Predicting the 2019 Oscars with 100% Accuracy
In 2016, the narrative about the Academy Awards became one of Moonlight v. La La Land with a distant Manchester by the Sea competing for bronze. Obviously, that ceremony made like Meryl Streep and went flippity-floppity and the wrong winner was announced. In 2017, the narrative became about legacy. What Oscar movies have a legacy? And many considered Lady Bird, Get Out, and Phantom Thread to be the three movies that will be remembered from the group of Best Picture nominees, even though none of them were ever projected to have a real shot at the trophy. It was between The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and now it’s been a year and these movies are still good, but they’ve yet to find a true cultural footing.
This year, the narrative seems to be about the fact that 2018 just wasn’t that great of a year for movies. Don’t get me wrong, every year has a lot of great movies, but, top to bottom, the year as a whole just wasn’t as strong as it’s been in past years. The movies that were great are, for the most part, also being snubbed by the Academy Awards, which is just compounding the problem as we walked directly into the shadowy vortex of one of the all-time worst groups of Best Picture nominees. Frankly, I’m content with a victory for Roma or A Star Is Born and I’m downright pulling for Black Panther (Bohemian Rhapsody would make my best friend delighted and that would also be enough for me), but if any of the others pulled it off, they’d be competing with Crash for a Razzie Oscar (if such a thing might ever exist).
But I don’t want to complain about the Oscars. Sure, there are a lot of questionable nominees and likely winners, but there are always are! (Driving Miss Daisy won, remember? That happened!) We can never have the Oscars be exactly what we want them to be; that would be absurd. Instead, we should focus on the wonderful surprises that helped remind us why every category matters (and should be televised).
For example, Christopher Robin was nominated for Best Visual Effects! That’s delightful and charming. Additionally, the Academy leaned more towards their bias for the Coen brothers rather than their bias against Netflix and gave a lot of love to The Ballad of Buster Scruggs. That’s fantastic! And while Mary Poppins Returns was left out of the main categories, it still got a lot of love and will have a big presence at the Oscars. Thanos will make an appearance there, too, surely! For all the Oscars get wrong, they still get a lot of things right. And a lot of 2018 in film is represented here. Maybe not as much as we’d like, but there are still a lot of major strides! And with all that being said, let’s move on into the categories. My preferences will be listed, surely, but the predictions will also be made. These are guaranteed to be completely accurate because I’m a time traveler who doesn’t really feel like committing to that bit too strongly!
Additionally, you can listen to my sister and I discuss our favorite movies nominated for Best Picture since 2009, which was the year of the rule change that eventually led to the nomination of Black Panther, over on my podcast, Goodbye Mello Brick Road! We also talked about our favorite moments from Black Panther about a year ago! Time flies.
Without further ado, here we go! The completely, entirely, undeniably one hundred percent accurate predictions of the 91st Academy Awards:
Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Will Win: A lot of the precursor visual effects awards have gone to Avengers: Infinity War so that is the smart play here.
Should Win: The work on Thanos is truly incredible, but there will still be a chance to award it in Avengers: Endgame next year (probably). I’m giving all my love to Christopher Robin. Go Pooh!
Potential Surprise: It was a surprise that it was nominated, but that just indicates the support for Christopher Robin is extremely underrated.
Best Film Editing
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice
Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody faced a lot of backlash for its editing win at the awards for that guild so look for The Favourite which toppled Vice in the comedy category.
Should Win: Vice had the best editing to me of this group. It wasn’t as strong as it was in Adam McKay’s prior feature, The Big Short, but it still played with a lot of conventions very effectively.
Potential Surprise: It’s gotta be Bohemian Rhapsody, which is an editing mess, but has a lot of industry support.
Best Costume Design
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
Will Win: Votes might be split between Mary Poppins Returns and The Favourite, as they both were supported by the same costume designer, Sandy Powell. Ruth Carter from Black Panther is the candidate who would slip in.
Should Win: There’s no doubt on this one. All of the costumes in Mary Poppins Returns are so delightful and beautiful (especially the ones in the bowl sequences) and I think they are absolutely deserving of the win!
Potential Surprise: If it’s not Panther or Poppins, a lot of crafts support for The Favourite could bolster it here.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice
Will Win: It’s definitely going to be Vice, I feel.
Should Win: Mary Queen of Scots did a pretty good job with it, but a lot of it felt very History Channel-y to me. Vice should be the winner in this category, largely because there is no Vice without the makeup and hairstyling.
Potential Surprise: I find a surprise here very unlikely, but Mary Queen of Scots has the period piece and historical piece support.
Best Cinematography
Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star Is Born
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron is definitely likely to win cinematography for his own movie, Roma, because it has quite the bit of build-up in terms of precursor awards.
Should Win: This is a pretty solid list of nominees, but the winner should definitely be Roma. One of the most interesting movies to watch, especially visually, deserves it and every frame of this movie was pure art.
Potential Surprise: Never sleep on the amount of love that the Academy seems to have for Cold War, which could be a major disruption for The Favourite, which is counting on the technical award sweep strategy.
Best Production Design
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
Will Win: This award, when possible, seems to want to go to the period piece, especially the ones that are based on historical European royalty. Points to The Favourite.
Should Win: Look, I’m just so biased towards Mary Poppins Returns. Truthfully, all of these nominees are very deserving, but Poppins was just so charming in every sequence and it’s impressive to stage a musical in that way so flawlessly.
Potential Surprise: If Black Panther can win here and build some support across other categories, it might be a potential surprise in more than just this category.
Best Sound Mixing
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
Will Win: Each of these films has a claim for the award, but precursor guild awards seem to lean towards Bohemian Rhapsody.
Should Win: I will never truly understand the difference between sound mixing and sound editing, but I will not hold that against those who work in that field who are surely very talented. But in this category, as crucial as sound is to Roma, I think it is more impressively pulled off in A Star Is Born.
Potential Surprise: After First Man was snubbed at these awards, there might be some members of the Academy who want to give it its due if they regret what happened. But, also, they might not regret it yet.
Best Sound Editing
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma
Will Win: I think the voters will agree with me on this. No movie has deserved this category like A Quiet Place does.
Should Win: I could say a lot of the same things as I did in the previous category, but no. No movie depended on the concept of sound as much as A Quiet Place did and it deserves this award.
Potential Surprise: See the above reasoning for a potential First Man slip-in.
Best Original Song
“All the Stars” (Black Panther)
“I’ll Fight” (RBG)
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” (Mary Poppins Returns)
“Shallow” (A Star Is Born)
“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
Will Win: It’s the song of the year in the world of film. I bet the Oscars wants Lady Gaga on stage at least twice. It will most likely be “Shallow” from A Star Is Born.
Should Win: This is probably my favorite category of 2019 and I’m so thankful all the nominees will get to perform live! That being said, as much as I loved the music in Scruggs, Poppins, and Star, I can’t deny that “All the Stars” was definitely one of my songs of the year. Seminal and surely iconic.
Potential Surprise: I’d say it’s about an 80/20 split in terms of likelihood between “Shallow” and “All the Stars” and nothing else really has a chance. The Kendrick Lamar and SZA anthem would definitely be a welcome surprise, though.
Best Original Score
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
Will Win: This one, you know, I don’t really have a good sense of it. The Academy seems reluctant to award Mary Poppins Returns. The score for BlacKkKlansman does not seem to have a ton of staying power. But the one that does, I think, is If Beale Street Could Talk.
Should Win: All of these movies had really great scores and I hate to betray Black Panther and Ludwig Goransson, but Mary Poppins Returns was legitimately one of my favorite scores of the past decade and probably ever so I have to give it the edge.
Potential Surprise: The voters love Alexandre Desplat, so I wouldn’t completely rule out a win for Isle of Dogs.
Best Animated Short Film
Animal Behaviour
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends
Will Win: I bet most voters have, like me, also only seen Bao.
Should Win: Bao is the only one I saw, but I also really liked it so I am okay with supporting it in this way!
Potential Surprise: The only other one that seems to have a little bit of buzz is Weekends, but Bao is one of the truest locks of the year.
Best Live Action Short Film
Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin
Will Win: The support seems to be leaning towards Marguerite.
Should Win: Not applicable as I did not see any of these nominees. Sorry!
Potential Surprise: I’ve heard Mother is a downer, but these categories are not strangers to downers.
Best Documentary — Short Subject
Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End of Sentence.
Will Win: The precursor support seems to indicate love for Period. End of Sentence. It also has one of those names you can just hear the presenter reading.
Should Win: Not applicable as I did not see any of these nominees. Sorry!
Potential Surprise: There is a lot of interesting elements at play in A Night at the Garden, in case the Academy feels like awarding originality. At least, based on the synopsis.
Best Documentary — Feature
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG
Will Win: The prelude of documentary awards have almost been unanimous for Free Solo.
Should Win: Let’s be real, Won’t You Be My Neighbor? should be the winner, but it wasn’t even nominated! And that being said, I only saw RBG, but I know many loved the other ones. But it’s hard to bet against Ginsburg.
Potential Surprise: This category is ripe for a baffling decision and I think that might just be Hale County This Morning, This Evening.
Best Foreign Language Film
Capernaum
Cold War
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters
Will Win: Roma is practically a lock.
Should Win: Another category where I only saw one nominee, but come on, Roma is the runaway favorite and the best lock of the night. It’s also one of my favorites of 2018 and one of my favorite foreign films ever!
Potential Surprise: The only other one with major support is Cold War so this could shake out where Roma gets Best Picture so it doesn’t necessarily “need” Best Foreign Language Film. Or, it could go to Cold War and that would indicate that there is no consensus behind Roma. Basically, if Roma doesn’t win this category, the whole ceremony descends into chaos and everyone starts running around backstage like they are SpongeBob clones within his mind.
Best Animated Feature Film
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Will Win: All the animated support beforehand indicates universal love of Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. I was close to picking it, too.
Should Win: Everyone, Ralph Breaks the Internet is really good. That’s not to say that Spider-Verse isn’t also really good, but boy am I a sucker for Disney princesses.
Potential Surprise: Never underestimate the love of the Oscars for Pixar. Incredibles 2 might just slip in because it’s a requisite.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
Will Win: Most other nominees have knocks against them even being nominated so this seems like it’s shaping up to be the consolation prize for BlacKkKlansman.
Should Win: I’m not sure how it even fits into this category, but watching The Ballad of Buster Scruggs and hearing that script come to life was akin to reading James Joyce.
Potential Surprise: Can You Ever Forgive Me? just came away with a WGA win so it’s definitely a contender here.
Best Original Screenplay
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice
Will Win: All the love for originality is for The Favourite, which could serve to be another consolation prize. After all, Green Book is all but eliminated from contention here, based on controversy.
Should Win: Most of these candidates make a pretty compelling case, but I was floored by Roma and its screenplay. Easily one of the most well-written movies I’ve seen and it really has the power to stay with you.
Potential Surprise: Let’s get fucking wild and say First Reformed.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (Vice)
Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Will Win: Stone and Weisz will split the vote, most likely, after the BAFTAs were not as big as they were hoping for them. de Tavira was a surprise nomination. And the Academy is not ready for Adams’ coronation. Combine all that with the precursors and it’s Regina King’s race to lose.
Should Win: We are well past the time for Amy Adams to not have an Oscar. Don’t get me wrong, everyone in this category delivers a stellar performance, but it’s time to move on from the “consolation Oscar” and go into full-on crisis mode to decorate Adams.
Potential Surprise: BAFTAs be damned! This might just end up in the hands of Rachel Weisz.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Sam Rockwell (Vice)
Will Win: Mahershala Ali has practically had this thing locked up for months and he’s the only one who has successfully weathered the controversies of Green Book. Remember when he was, like, the eighth lead on House of Cards?
Should Win: Same thing as above, really. Everyone here is doing pretty solid work, but when I think about the sheer impossibility of the role, I have to prefer Sam Rockwell. Bush is one of those presidents that I have a hard time believing when it is portrayed by an actor. No one came closer to shaking that than Rockwell has.
Potential Surprise: One last slap in the face for Cooper, this could go to Sam Elliott.
Best Actress
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Will Win: The Golden Globes sealed the deal, even though they have a minimal impact on the Oscars. Congratulations Glenn Close, you won’t be snubbed anymore.
Should Win: Well, if we can’t have Emily Blunt anywhere then fine, I’ll pick from this group. But fortunately, this group is exceptional! I’m giving the edge to Yalitza Aparicio, who is one of the most impressive breakout stars to come onto the scene in years. Her performance was beautiful, moving, and real. Shouts to Yalitza.
Potential Surprise: Maybe the Oscars want Lady Gaga up there a third time.
Best Actor
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
Will Win: I don’t really understand how it happened, but somewhere along the way during the Oscars race, Rami Malek became a frontrunner and never looked back.
Should Win: Maybe it’s time to let the old ways die. No more awards for physical transformations or “racism is bad” movies or by-the-numbers biopics. No. It’s time to give Bradley Cooper something this awards season. He’s well past due.
Potential Surprise: This was once Christian Bale’s to lose so maybe everything is a flat circle and we just end up back in Vice territory for the acting categories.
Best Director
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Adam McKay (Vice)
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron has the potential to dominate the entire night. Director parity is overblown, I’m predicting Cuaron with confidence.
Should Win: No one had more control over their film and did a better job of fully realizing their vision to near total perfection than Alfonso Cuaron did. I love his work on Roma.
Potential Surprise: Just like Martin Scorsese’s win for The Departed, we might be seeing some retroactive love for Spike Lee here.
Best Picture
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
Will Win: It honestly will probably be Roma. We like to say it’s a wide open race, but it’s not really. If the early awards of the night change, though, we could be in for a wild ride. But I’m not expecting that. Black Panther alienates the traditionalists. Vice alienated the critical elements. Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody might not weather the blowback. A Star Is Born has faded fast. The Favourite is too niche. But what about BlacKkKlansman?
Should Win: Roma and A Star Is Born are both worthy, for sure. But 2018 will forever be remembered as the year of Wakanda Forever. Black Panther should be the winner, if for no reason other than the cultural impact. It’s changed the game. It should win. (Yes, I’m biased because it’s my favorite, but come on.) But seriously, don’t count it out. I would never bet money on it winning, but there’s no clear favorite (not even The Favourite!) and, well, it could easily slip in. Preferential ballots. Cultural moment. Oprah. I’m just saying, Wakanda might be forever.
Potential Surprise: If you look at all the things that almost every Best Picture winner has won or been nominated for leading up to the announcement of the main prize, the only one that fits the criteria is BlacKkKlansman. Could be a big shocker!
