English Clubs Have a Confidence Issue in Europe
…and no, it’s not a lack of it. It’s time to look in the mirror and honestly assess whether the Premier League’s big boys truly have what it takes to challenge Europe’s elite at their own game.
It’s no secret that after years of dominating the fixture lists of the late rounds of the Champions League, the Premier League’s finest have evaporated from quarterfinal and semifinal involvement in recent years.
2005–2012 Semi-Finals Appearances:
Chelsea x5 (’05, ’07, ’08, ’09, ‘12), Manchester United x4 (’07, ’08, ’09, ‘11), Liverpool x3 (’05, ’07, ‘08), Arsenal x2 (’06, ‘09)
2013–2016 Semi-Finals Appearances:
Chelsea (‘14), Manchester City (‘16)
Condemning right? Well it comes as no surprise that the league’s newly found global fanbase has taken notice and since Tottenham, Arsenal, and Manchester City’s early exits this season, have been demanding answers. Why couldn’t Tottenham, who ravaged the Premier League for the majority of last season on their way to a 3rd place finish (which really should have been 2nd), best two of Monaco, Bayer Leverkusen, or CSKA Moscow and advance from their group? Why couldn’t Arsenal finally show a bit of backbone rather than capitulate to Bayern Munich? Why couldn’t City find the balance between defensive solidity and their favored attacking possession-oriented style boasting a two goal cushion going into the second leg of their Round of 16 tie against an admittedly flawed Monaco team? These are supposed to be the best teams from arguably the world’s most entertaining, competitive league yet they’ve continued to look a cut below the rest and are seldom included in conversations of potential favorites that circle back around this time of the year.
Let’s review a few of the narratives that have been thrown out by players, managers, and journalists as reasons why the league’s european standards have faltered. And while I don’t expect these issues to be resolved any time soon, it’s still reasonable to identify the source(s) of the problem before reacting to fix it. THAT may take years…
Fatigue
Yeah I’m not buying this one. We’ve heard managers (usually foreign ones) complain about the Premier League’s dastardly Christmas/New Years fixture list loooonnng before Jurgen Klopp lamented his Liverpool side’s two day turnaround between matches a few months ago. And though the masses agree it’s a tad over the top, no one in England, let alone the world, is ready to bid farewell to Boxing Day and New Years fixtures. Not to mention most importantly the structure of the league’s fixture list hasn’t changed since that previously mentioned 2005–2012 Golden Era. If teams like Chelsea, Manchester United, and Liverpool could consistently perform up to standards during their domestic campaigns at that time, while simultaneously reaching the quarterfinals and semifinals of the Champions League, what’s stopping today’s teams from doing the same?
Shift in League Parity
Now this can at least be entertained. In order not to risk sounding like the old timer claiming how things were “back in my day” at the ripe young age of twenty-four, I ask you humor me when I say the Premier League top to bottom had nowhere near the same talent and financial stability teams do today. A case can be made that the while the top of the league is as talented today as it was in 2007, the caliber of player regularly seen in the match day squads of mid-table and even relegation teams has progressed considerably. You’ll now see the likes of Burnley, Hull City, and Middlesbrough gain promotion to the league and immediately purchase seasoned internationally capped footballers. As the talent level at mid-table and relegation battling clubs has risen, the attention of the top clubs has been forced to become less scattered amongst multiple competitions. No longer can the likes of Tottenham or Chelsea trot out a noticeably weaker side in consideration of a European fixture in midweek and fully expect to walk away with the three points. If you tried to pull that in 2017, you’d likely be met with a towering Fernando Llorente header, or a composed Jermaine Defoe on the counter, or even the occasional Alvaro Negredo poached finish. Those names strike slightly more fear into the hearts of defenders than the likes of Michael Chopra, David Nugent, or Dave Kitson did “back in the day.”
The argument’s an interesting one, fueled by the very success and consequent cashflow the league’s seen come to Britain’s shores these last few years. But it doesn’t directly explain perhaps the most important difference between the two time-frames: the results on the pitch.
Style of Play
Yeah, yeah I get it. I should’ve led with this one, but why not save the best for last. If we’re going to possibly identify what’s changed since 2012, obviously it’s pivotal we do so on the pitch.
While the league’s always had its fair share of teams who have seen themselves as the bastions of good football at one time or another, we’ve seen a far more noticeable recent trend towards this possession-based, high-pressing style made famous by the likes of Pep Guardiola during his time at all-conquering Barcelona and Jurgen Klopp at Borussia Dortmund. It’s now all the rage to play your defensive line as close to midfield as possible and task your forwards with suffocating the opponent by limiting the space they’d like to use to build possession from the back. While this makes for the entertaining football we’ve seen Manchester City and Liverpool (now the homes of Guardiola and Klopp respectively) play, it’s predicated on forcing your opponent into making mistakes and capitalizing on said mistakes in order to create the best goal scoring opportunities. Meanwhile, there’s still around 45–65% of the time where these very teams are required to create for themselves in possession and break down an opponent whose sole mission is to walk away with a clean sheet. Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, and at times even Tottenham have all played some beautiful stuff in the build up to a few of their goals this season, yet all have failed at times to adapt to face certain opponents, only to pay the consequences in the form of dropped points. What’s worse is that these “upsets” have come at not-so-unpredictable times/matchups where not only the manager but the whole world knows how their opponents intend to set up for success. Yet they disregard stubbornly in order continue “perfecting” their system or their player’s understanding of it.
What’s left are a bunch of teams who like playing their specific brand of football and prefer to have the ball at their feet for a majority of the match. That may be all well and good at Turf Moor as Burnley concede 75% possession, but when faced with the prospect of teams in Europe who enjoy similar control of the tempo, they tend to fall apart.
It’s moments like these where teams need to take a long, hard look in the mirror and truly ask themselves, “Are we good enough to play this way against better teams?” Because as of now it’s not much of an argument that the answer is “no”, yet managers like Pep, Klopp, Pochettino, and yes maybe even the improving Eddie Howe, all present glimmers of hope. Liverpool themselves, while untouched by European football this season, have curiously struggled both with and without possession at different moments of the season.
It may not surprise you that I don’t believe those clubs will accrue the same amount of talent on show at the Bayern’s, Barca’s, or Real’s of the world in order to compete with them. So instead, they’ll choose to press high up the pitch against players far less likely to make mistakes with the ball at their feet. They’ll try to keep possession only to inevitably lose it and soon acquire a taste of their own medicine as they go minute after minute of not getting a touch. For these Premier League teams, not dominating possession leaves them outside of their comfort zone and can easily frustrate them, leading to results like the 5–1 demolitions Bayern inflicted upon Arsenal, or the 3–1 comeback victory by AS Monaco against a Manchester City side that seemed out of their depth.
Now does this mean Leicester City, England’s only quarterfinalists in this year’s competition, or Chelsea in future seasons, are destined for Champions League glory due to their defense-first approach? Of course not, but you can bet they’re both far better equipped to frustrate even the greatest of European powers than any one of their attack-minded peers coming from the Premier League. When you’re just as comfortable without possession as you are with it, there’s no panic when Bayern Munich or Barcelona inevitably control 70% of the possession. There are far fewer meltdowns by your defenders when they are asked to defend, rather than only hold onto the ball, and there’s a confidence instilled in your team that though you may not have the ball for now, you’ll always have a chance or two to topple Goliath before the game is over.
I don’t expect Pep’s City, or Klopp’s Liverpool to suddenly suffer a change of heart or doubt what they’re trying to achieve offensively. But learning along the way how to compete when you’re not the best team on the field by adapting your style isn’t asking too much. Valuing the defensive shape of the side over merely creating a few more chances seems sensible to ask, not damning of the system itself. But Pep will be Pep and Wenger will be Wenger and we’ll end up at this same conclusion next season wondering once again why these “stacked” teams can’t seem to get over the hump.
