American Parties after 2016

There are just a few scenarios for what could happen to the American political parties after the 2016 election.

As we saw in this election, we saw the breaking-up if the Republican Party. The Party-media-policy networks nexus has actually fallen apart. The old-school conservative movement of smaller government and market fundamentalism has now little common ground with the white nationalism fuelled by the alt-right media environment.

The Democratic Party is not immune to pressure from the fringes. Bernie Sanders’s campaign also shows the existence of a group that is willing to go even more left of the Democratic mainstream of state action and identity politics.

The last premise we need to bear in mind is that changes do happen. America’s political history is not a straightforward one of Republican vs Democratic for all its entire existence. The policy positions of both parties have also changed drastically over the years. The Republican Party was the party of emancipatory Lincoln, fighting the Democrats who were fighting for slavery to remain in the United States. Things have indeed come a long way since then.

So there are a few possibilities; I list four of them here, generated from a 2x2 matrix. The matrix looks at the coherence and splintering of both the Democrats and the Republicans. From this, we get four outcomes. I add two more outcomes for potential transformations within the parties — if the Republican Party transforms to become a Far-Right only party, and also if the Democratic Party transforms and becomes the Far-Left only party.

So we have the following combinations:

1. BAU;
2. Far-Left Democrat; Centrist Republican;
3. Centrist Democrat; Far-Right Republican/White Nationalists;
4. Splintered Republican — Far-Right + Conservative; Coherent Democrat;
5. Splintered Democrat — Far-Left + Centre-Left; Coherent Republican;
6. Splintered Democrat — Far-Left+ Centre-Left; Far-Right Republican/White Nationalists + Centre-Right Republican

Note that the terms are, somewhat loose.

Red, Orange: Favours Republicans; Blue, Navy: Favours Democrats; Green: Evenly Contested

The most straightforward one is the business-as-usual (BAU) route, where both parties remain as intact entities, though still riven with tensions, but those tensions do not become so much that they overwhelm the coherence of both bodies.

A second scenario is of Democratic unity, and a split in the Republican Party. The GOP splits into the Conservative party taking on small government and market fundamentalism position, and the Alt-Right Party that advocates for White Nationalism of some sort.

A third scenario is of Republican resilience, and instead, a split in the Democratic Party among the far-left and the centre-left. This could still happen, especially if Clinton loses the election.

A fourth scenario is the one in which the Republican Party itself becomes the White Nationalist Party, transformed entirely by the insurgents that have surfaced. In this situation, the Democratic Party becomes the central dominant party, taking on all other positions that the White Nationalist party abdicates.

A fifth scenario is the reverse of the fourth, where it is the Democrats that transform into a even more left-wing party, with the Republicans remaining centrist.

A sixth scenario is one in which both parties splinter into divisions. A far-left party emphasisng even more socialism; a centre-left Bill Clintonian party that balances economic growth with welfare; a centre-right Republican Party advocating for the conservative movement; and the far-right White Nationalist Party. In this situation, American politics becomes more unstable, as the parties form loose coalitions depending on the policy issues. It is not a given that the leftwards party might gel together again, or likewise the rightwards party.