally spectacular rise in anticipation of halving — a four yearly event where supply of BTC halves.

Paul is a well regarded name on the street. That in itself makes a very bullish case for Bitcoin but I would like to play the devils advocate here. While, Paul is getting into BTC, we never know of his positions (long or short) as he will be primarily playing on futures. Further, halving is almost beyond us now. There could be a spike again but given the macro we are living in and given the SPX highs, I personally believe there is a cap here around 10–11K. BTC should hover between 8.5K & 10.5K for sometime before making a move — depending on how COVID pans out. Long term, we are very bullish of BTC and few top crypto currencies. Few factors that make us even more bullish post halving:

1. Monetary inflation fears — due to unlimited printing by FED — long term bullish for Silver, Gold & BTC
2. New store of value in the modern digital world — Digital Gold. Why not have a secure, easily transferrable, lightweight asset in your wallet then heavy Gold with similar purposes?
3. Paul Tudor’s & several other institutional investments will bring other people into this who have earlier been sitting on sidelines. I always believe in following the “Smart Money”. There is so much more that we don’t know as retail investors.
4. Projects like Facebook’s Libra and China’s DCEP will lead to quicker adoption among masses via their wallets
5. Crypto infrastructure is being built at a record pace — both at individual as well as enterprise level
6. Bitcoins third halving leaves only about 3 million BTC left to be mined. Remember supply of BTC is fixed at 21 million. Powell or Lagarde cannot add to that but beware of greedy Wall Street bankers and their exotic derivatives
7. Bitcoin hash rates are going up like previous rallies and mining is also becoming more widespread outside China — Europe, North America and elsewhere. Coin Metrics unveiled a new type of hashrate index for hashrate derivatives, allowing miners to hedge one of their main sources of uncertainty.

Price wise, some personal thoughts below. Again, this is no investment advise. Closely watching the action over the last few years and how markets have behaved in the last two months, I largely believe in following price action:

• A floor is there around 6.5K for BTC. Any move downward for any reason is a quick buy. BTC has been largely range bound between that floor of 6.5K and 10K
• Short term we could see BTC hover around 9K post halving and try to breach those 10K levels few times. There is some short term risk as how Corona pans out but personally there should be buying opportunities below 6.5K as we have seen again and agin.
• Medium term we move higher, hovering around 10K as supply tightens. The halving pump will create a new normal as there would be only 900 BTC produced everyday (from current 1800). If institutions follow Paul and follow Fidelity and follow the smart money, we should see this supply get really tight leading to higher prices
• Closer towards the end of the year, BTC could make massive moves and make a new range of 15K-20K. Eventually we should see a pump and possible breach of all time highs around 20K. BTC is outperforming every market and by year end Corona should subside or have a vaccine or people just get used to the new norms, whatever they are.

Happy to speak in further details to anyone who wants to talk ab out crypto or general financial markets.

For further reading on this week’s Health Wealth and Wisdom topics, click below

Disclaimer: None of the content in this newsletter is meant to be financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before taking any action related to content within this article. This post is for reference only. It will not help you to “lambo” or “moon” or any other euphemism for unhinged speculation. It should help you to supplement your own analysis of the markets. Enjoy.