High School Musical: The Musical: The Series: The Recap: “Most Likely To”

Dave Wheelroute
Saoirse Ronan Deserves an Oscar
10 min readJul 4, 2021
Image from Seventeen

“You’ve been here before, Ricky.”

Season two, episode eight of High School Musical: The Musical: The Series, “Most Likely To,” was directed by Paul Hoen and written by Nneka Gerstle.

Let’s address the good news first. After weeks of lamenting the lack of screen time for E.J., a true breakout character, he finally got his due in the eighth episode of the season. The installment essentially opens with the East High theater department rehearsing the fully-blocked performance of “Gaston.” Naturally, this provides a solid showcase for E.J. — portraying the song’s titular character — as he is arguably the show’s best cast role as the handsome and hammy antagonist. (It also provides the most extensive, in-episode singing opportunity for Big Red yet.) The number is a rousing, high-energy one and among the best from the season so far. I found it to be note-perfect and filled with fun (Big Red shooting an egg into an empty ale mug from across the room). I’m glad the season has beyond embraced its Alan Menken influences by now.

This isn’t all E.J. gets to do, though. After the performance, the cast and crew are informed they are suspended from rehearsing for one week after they broke into North High last week (North High is also suspended for stealing the Beast’s mask). As a result, the rest of the episode’s backdrop is set against Career Day, in a manner similar to a flurry of character interactions playing out against Thanksgiving or Valentine’s Day. This allows us an opportunity to revisit E.J.’s heartbreak over being rejected by Duke University.

When his father (named Cash Caswell, which, well, yes) arrives to provide a speech for career-curious students, E.J. learns that Cash pulled some strings and made some calls to get E.J. into Duke, after all. Watching him clutch a crewneck Duke jumper, it’s obvious to us all that this accomplishment means nothing without E.J. feeling like he genuinely earned the privilege.

He admits as much later in the episode when he shares a heart-to-heart with his weekly flirt, Gina. Initially, E.J. sought advice from his cousin, Ashlyn, but he gets exactly what he needs from Gina instead. (Side note: Gina tells him Ashlyn is not home because she went out to buy a shirt. Before we see what shirt Ashlyn bought, it comes across like a very low-effort reason to keep her away from the scene, but I was still tickled by its initial silliness.)

E.J. openly speaks about his past failings, recalling his proclivity for cheating and bribery in the past. Gina listens and counters by saying when she sees E.J., she sees someone who tries to do the right thing and, while he fails a lot, he never stops trying. Finally, she recalls that he bought her a plane ticket to the performance of High School Musical last season, which then prompts E.J. to tell Gina everything he loves about her. Obviously, these two are going to be a couple, but moments of surface-platonic intimacy like these are very genuine when speaking to the feelings that people have when they know dating is inevitable, but they’re not ready to broach the subject. It’ll make it feel all the sweeter when they do link up.

That brings us to the bad news, though. Because for all the work that was done to produce a truly sweet coupling between Ricky and Nina during the first season, it was ultimately for naught. Ricky and Nina broke up in “Most Likely To” and while a break-up in the eighth episode might seem like drama for drama’s sake before a late season rekindling, I actually doubt it. The scene between Ricky and Nina felt final. They don’t go on a break; they truly break up in Nina’s treehouse (“Right Here, Right Now,” anyone?).

Last week, I wrote that these two needed to have a conversation with one another because they were withholding their emotional honesty. The cold open of this week’s episode implies that a conversation is to come, but I certainly did not expect it to be one that ended the relationship that seemed like the true heart and engine of the series. Even Troy and Gabriella made it last!

The logline quote for this article was spoken by Big Red, as Ricky seeks advice during class (but Big Red is well past advising him and is instead enjoying a podcast, which, you know, same). He’s partially freaking out over Nina ignoring him, but he’s also partially freaking out over the fact that he, in a fit of jealousy, deleted a comment from her new Instagram feed. The comment was seeking a collaboration with Nina, but that’s beside the point. What ended Nina’s relationship with E.J. in season one was E.J. deleting a voicemail from Ricky off of Nina’s phone without her consent. When Ricky did the exact same thing, I initially recoiled at the show’s audacity to repeat a story arc. Now, though, I see that it was to clue the audience into the fact that this relationship was reaching its nadir.

Obviously, what Ricky did was wrong. (Even though IG comments requesting collabs are usually bullshit.) But each subsequent conversation showed me that he was not the only one unintentionally sabotaging their relationship. Until the break-up conversation in the treehouse, every interaction between Nina and Ricky followed the same pattern. Nina would lie about her feelings, Ricky would try absurdly hard to keep the conversation going from there, and then Nina would make him feel bad for making assumptions that she clearly wanted him to make. When you get to that stage, repairing the pairing is just too tough. They weren’t meant to be together anymore. Granted, the writing partially helped make it that way (especially considering how romantic the final two episodes of season one were), but I’m starting to see that those were necessary growing pains to bring the character arcs to the place where they feel more natural and — by extension — more relatable.

Independence is the right arc for Nina and Ricky’s character will be much better served without him chasing after her and never knowing where they stand (the most frustrating thing in any fading friendship or relationship). I just feel so sad about it because I was so invested in their relationship and it was such an adorable element of the 2019–20 fall and winter. I never thought a break-up would actually be final because the show spent so much time working towards that relationship. There is just a sense of melancholy within me now that the relationship is over and, even though it’ll probably be for the best long term (if they weren’t going to be cute, they were going to hold the show back, like Sad Gina™), I just feel sad for a little bit right now. It’s okay.

The conversation I long wanted them to have did reveal why they were not right for each other anymore, though. Ricky is projecting his lack of security in a relationship onto Nina and she feels held back by him. I mean, she cut out his nickname (Nini) and fully became Nina. It probably should’ve been evident that their relationship was over long before episode eight. I must say, though, Olivia Rodrigo and Joshua Bassett were remarkable in that scene. Her tears were definitely natural and there was no fake crying at play there whatsoever. (Rodrigo has hinted that she wants to focus on singing, as opposed to acting, but there is so much talent in both. Maybe with this story development, Rodrigo won’t even stay on the show?) Bassett might have had the harder job, though. Rodrigo expressed immense hurt at losing a major part of her entire life up to that point, but her subsequent focus on Instagram comments shows that she has other things in her life. Bassett, on the other hand, loses a relationship he loved and tries to demonstrate as much support for her new wishes as he can. He holds it together in the treehouse, returns her gift from season one, and departs with a few tears in his eyes. When he arrives at Big Red’s, though, he lets it all go. He doesn’t even need to say anything before Big Red is on his feet and Ricky is crying into his shoulder. It’s a remarkable performance from everyone involved and the reason it hurt so much and felt so sad is because I’ve been there before, as I imagine many have. Many can relate to how deeply and emotionally painful that moment was. While Ricky and Nina were cute together, that astounding relatability the show found (complete with Ricky tearfully clutching a pillow while watching a movie with Big Red and Ashlyn) speaks more truthfully to the loss of a first love than most high school stories with eternal sweethearts do. I respect HSM: TM: TS for going to a place with authenticity and care in a way no comparable show has ever done before.

Like I said, all of this made their ending seem very final and I hope the show finds rich territory for both characters to occupy now that they are apart from one another. It’s not a guarantee after blowing up the central beat of the show, but I don’t want to lose what made these characters so great as individuals. Either way, the show has addressed — for better and for worse — every qualm I had two-thirds of the way through the season. Hopefully, it’s setting us up for a stellar third act.

I feel a bit drained after writing about that relationship (I truly loved it) ending, so we’ll just do some quick hits on the other elements of relationship drama this week. Gratefully, we largely avoided all drama with North High this week, allowing us instead to focus on the characters we love; the show was all the better for it. There was the fallout from Howie betraying Kourtney by not telling her he was cast as the Beast in North High’s production. She is uninterested in boy drama and he wanted her to get to know him for him (that ol’ trope-nut). I can see where both are coming from, but when they stop talking and start singing, I enjoyed seeing the impact of the heart song. Howie takes a solo rendition to the Broadway Beauty and the Beast’s “If I Can’t Love Her,” which is laid over a montage of the various relationship drama elements from the installment and the season so far.

There is auto-tuning at play, but Roman Banks certainly has powerful pipes. It’s an emotional track that speaks to many of the episode’s thematic elements (namely the impossibility of moving on from a lost love that once felt so great) and it underscores palpable emotions from characters we’ve come to love over the past eighteen episodes. Kourtney’s reaction to Howie’s song certainly seems to indicate they’ll come to love each other even more.

As for Big Red and Ashlyn, the aforementioned shirt she purchased was one from his family’s pizza place. After Career Day suggested Big Red had a future in hospitality, she encouraged him to take the test again and instead be anything he wants to be. Yet, he’s not interested in being a star like she is; he just wants to aim lower to be happy. He leaves meekly when he believes that wouldn’t be enough for her. Yet, her gesture of wearing the t-shirt spoke more to his dream than the ambitious vision board she created and all shreds of friction and jealousy from the French boy last week seem to be wiped away, too.

Elsewhere and with a suspension in place, Ms. Jenn spends Career Day trying to record a promotional video with Mr. Mazzara as the camera operator. Her relationship with Ricky’s father was dropped so abruptly, but I won’t be mad about it if it gets these two faculty members together quicker. They’re filling the hole of cuteness I had regarding this show, what with Mr. Mazzara wanting to call her gorgeous and furtively bringing out her natural talents (he also basically shoots his shot when mentioning faculty members shouldn’t date; how else would she take that?). Every scene they shared was super adorable.

Lastly, Seb and Carlos remain a grateful constant on the show. Ever since Seb’s rendition of “The Climb,” they have provided a romantic anchor for the show that had begun to spiral out into manufactured drama for its other couples. Seb is a bit miffed about being told Chip doesn’t have any big scenes (I mean, he doesn’t really), but if Ashlyn and Big Red’s jealousy/ambition drama was resolved expediently, I have to imagine the spat between Seb and Carlos will be, too. Some have said that Carlos is too pushy in their relationship, but he has the same personality he had in season one, I promise. Plus, Seb was happily talking about Greta Gerwig in the episode (also, same), so all will be well, I’m sure.

Again, we’re two-thirds of the way through the season (so sad) and all of my biggest problems with the arc have been resolved. The show has gone through a painstaking amount of work to establish the proper levels of character independence and chemistry, so let’s hope that everything established thus far will lead to some stellar pay-offs. Considering this was one of the best episodes the show has ever done (meaning we’re now on a two-installment hot streak), I feel pretty good about those chances.

Read previous recaps:

High School Musical: The Musical: The Series: The Recap: “New Year’s Eve”

High School Musical: The Musical: The Series: The Recap: “Typecasting”

High School Musical: The Musical: The Series: The Recap: “Valentine’s Day”

High School Musical: The Musical: The Series: The Recap: “The Storm”

High School Musical: The Musical: The Series: The Recap: “The Quinceañero”

High School Musical: The Musical: The Series: The Recap: “Yes, And”

High School Musical: The Musical: The Series: The Recap: “The Field Trip”

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Dave Wheelroute
Saoirse Ronan Deserves an Oscar

Writer of Saoirse Ronan Deserves an Oscar & The Television Project: 100 Favorite Shows. I also wrote a book entitled Paradigms as a Second Language!