The Future in 5 Years: The Impact of AGI on the Global Economy

In the next five years, I firmly believe that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will revolutionize the global economy and transform economic life forever. This belief is backed by insights from prominent figures in the AI field, including Sam Altman, and is even echoed in respected publications like Der SPIEGEL. Additionally, a significant Google DeepMind paper reiterates the defining qualities of AGI, underscoring its potential impact.

A Historical Perspective

Artificial Intelligence represents a groundbreaking technological advancement unparalleled in human history. Technological progress has consistently accelerated since industrialization, as illustrated in the works of Kurzweil and others. From the advent of the steam engine to the rise of motorized cars, television, the Internet, smartphones, and today, AI, each breakthrough has built upon the last, driving exponential growth.

However, the paradigm shift began with the 2017 breakthrough paper by Google DeepMind, “Attention is All You Need.” Prior to this, technological advancements were merely tools to enhance human productivity. AI, in its current form, still operates within this framework, controlled and utilized by humans to boost productivity. The real disruption will come with AGI, which will operate autonomously, reducing the need for human intervention by 90% or more within the next five years.

The Special Feature of AGI

By 2029, as predicted by Kurzweil and echoed by Sam Altman, AGI will reach a level where it can perform tasks autonomously at par with the best human capabilities. This shift will mark the end of human management of AGI. The transition to Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) will further amplify this change, leading to a singularity where machines self-improve at an unprecedented rate without human input.

This evolution represents a historic shift: for the first time, a technology will not merely enhance human productivity but replace human roles entirely. Sam Altman highlighted this in an interview:

“It will mean that 95% of what marketers use agencies, strategists, and creative professionals for today will easily, nearly instantly, and at almost no cost be handled by the AI — and the AI will likely be able to test the creative against real or synthetic customer focus groups for predicting results and optimizing. Again, all free, instant, and nearly perfect. Images, videos, campaign ideas? No problem.” (Sam Altman)

Demis Hassabis of Google DeepMind supports this view, predicting imminent scientific breakthroughs:

“Scientific breakthroughs are around the corner.” (Demis Hassabis)

The Economic Upheaval Begins

In 2024, we will begin to witness significant economic disruptions as AI starts replacing human jobs across various industries. Initially, this will be due to increased productivity through AI, but soon AI will replace humans entirely:

“There will be stories of mass layoffs this year within certain industries, but I don’t think it’s going to be widespread. But you’re going to see some headlines.” (Roetzer)

The Rise of AI Agents and Robotics

Between 2025 and 2027, AI agents will become more prevalent, causing significant disruptions in knowledge work. These agents will perform tasks independently, dissolving traditional workflows and communication chains:

“Roetzer estimates that somewhere between 2025 and 2027 is when we start to see an explosion of AI agents. AI agents are AI systems that can take actions for you.” (Roetzer)

Simultaneously, the integration of AI with robotics will revolutionize industries. Factories operating without human intervention are already being developed, with companies like Tesla and Xiaomi leading the way. The fusion of advanced language models with robotics will accelerate this transformation:

“The true breakthrough is putting the multimodal models into robots to embody intelligence. And so the advancement with these large language models and these AI agents is going to enable a rapid takeoff of robotics.” (Roetzer)

The AGI Revolution

The advent of AGI will mark a turning point in the global economy. As AI and robotics surpass human productivity, efficiency will continue to grow exponentially. This self-referential acceleration will culminate in a moment where human capabilities can no longer compete:

“Once we hit AGI, everything is reset. Once we get here, we are now looking at the reality of wide scale workforce disruption. You’re completely resetting business.” (Roetzer)

Sam Altman predicts that AGI will become a reality within five years, fundamentally altering our economic landscape:

“Altman said that he believes AGI will be a reality in ‘5 years, give or take, maybe slightly longer.’”

Preparing for the Future

We must prepare for this imminent upheaval. Our current state of technology is the worst it will ever be, and we are not adequately prepared for the changes that AGI will bring. Nonetheless, these changes are inevitable, and we must adapt to thrive in the new economic reality shaped by AGI.

In conclusion, the rise of AGI will transform the global economy, bringing about profound changes in how we work and live. As we stand on the brink of this technological revolution, it is crucial to understand and prepare for the seismic shifts that lie ahead.