Updates and some thoughts on China’s growing

joelfirenze
Jul 21, 2017 · 4 min read

I guess this will be an ongoing thread. 2017 has been a busy year for China’s Navy, or rather, the People’s Liberation Army (Navy), or just the PLAN.

I try to relate recent developments in the military front with the 19th National Congress, and with 2021 — the first of the “Two Centenaries”, which will be on Xi Jinping’s mind. Basically, recent developments especially naval developments can be seen to be part of a larger drive to legitimse the CPC rule, and the fulfillment of the 2021 goal and the “Chinese Dream”.

China launched its second aircraft carrier in April 2017.

And here’s a satellite picture as well.

Apparently, this was taken on the very day — April 26, and the red strings you see at the end of the ski-ramp correspond quite well to the red streamers… And if you can see a black car…

China’s shipbuilding activity isn’t just about floating runways, but also about power projection. China also launched a amphibious transport dock, giving China greater ability to ship big things from point to point.

Anyway, more interesting things have been happening. China is busy in Africa — it is finishing up a naval facility in Djibouti, the same country where the US also has a significant presence (Camp Lemmonier, for US Africa Command). I think the PLAN Djibouti facility is here, but I’m really just guessing…

But not just that, China is building a railway line from Addis Ababa to Djibouti.

China is after all, moving some manufacturing to Ethiopia, and for this to work, Ethiopian goods have to move to a port, and since it’s a landlocked country, and since there are already some links to Djibouti:

What does these all mean?

There are a couple of strands to all these. The thing to consider right in front of us is the 19th National Congress of the CPC, where Xi Jinping looks like he will consolidate his power and choose his successor. To do that he has to make sure that the factions are aligned with him, including the military faction.

At this point in July, there are reports of a standoff between Chinese and Indian forces in the area near to Bhutan.

The rise in Chinese military activity throughout the region represent both external messages — “China as a great power”, and internal messages, “we are efficient organisations” to signal to other factions. We have no visibility on these things, other than the outcome (generals or admirals falling out of favour, etc). But these things are happening.

The second strand is a more long-term one, to do with the first of the “Two Centenaries”.

The first centenary is coming up very soon — in 2021, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party. It is likely to meet its goal, of having doubled GDP per capita from about US$4500 to US$9000. Xi Jinping is going to be seen as the man who has taken China to that end, and he is not going to allow anyone from standing in his way. His life probably depends on it. In China, where nationalism and signs of national greatness have become the only tools of political legitimisation, Xi needs to feel confident that his goals will be attained. In fact the earlier the better. This might be a factor in how the Chinese state is not surrendering control of the economy for fear that losing control might represent departures from that 2021 goal.

This first centenary will probably also have a military component, and Xi must probably also be able to say that he has brought China closer to the fulfillment of the “Chinese Dream”. That could be the Caribbeanisation of the South China Sea or even Southeast Asia — partial control of the First Island Chain southwards from the Philippines.

If this hypothesis is correct, then there will be more military activity until the Q3, when things quieten down to reduce mishaps as the leadership negotiations intensify.

Scalable Analysis

Looking at institutions, systems, and scenarios.

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joelfirenze

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Looking at trends, systems, organizations, politics, industries and how they interact. Contribute to my efforts at www.patreon.com/scalable_analysis.

Scalable Analysis

Looking at institutions, systems, and scenarios.

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