COVID-19 and the Global South
By Brady Press and Ben Kickert
With economies across the United States and Europe starting to reopen, some may feel the urgency of the COVID-19 pandemic is behind us. However, current trends seem to be pointing towards an emerging crisis in the Global South. Africa and South America seem particularly at risk as the Southern Hemisphere moves into its winter months. At the same time, Australia and New Zealand seem to have been spared the devastation other nations have faced, but what can we learn from them?
In this article, we explore which trends to look out for and what impact the Global South has faced thus far.
COVID-19 and the Global South
Months-long fears from leaders of the virus spreading to the Global South have become a reality. The World Health Organization declared South America as the “new epicenter” of the virus, with Brazil ranking second highest in number of positive COVID-19 cases per-country. Africa still has a relatively low virus-related death toll, however, 9 African countries had 50% rises in cases in the past week.
Although COVID-19 took longer to spread to the southern hemisphere, its nations are likely to be hit harder than those in the north. These nations have fewer resources to combat the virus and will thus experience greater systemic impacts. Realizing this fear, last week, UN Chief António Guterres emphasized the need for stronger solidarity:
“Many countries have ignored the recommendations of the World Health Organization. As a result, the virus has spread across the world and is now moving into the Global South, where its impact may be even more devastating, and we are risking further spikes and waves.
The most affected individuals should receive help…While developed countries can do this by themselves, we must massively increase the resources available to the developing world.”
As noted by the World Economic Forum, the pandemic is now “rapidly taking-off in Latin America, Africa and South Asia,” despite progress in Western Europe, East Asia and North America. While counted infections, hospitalizations and deaths in these lower and middle income countries is already intense, limited testing in these countries is causing an underestimation of who is affected:
“Owing to a lack of testing, it is likely that the true numbers are significantly higher. The impact of COVID-19 depends not just on national preparedness, but also on the readiness of states and municipalities. What cities in Brazil, Nigeria or India do next will not only determine the health of their residents, but the fate of their national economies.”
How we think about response needs to change as well. The humanitarian organization Direct Relief reminded readers that as the virus spreads to less economically stable areas in the Global South, the context of vulnerability to the virus is different. For instance, people in these countries are at greater risk of experiencing famine or medical shortages. It was reported that 10 African countries do not have any ventilators. In addition, many people in the Global South have compromised immune systems due to high rates of HIV/AIDS. In Africa, 24 million people are currently living with HIV.
Seasonal Influence on COVID-19
Following the patterns of other viruses such as SARS and MERS, which showed seasonality, new research has sparked speculation that the summer heat could slow the spread of the virus, but infectious-disease experts worry that the public will reduce precautions under false notion that the virus cannot spread in warm weather. Evidence of the virus’ reach in warm-weather countries like Singapore, Indonesia, Brazil and Ecuador disproves this theory.
A new working paper and database from Harvard Medical School, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and other institutions shows various weather conditions, including temperature and relative humidity to precipitation, at 3,739 locations across the globe to analyze the “relative COVID-19 risk due to weather.” The study revealed that average temperatures above 77 degrees are associated with a reduction in the virus’s transmission. However, it also showed that rising temperatures are not enough to stop the spread — pointing to the importance of remaining committed to social distancing measures.
In addition, a Washington Post article notes that “the seasonal factors in virus transmission work the other way around, too: A decline in transmission in summer would probably be followed by a seasonal increase in infections in the fall.”
To that point, the Global South is heading into its winter months, which will cause drops in regional temperatures. National Geographic discusses the importance of determining whether coronavirus is seasonal, but also notes that is a question which may take years to answer: “even if COVID-19 cases rise significantly this year as the Southern Hemisphere heads into winter, that alone won’t prove that seasonality is the culprit.” If the virus is seasonal, the Global South may see increases in cases beyond what they would in warmer months. According to the article, seasonal viruses remain in the air and on surfaces for longer. People are also more susceptible to catching viruses in colder weather because of changing respiratory tracts and less vitamin D.
A Deeper Look At South America
As of last Wednesday, Latin America exceeded 5 million COVID-19 cases, surpassing the US and Europe with the largest number of daily cases globally. Of the 91,000 cases reported last week, Latin America had one third versus approximately 20% for both the US and Europe.
The New York Times reported that, as of last Friday:
“Brazil overtook Russia in reporting the second-highest count of infections worldwide, reaching more than 330,000 to date. Peru and Chile rank among the hardest-hit countries in the world in terms of infections per capita, around 1 in 300. And data from Ecuador indicate that the country is suffering one of the worst outbreaks in the world.”
COVID-19 has now spread to every Latin American country, and the virus appears to be spreading faster in Brazil that it did in western countries:
“The number of deaths in Brazil, Mexico and Peru is doubling roughly every two to three weeks, as opposed to about every four months in the UK, four months in France, and seven months in Italy. Deaths in the US are doubling about every two months.”
Sub-Saharan Africa
In Africa, there are mixed signals regarding the spread of the virus. Currently, Africa is the least affected region globally, with only 1.5% of the world’s reported cases and less than 0.1% of deaths. However, there are high infection and death projections. According to BBC, South Africa is projecting at least 40,000 deaths by the end of the year. The information is contained in a report from the South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium.
Earlier this month, WHO released estimates that up to 190,000 could die in Africa if COVID-19 is not controlled. According to Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, the WHO Regional Director for Africa:
“While COVID-19 likely won’t spread as exponentially in Africa as it has elsewhere in the world, it likely will smoulder in transmission hotspots. COVID-19 could become a fixture in our lives for the next several years unless a proactive approach is taken by many governments in the region. We need to test, trace, isolate and treat.”
Since the virus first arrived in the region, it has resulted in over 100,000 cases. Moeti also noted that:
“It is possible [Africa’s] youth dividend is paying off and leading to fewer deaths. But we must not be lulled into complacency as our health systems are fragile and are less able to cope with a sudden increase in cases.”
Despite the number of cases, the situation in Africa is fatal because of its lack of medical infrastructure. A new modelling study by WHO shows that “even with a lower number of cases requiring hospitalization than elsewhere, the medical capacity in much of Africa would be overwhelmed.”
An article from Scientific American notes that the numbers may be higher than reported, too, and underlines the issue of health care in the region:
“According to the Africa Center for Disease Control, testing capacity ranges from 10 tests per 100,000 people in Ethiopia to 280 per 100,000 in South Africa. These pale in comparison to the rate of testing in Western countries such as the United States, New Zealand and even Lithuania.
Beyond limited testing, the bigger problem is the fact that health care facilities currently have grossly inadequate capability to cater for the anticipated number of cases. The poor state of isolation facilities in several African countries discourages symptomatic patients from accessing care. Because of our communal lifestyle, the home-based care reportedly effective in parts of Italy may be useful in rural African communities.”
On top of already inadequate healthcare, African countries are now competing for resources such as testing kits.
All in all, it is not yet clear how the virus will impact Africa. However, The Africa Center for Strategic Studies created categorical maps that show vulnerability by country for the following variables: international exposure, health system, urban density, urban population, population age, government transparency, press freedom, conflict and displacement.
Australia and New Zealand
Aside from concern for the populations of South America and Africa, data shows that Australia and New Zealand have both done an exemplary job in containing the virus’ spread compared to the US, Italy and the UK. As of late April, both countries had a case-death rate just above 1% versus 5.7% in the US and 13.5% in both Italy and the UK. Given their success, Australia and New Zealand have begun to loosen lock down restrictions.
What is different about Australia and New Zealand?
While the US, Italy and the UK are also beginning to re-open, concerns of igniting a “second wave” have emerged. According to Dr. Lesley Russell of the US Studies Center in Sydney, the following differences between Australia and the US’ response to the virus have better positioned Australia in preventing a large scale re-emergence of the virus:
“1. Preparation: Australian leadership empowered its health agencies while the Trump administration has taken a ‘just in time’ approach.
2. Leadership: Australia’s prime minister is taking a backseat to scientists while Trump turned his briefings into campaign events.
3. Testing and contact tracing: Australia has developed a nationwide tracing app and has a surplus of test kits. The US experienced major issues with testing early on.
4. Gaps in the healthcare system: Australia’s universal healthcare and mandatory paid leave grants Australians the freedom to get medical help without entering financial hardship. Many Americans remain worried about the economic costs of getting sick.”
Likewise, New Zealand has been recognized for its effectiveness in containing the spread of COVID-19 within the country almost entirely. NPR discusses the actions that led to this success, including early and proactive quarantine measures from Prime Minister Jacinda Arden and creative communication strategies to inform the public about the virus.
The Future of COVID-19 is Unknown
Despite best efforts from scientists and medical researchers to predict the virus’ patterns, it is too early to known how this virus will unfold in the Global South. It seems probable that the encroaching winter will worsen the effects of the virus, but this will be difficult to distinguish. With fewer resources and less equipped healthcare systems, greater response challenges in South America and Africa are likely. However, lessons from European and US response as well as that of Australia and New Zealand may serve the region well in navigating its own surge. Only time will tell, but support from other countries will be integral in aiding the Global South through this next chapter.
Brady Press is an Associate Director at Changing Our World, where she specializes in building strategic corporate citizenship programs. She is a consultant to SDGCounting and StartingUpGood, and is currently researching how COVID-19 is affecting the Sustainable Development Goals.
Ben Kickert has worked in international development and data analytics for 15 years. He currently works as a consultant providing insights around the Sustainable Development Goals and Impact Investing.
