Predictions for 2021
I’ve never done a prediction piece before. Probably because I’m scared I’ll no doubt get it wrong. But considering this has been a pretty different year from most, why not start something new now.
The one thing I’ve learned this year is how true it is that emotions drive our actions. When the pandemic first hit, we saw confusion followed by mass hysteria which led to panic buying and fighting for toilet paper.
The initial novelty of this bizarre new world wore off after a few months. We went through a period of despair, followed by hope that a vaccine would be produced quickly.
Countries which thought they were improving indeed were not. Strategies that initially proved effective fell down in a heap. Countries like Australia (where I live) have controlled things well only for new outbreaks to create more uncertainty and time away from loved ones.
For many people, we are crawling to the finish line of a tumultuous 2020. A year we’d rather forget as we slosh back one too many wines with a bite of turkey.
But there is a question about what next year will bring. So here are my thoughts. Will they be right? Who knows, let’s check in again at the end of 2021 and see how I went:
- COVID-19 will enjoy a further resurgence and growth in the new year as people’s complacency is matched with more physical time together over the holiday break. In countries like Australia, it will continue to result in more fast-paced lockdowns to bring it under control and continue to fill the workforce with uncertainty on if they can safely return to the office or not.
- We will remain edgy and over-react to developing economic and health conditions. States will be increasingly tribal and shut each other out, before the true economic cost of ongoing lockdowns sees politicians back-peddling and finger pointing to deflect attention from their own decisions.
- People will realise the complexity of rolling out a vaccine. The initial euphoria around our perceived salvation will subside and create more uncertainty as fewer people opt-in to taking it, meaning we take one step forward and two steps back.
- Organisations with leases still to run will do their best to push people back to the workplace to make use of the office space they’re paying for, however will continue to grapple with a workforce that is now awakened to the optionality of flexible / remote work. As leases come up, organisations will take advantage to decrease their office space.
- Flexible work will become the new battleground for talent. Many organisations will initially resist this as a result of locked-in property contracts, however they will also start to lose key talent as people search for a more flexible working environment. This will in time lead all companies to offer flexibility in how they approach their workforce.
- Consultants / lawyers / investment bankers and similar industries will continue to push for a return to the office as the modus operandi. Small and medium-sized businesses will also see more of their teams returning to the office as they want greater visibility on what their team are doing, and feel they are currently losing control. Large companies will be leaders in flexible work.
- There will be a realisation that physical proximity doesn’t equal great culture. Leading organisations will begin to search deeper for why their people feel the way they do to understand how they can build a sustainable company. Purpose will become increasingly more important for people when they look at which company they want to work for.
- Mental wellbeing and mental health will be the leading focus for all companies in 2021 as they look to support a workforce that has been affected by so many negative forces. As we learn how far the recovery has to go this will only get worse.
