The CCP has achieved a very tight social caging. NGOs are marginalized, and subject to constant surveillance. Labour unions are having a hard time as well, from imprisonment to constant harassment. Religious groups too, are not well-organized or have to go underground. Unless something major really changes, I think the CCP has got it really tight. Even the military seems to become subordinate to the CCP, so military leaders might just accept their rule.

I think even if China becomes some sort of global hegemon, it can only do so for a few decades as India also becomes developed, albeit slowly. And other than China, India’s neighbours are also economically not as developed. Plus, India’s maritime boundaries are more open. India’s social problems are also massive though.

Yeah, isolationist attitudes from major powers are really worrisome for us in Southeast Asia. The hope is that economic ties and legacy historical issues can be enough for the US to stay here. Because if the US leaves, Japan and S. Korea will want to develop their own militaries (even nuclear weapons) and that’s not going to be something that China will look forward to.