BTC price prediction before and after the halvening

Takeaway:

• Summary: Price will do what the crowd expects the least
• Metrics used: Social volume, Coin Age Consumed, On-chain Transaction Volume
• Bonus metric: Token Holders Distribution
• Approach used: Behaviour analysis

One of the best investment approaches is the following: spot “what the crowd expects” and bet against bet. You can’t do it on daily basis. Not even every week. The crowd doesn’t have “consensus” all the time.

But when it does, the smart investor knows that this is the time to act.
The price will do something completely different from what the crowd expects.

Without much more talking, let’s see some data visualisations. We will connect it to the holistic story afterwards.

To start with, here is some specific on-chain activity for BTC:

Now, let’s have a look on an aggregated social volumes related to the “halvening” talks. (remember, we collect at Santiment data not available to Google, namely directly from the crypto-related social channels):

See the spikes? Different data sources, yet the same date, almost the same time.

We could make a story based just on this date alone. However, let’s add few more freshly added to the SAN platform visuals. This time, token holders distribution:

One thing comes out as a surprise.

These aren’t whales who are “buying in” since the black Thursday. The real whales (last chart) are net negative compared to half a year ago. They’ve accumulated only shortly in the last part of the recent rally. To dump it at the top.

Midsize holders are more active in accumulating. And the smallest ones are the most net positive among all of them.

Also, a lot of old coins have been moved recently (the first two charts reveal it).

Moved for what purpose?

This is where the social chart comes into the game.

To sell it to the newcomers. Those who should jump onboard during the expected “halvening rally”. The talks about halvening and BTC are always picking up once the price is able to push up.

But what are these talks? What crowd consensus really is?

• there will be some correction/dumping before the halvening
• dramatic rise thereafter

I doubt it will happen. The sequence of events will be different one.

Probably (my favorite scenario) we will witness:

• growth to around 13–15 kUSD
• everyone FOMOs in
• reason? “this is the halving rally! there won’t be any correction!!”
• once this becomes the new “crowd consensus”
• we do experience “unexpected” and “irrational” dump
• 7–8 kUSD is revisited (or even lower)

Let’s revisit it in one month.

And, leave your comments below.