What powers the nuclear fusion revolution?
Is nuclear fusion the most overlooked and misunderstood new energy solution? Might it be key for tackling the climate change challenge? We hosted a roundtable with experts to clarify.
Human activity is responsible for warming the Earth’s atmosphere, oceans, and land by 1.1 degrees Celsius, so says the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a UN–sponsored body dedicated to assessing the science around climate change. This makes the drive to net–zero emissions all the more urgent. As part of The Singularity Group’s (TSG) ongoing commitment to sustainability, we recently convened an internal roundtable of new energy experts: Christofer Mowry, CEO of General Fusion; James Khedari, Portfolio Director: Low Carbon Fuels with Viva Energy; and TSG experts Lars Jaeger and Andres Gujan — as well as our CEO, Evelyne Pflugi, and Head of Research, Aleksandra Gadzala Tirziu, PhD.
Nuclear fusion — the process by which two atomic nuclei combine to form a single heavier one while releasing massive amounts of energy — is moving closer to commercialization. This is driven by what Christofer identifies as a “shift from science to engineering” and related advances in a “set of enabling technologies” — digital control systems, robotics, 3D printing, and advanced materials among them — that previously did not exist. The most important ones are covered by the following Singularity Sectors:
- 3D printing facilitates pulse–processes and high–pressure systems, and, under certain conditions, fluid control, that enable fusion machines to function. Rather than the printing of materials, it is the process that underlines 3D printing that has applications in fusion energy.
- Developments in advanced materials help meet fusion’s demand for superconducting materials. Highly stable materials are also being developed to allow for reactors able to contain fusion plasmas without risk of destruction.
- Automation and control systems, as well as robotics, facilitate the operations and maintenance of fusion reactors.
This confluence of factors makes it likely that we may see the first commercial fusion pilot plants later this decade. Today, there are already upwards of 30 private fusion companies worldwide, with the most advanced companies at a technology readiness level of 4 or 5 on a scale of 1–10, and heading toward 6. From a business perspective this means supply chain revenues are already being generated.
Energy security important factor in the new energy mix
General Fusion, for example, has signed a US$400 million agreement with the United Kingdom to build its Fusion Demonstration Plant at the UK Atomic Energy Authority’s Culham Campus. The project aims to demonstrate that General Fusion’s technology can produce fusion conditions in a power–plant relevant environment, and to measure the economics of the process in an integrated fashion. This is one example of how money is already being spent in the fusion supply chain. Other private fusion companies including TAE Technologies, Commonwealth Fusion, and Tokamak Energy have similarly announced plans to build large fusion machines in the next five years.
Nuclear fusion is promising for a variety of reasons. Unlike for most other new energy solutions, for example, fuel is a non–issue. Most fusion companies use hydrogen as a fuel source, which is available from water; others use boron, which is also broadly abundant. Unlike nuclear fission, fusion technology cannot be weaponized; accidents like Chernobyl and Fukushima are all but impossible, and there is no long–term waste. One of the other, largely underappreciated, attributes of fusion is energy security. As Christofer noted, “When you think about the geopolitics of energy, energy security is an important factor in thinking about what the future energy mix is going to be.”
The world’s first clean baseload solution
Renewables — wind, solar, geothermal — will all have a role to play in the future energy mix, as will storage, including hydrogen. But ultimately, on their own these are not complete solutions. The challenge for renewables, for example, is that they are extremely low density, meaning that they provide limited energy. In Malaysia, for example, solar installations can, on average, produce only four hours of electricity per day. In Singapore, which has no domestic resource for baseload energy, the theoretical maximum amount that can be generated from renewables is less than 50%. Fusion energy can fill this gap. This is especially key from the perspective of climate change, as the battle of climate change will not be won in Europe or in North America, but in the developing world. To achieve that aim, energy security is essential.
Fusion technology is of course not without its challenges. Tritium — a rare form of hydrogen often used in fusion — is not readily found in nature, meaning it has to be produced in large enough volumes to power fusion machines. Fusion also occurs at extremely high temperatures. So high, in fact, that if a fusion machine was left to operate at full power for a year it would destroy itself from the inside-out. This creates challenges if the aim is to build fusion plants capable of operating for decades. How to turn fusion energy into carbon-free electricity in an efficient, economical way is also a hurdle. Arguably, the cost needs to be in the range of $50-$70 megawatt/hour, globally, for fusion technology to be relevant. Efforts are underway to make this possible — and to overcome all other outstanding barriers.
Bottlenecks notwithstanding, we increasingly believe that fusion energy holds immense potential as a future, clean energy source. It is a technology that, together with our experts, TSG will continue to learn about and engage. As our experts agreed, while no fusion company can yet claim that their approach is 100% — a level 10 of technology readiness — if you take enough shots on a goal, one of them is likely to go in. We believe that goal is likely to come sooner than later. And, given today’s climate challenges, it can’t come soon enough.
