The Conventional Thinking of Globalization

What important truth do very few people agree with you on? — Peter Thiel

Ponder on this question: What important truth do very few people agree with you on?

This question is psychologically difficult because anyone trying to answer must say something she knows to be unpopular. Brilliant thinking is rare, but courage is in shorter supply than genius.

Peter Thiel, in Zero to One, describes the premise by saying,

“Doing what we already know how to do takes the world from 1 to n, adding more of something familiar. When we create something new, we go from 0 to-1. The act of creation is singular, as in the moment of creation, and the result is something fresh and strange.”

What does this question have to do with the future and the current state of globalization? The future is simply the set of moments yet to come that will be different from today. We can’t predict what will happen in the future, but we know that their roots will be formed by what we do in the present.

Going form 1 to n is a horizontal progress. We know what it looks like and can easily imagine it. It’s upgrading a car to go from 40 mpg to 50 mpg. Going from 0-to-1 is a vertical progress. As Peter Thiel describes it, “It means doing new things, that no one has ever done.” The individual doing it in a way, has to have the perfect blend of self delusion and ego to think they can accomplish what no one before them has ever accomplished. It means re-building a new, 0-to-1, car that operates at 500 mpg.

In todays terms, globalization means horizontal progress. Taking what is in the U.S. and doing the same thing in India. The misunderstood thing about globalization is that, without technology, it is actually destructive. If China doubles its energy production, that means it will double its air pollution. If every household in India was to live the same way American households live, it would result in catastrophic waste. Without technology, globalization, i.e. horizontal progress (going from 1-to-n), makes the world worse off. The word synonymous with 0-to-1 is technology. Going from 1 to n doesn’t take much creativity. We can all imagine a “globalized” world where there will be more convergence and every country will have the same things.

So where does this new technology come from? New ventures (or startups). I would consider the Founding Fathers a new venture. A small group of individuals with a sense of purpose to move the world forward by creating something new, moving from 0-to-1. Large groups, be it governments or large businesses, have a hard time moving from 0-to-1 because of many reasons. There are large bureaucracies causing things to move slowly, people are less prone to risk, the objectives are usually short term profits, and adding layers upon layers between the creative folks and the decision makers establishes major obstacles when it comes to innovative ideas. The herd mentality of large organizations (government or business) causes exactly that…a herd mentality. It’s all the same ideas. Conventional thinking is what governs the organizations.

Going from 0-to-1 requires radical ways of thinking. Thoughts that challenge the status quo, that go against convention. That is why the question at the beginning is so important: it forces you to come up with a non-conventional answer and to have the courage to speak about it when the herd is against you.

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