Predictions for the 93rd Academy Awards
“Minari can be put in kimchi, put in stew, put in soup. It can be medicine if you are sick. Minari is wonderful, wonderful!”
The above image may be from Variety, but you don’t need to pay attention to their awards coverage. It’s lacking, sub-par, downright incoherent (as one might hear from Jackie Chiles). This is the place to be for predictions for tonight’s 93rd Academy Awards ceremony that are one hundred percent accurate! (*Rounded up from 99.4% accuracy.)
Keep in mind I’m also in the middle of a walloping bout with the second dose of the Pfizer gang (get that vaccine, people!), so any incorrect predictions are to be blamed solely on big pharma and perhaps an underestimation of the Academy’s affinity for Mank fever. If you’d prefer you can also check out an alternate take on the Oscars, which will surely be more entertaining.
Best Visual Effects
Will Win: The Midnight Sky. I think the respect for The Midnight Sky is much more skewed in terms of Academy voters versus regular audiences. They love Clooney! First Man, Interstellar, and Gravity have all won this award before, so I think space movies will shine.
Should Win: Tenet. I’m not the biggest fan of Tenet. I wouldn’t even consider myself a fan of Tenet. But it did have impressive visual effects and I think the only thing preventing it from winning here is the fact that Warner Brothers all but gave up campaigning for the movie after Christopher Nolan trashed HBO Max.
Best Film Editing
Will Win: Nomadland. Typically, the only precursor for a Best Picture win is a Best Editing nomination. But I just have the vibe that Nomadland is a runaway favorite across the board this season and I think voters will check the box for its editing, too. It’s tough to give a wandering, shapeless movie form, after all.
Should Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7. I’ve always loved the editing present in Aaron Sorkin movies. It turns dialogue and conversations into set pieces as thrilling as the Avengers taking on Thanos. There are, at least, four editing magic tricks in Trial, so I’d give the trophy to that team.
Best Costume Design
Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. There is a ton of support for Ma Rainey in a lot of the below-the-line categories. I haven’t looked to any Vegas odds, but I do follow a few trustworthy prognosticators and the guild award precursors. I’d be stunned if Ma Rainey lost here.
Should Win: Mulan. Granted, I was wowed by the costumes in Mulan. My alternate Oscars gave a nomination to the Disney remake, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that I found this department to be one of the strongest elements of the film.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will/Should Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. This year, it seems like makeup and costuming will go hand in hand. I’m not mad about it either! There is an impressive feat throughout the movie of pulling of both really exorbitant and grandiose hairstyles and makeup looks, while also balancing it with more subtle takes that contribute to the quality of the look of the movie just as much.
Best Cinematography
Will Win: Nomadland. Aside from the two biggest categories, it seems like the Nomadland team had been campaigning most strongly for the cinematography trophy. I wasn’t crazy about Nomadland, but there’s no denying the pseudo-documentary and gorgeous vista-exemplifying nature of the way it’s shot is a strong suit.
Should Win: Mank. I also wasn’t over the black-and-white moon as much for Mank either. But I did adore how the film was shot as if it was a fade-to-black-at-the-end-of-each-scene kind of stage production with a strong use of the aforementioned color ratio. The lighting was off occasionally, I felt, but Mank was just too strong from a cinematography point of view to ignore. If Mank is shut out, this might be the only one I’d feel iffy on.
Best Production Design
Will/Should Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. There is no denying the care and craft that went into a lot of the technical elements of Ma Rainey, even if it did come across too stagey at times. But the below-the-line strength will continue here with an enclosed, clearly-paced production design that enhances the quality of the movie, rather than become a distracting viewpoint.
Best Sound
Will Win: Sound of Metal. Whenever a movie makes explicit choices on the sound design in a way that the film could not exist without, it seems like a sure bet to win. But I feel like Sound of Metal has a lot more support than A Quiet Place did a couple years ago, so I’d imagine the movie with the category in the title will win here.
Should Win: Soul. I didn’t see Sound of Metal so take this with a grain of the salt-and-pepper style in Joe Gardner’s hair. But I don’t think Soul works without the immaculate sound design present throughout the film. Animated movies tend to be so overlooked in these technical categories! Give it some love!
Best Original Song
Will/Should Win: “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga. Do I truly think “Husavik” will win? I don’t know. It’s tough to expect the Academy to do the right thing when the category is filled with Diane Warren and titles like, “I Will Fight (For You).” (Is that even a real song? Might as well be. The other four nominees all blend together.) What am I doing here if I don’t push all the poker chips in on “Husavik,” though? Who am I? Eurovision was my favorite narrative film of 2020 and “Husavik” is a major reason for that. It’s the centerpiece of the emotional climax of the film and it is the only nominee that actually matters to the movie it’s in. The nomination was a long shot and they say the win is, too, but the team has been running an incredible campaign with push pieces abound. The song is gorgeously sung, partially in Icelandic, and is still silly enough to fit the tone of the movie and the singing spectacle. It needs to win! This is the only category I’m truly invested in. If “Husavik” wins, it will validate my entire film-going and film-advocating experience of the year. (I have been banging the Eurovision drum for eleven months now.) I’m happy to be here, but let’s push further. Let’s secure that win. Let’s get Will Ferrell an Oscar. If “Husavik” wins, I will go to my local street corner and ask passing cars if they heard that Ferrell won an Oscar.
Best Original Score
Will/Should Win: Soul. This is the Oscars of Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross. But let’s get Jon Batiste a trophy, too, while we’re at it! The score for Soul is so flexible and dynamic. Every piece maintains the proper tone, but they all work together to achieve certain goals in the film that vary on a scene-by-scene basis. It’s great work and one of the best Pixar scores. (Coming from a studio that also pulled off great scores for Toy Story, Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, Up, and Inside Out.) Let’s see a Pixar win here, too.
Best Animated Short Film
Will/Should Win: Burrow. This is the only short I saw in this category, but it was really cute! It gave me Frog and Toad/Winnie the Pooh/Fantastic Mr. Fox vibes and I think it should win because of that. :)
Best Live Action Short Film
Will Win: Two Distant Strangers. I have not seen any of the nominees here, but this one seems to be pulling ahead. Plus, it was produced by The Ringer’s Van Lathan, so I’d also like to see it win because of that.
Best Documentary Short Subject
Will Win: A Love Song for Latasha. I haven’t seen any of these, but Latasha was released on Netflix, which makes me think it had the best chance of getting Oscar voters’ eyeballs on it.
Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: My Octopus Teacher. This one seems like a three-horse race between Octopus, Crip Camp, and Time. Time is more the critical darling and Crip Camp seems too obvious for a category that previously eschewed Jane Goodall and Mr. Rogers. For some reason, Octopus is the one standing out to me, so I’m going with my gut.
Best International Feature Film
Will Win: Another Round. While the documentary category can be tricky to predict if a film gets a nomination elsewhere, too, the international category is much more indicative. For example, Parasite nabbed noms outside this category, so it was a shoo-in to win here. Another Round secured a Best Director nomination, so it should win this trophy in a walk.
Best Animated Feature Film
Will/Should Win: Soul. There’s been a weird Pixar backlash this year, saying that a win for Soul would be a win for Pixar “just making a movie.” Soul was beautiful and it deserves the win! I dug Wolfwalkers, but it was just a bit too much plot for me. Lots of convoluted storytelling and while I may have preferred that Cartoon Saloon animation style, I assure you I was much more moved by Soul. Worthy winner here!
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: The Father. I think there’s been a lot of growing support for The Father and the screenplay category is where I think it’ll break through. I feel like Nomadland isn’t really renowned for its screenplay and Miami has less support among voters than I expected, which leaves The Father as a clear choice to pull ahead here.
Should Win: One Night in Miami. That being said, I still support One Night in Miami and Kemp Powers’ immaculate writing work. It’s perfectly written, to me, so I’d love to see One Night in Miami take at least one award here.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Promising Young Woman. The screenplay category is traditionally a spot where the Academy finds a way to throw a statuette to the movies it loved, but not enough to give the top prizes. Promising will surely show up again, but I think this will be the place where it pulls off a victory that would’ve been impossible a decade ago.
Should Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7. Look, man, I’m just a sucker for Sorkin. I know the ending he chose for this film is a little weird and he’s canceled for it or whatever, but I don’t give a shit. The man is the best living screenwriter and I’m not opposed to writing his name in here whenever he writes a screenplay.
Best Supporting Actress
Will/Should Win: Youn Yuh-jung for Minari. I think Amanda Seyfried was probably the best part of Mank and Maria Bakalova would be pretty fun if she won for the sequel to Borat. But Youn Yuh-jung is truly giving a great supporting performance and she pulls off the delicate balance of anchoring Minari while not dominating its emotional core. Considering she’s gaining momentum in the precursor awards, I think she might really win here.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah. Is Kaluuya a supporting performer in Judas? Perhaps not. But he’s definitely more supporting than Lakeith Stanfield and this category seems wrapped up at this point. It’s probably the Oscar coronation I’m most excited for tonight.
Should Win: Leslie Odom, Jr. for One Night in Miami. I still really ride for Odom’s performance as Sam Cooke in One Night in Miami. He never comes across like he’s doing an impression and provides a real lived-in feel to a star who seems so well-known to the world at this point.
Best Actress
Will Win: Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman. This category is such a toss-up. There are extremely plausible scenarios where Mulligan, Viola Davis, Andra Day, and Frances McDormand could all win. The precursors have been absolutely split across the board. Day’s movie is too disliked by voters, I think. McDormand and Davis already won recently. That’s why I feel like Mulligan might have the best chance. But it could go any direction here. Don’t bet on this one unless you’re betting against Vanessa Kirby.
Should Win: Andra Day for The United States vs. Billie Holiday. I didn’t see Promising Young Woman, but I would hesitate to award McDormand and Davis for performances that are far from the best in their careers. Andra Day, though, probably single-handedly saved The United States vs. Billie Holiday from the Razzies. I’m over beginning-middle-end biopics, but Day is truly revelatory in the role.
Best Actor
Will/Should Win: Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. There is, like, a two-percent momentum pull for Anthony Hopkins right now, but I think this one is sewn up. Chadwick Boseman will win for his turn as Levee in Ma Rainey, providing charm to a character that could easily come across as way too narcissistic. It will be a moving, posthumous victory, but I think it’s also incredibly well-deserved.
Best Director
Will Win: Chloé Zhao for Nomadland. This one has been a foregone conclusion for months. It will be so exciting to see a woman of color win the Best Director Oscar. I am sure Marvel has already cut a trailer for Eternals that says “from Academy Award-winning director.” Congratulations, Zhao!
Should Win: Lee Isaac Chung for Minari. Zhao is great and she’s definitely “one to watch” (I’ve been saying this since The Rider, so it’s probably just going to become a bit). But I just liked Minari more than Nomadland, so I’d like to see Lee Isaac Chung get recognized for his exceptional talent on that film, even though t’s not going to happen.
Best Picture
Will Win: Nomadland. I can see a world where the Academy continues to push into unconventional territory and it awards Promising Young Woman. I can also envision a scenario where it goes back to the crowd-pleasing days of recent memory and awards Trial, which will be fun to watch people on Twitter have a meltdown over. But I do think the obvious answer is the right one, especially in a year that has been highly telegraphed for the Oscars (we didn’t need to delay the ceremony two months). Not to mention, the attempts at pushing back on the Nomadland narrative seemed to falter, even though I think the Amazon criticism is well-founded. It seems like the favorite is the one here. (Unlike two years ago when The Favourite was not the one.)
Should Win: Minari. I just loved Minari! Trial would be welcome by me, too, but I think Minari would be such a special victory and a really sweet and charming little bow on the night. I feel like Minari is more loved than Nomadland, which is more respected. It would just be lovely if Minari won! The real winner is the film industry, though! Let’s make sure movies never die. Movies like Minari. :)
Place your bets while you can! Don’t yell at me or Steven Soderbergh when this ceremony gets the lowest ratings yet; train stations are fun! (Just ask the man and the girl drinking by the white elephant-esque hills.)
