The Mystic Betting Scam: The Mathematics Behind Improbable Events
Why we filter out the bad, forget the losses, and hang on to the good?
Mystic Mail
You open your laptop one morning to find an unopened email by the mystic betting agency. Now normally, you delete these ‘spam’ emails straight away and get on with the rest of your morning but on this particular occasion, you are overcome with a feeling of intrigue and decide to explore the validity of this agency’s mystic claims.
The email reads:
‘Dear reader, thank you for choosing to be a part of our fantastic new project. We hope that we can return the favor using our ability to accurately predict sporting events that you can later bet on before the games. All we ask for is a yearly membership fee of £200 — now you may be asking, how can we substantiate the validity of our claims? Well, let’s give our powers a go shall we… In tonight’s FA Cup tie between Sheffield United and Sunderland, we predict that Sunderland will win the tie!!’
Lo and behold, by half nine that same night, Sunderland had knocked out Sheffield United on penalties. The mystic betting agency got it correct!! but what does this mean? well, it hasn’t shaken your original confidence that mystics are all conmen. After all, lucky…
