Predicting crypto market moves? Some lessons I’ve learned on my way…
What an intense crypto time it’s been lately. Here we have BTC, which has risen and is holding steadily below $800, so naturally the question arises — will it go beyond this level this time? Will we see a new ATH (all time high)?
Then we have ETH. It has been constantly under pressure during the last few months, falling as low as $6. Many traders are asking themselves — is it finally the bottom, or must we prepare for a long-term depression?
And how about ZCash? In one month, if you invested $1000, only $200 would be left.
So we wonder…
Is it possible at all to predict the market?
The truth is, no one can make predictions with 100% accuracy. It’s just the nature of the beast.
But, I’ve also learned that there is quite a bit of good news — and hope.
First, I’ve come to accept that if no one can absolutely predict the market, it means we’re all in the same boat, guessing what will happen next (you’re not alone!).
Second, I’ve learned that you don’t need to predict every single move. If one just learns how to avoid the biggest risks, his crypto portfolio should actually perform above average. We’re still in a boat so to speak, but it’s a better boat — one that includes a higher percentage of successful traders and investors.
So… what are these biggest risks?
They can be many, but if we keep it to the fundamentals I’d say there are only three: greed, fear and ignorance.
Translated into crypto trading:
1. Greed: Buying in FOMO (fear of missing out) close to the top.
2. Fear: Selling in panic almost at the bottom.
3. Ignorance: Entering an asset or project that has very weak fundamentals.
Also don’t forget to securely store your crypto assets (ignorance, combined with laziness). The latest example, when hackers stole around $ 300.000 in REP and ETH from Bob Shen, is a good reminder for all of us.
Any of these risks, if they are not addressed in a timely manner, can easily destroy your crypto portfolio… if not completely, they can at least wipe out any gains you may have made over an extended period of time.
Then how do we address these problems?
The most effective way would be to eradicate the roots of greed, fear and ignorance. This is mostly the domain of spiritual disciplines though (yoga, meditation, etc.), so we won’t venture in that direction here.
What are we left with then?
I would say our other most effective weapon: information.
But not just any information. Highly valuable information, at the right time.
I’ve personally noticed that ever since I’ve been able to gather and develop trusted sources of information, I could see bigger risks coming early enough to prepare for them.
I can only encourage you to pay a lot of attention to what information you are consuming while making a decision to trade the crypto markets.
I know it helped me (and others I’ve talked to) to have personally curated information sources based on observation and trackable performance. And these sources aren’t just ones that turn out to be right. I have a few sources that are mostly wrong in what they say and predict — still highly valuable! I believe it would benefit you to have your own set of information, too.
Quick note — if you ever find that your information search takes too much time and effort, you are welcome to join our santiment.net platform. You can just consume information on the platform, or become an information provider yourself. In any case, whatever path you choose, we hope you find a place in a better boat soon.
Maksim Balashevich is the founder of santiment.net.
He has more than 15 years experience building and leading international teams, and more than 10 years experience in financial markets analysis.
Lately he has focused solely on Elliott Waves Theory, sentiment analysis and crowd psychology in crypto markets.
He also draws upon his unique background in a yogic way of life to foster a human-focused, balanced approach to building teams, communities and decentralized platforms. He believes it is especially important in an area like finance to promote trust and transparency from the beginning and on every level, to create a better society for all people.