Ego, motion & the single-purpose car
While most of us acknowledge not being able to predict the future, none of us can avoid imagining it. Prediction requires a lot of computing, we humans cannot track all the moving parts, our brains can’t account for, or even be aware of, all the trends, developments, actions, reaction, and ripple effects which need to be considered for extrapolating the future state of anything. So for us, thinking about the future, is a game of simplification, ignoring most of the picture, and focusing on few factors which find (..or guess) to be the most significant influencers, maybe this is why we call it deduction. This is all so true when it comes to our autonomous future. I will not be surprised to find out that most people visualize a self-driving car where a human still seats in the driver`s seat holding a newspaper, spread over the steering wheel. This simplification makes perfect sense if you are not working in this industry and your thoughts on this matter are handled in battery-saving-mode, a luxury that automotive professionals do not have. If your professional future is intertwined, in any way, with the future of mobility, thinking about the future is crucial nowadays, for making career decisions, steering the effort of continuous education, choosing sources of inspiration, or just managing a portfolio of stocks.
1998: Don’t get in strangers’ cars, Don’t meet people from the internet
2016: Literally summon strangers from the internet to get in their car.
IMHO, the single most influential factor [on the future state of everything], which is very often overlooked, is human behavior, or more accurately — changes in social contracts. We often imagine a future where novel technologies are deployed, we understand how they change economic fundamentals and we easily image new business models, products, services, and the lifestyle of the people who will live in this future. All too often we assume that the social contracts in this future are the ones we have today, which, in-turns, make our prediction utterly irrelevant. Here is an example- 1998: Don't get in strangers’ cars, Don’t meet people from the internet
2016: Literally summon strangers from the internet to get in their car.
This understanding is of particular importance to automotive executives because human-driven vehicles tend to exhibit human-like behaviors. The car extends the human ability to move fast and carry loads; We all know this feeling of empowerment when a small gesture of our foot makes an engine roar..grrr….exhilarating. So in more aspects than others, when we are dealing with a car today, we are actually dealing with its driver. Did you ever call a cab service, asking for pizza delivery? or tried convincing an Uber driver to lease you his car for a couple of days? why not? well, mostly because a privately owned car inherits some attributes from its driver/owner — a mission statement, a purpose, and an EGO.
Some cars are destined exclusively to carry ride hailers, while other cars will only carry medical supplies; some vans will only pick up and drop off students, while others will exclusively serve the elders; some cars will not work during the weekends, while other cars will only work at night. Don’t get me wrong, I am not trying to ridicule the situation, it makes perfect sense. The driver comes as part of the deal, so while the customer has some control over the car and driver, within the predefined boundaries of the service, the customer cannot suggest a new purpose for the car, well…she probably can suggest some alterations, for the right price, but a customer suggesting to re-purpose the car, ignoring driver’s dinner plans will be considered pretty rude (You are not the boss of ME).
Enters the driver-less car, or should I say the ego-less car? well….not completely ego-less, but we will switch the human ego with a corporate one, derived from the business logic of the fleet operation, which will probably not include any dinner plans. What social contracts have changed as a result? what restrictions were removed? Will we be allowed to extend a ride to a three days rental, or to hop off while commanding the car to its next ride, to our home with our shopping bags and the takeaway dinner? sure, why not, it will even be encouraged, in fact, so much encouraged that the car itself might suggest it.
Imagine this — you are on a business trip to LA, taking an end-of-day robotaxi to the hotel, and, along the way, the taxi is trying to up-sale itself. “Good evening Mrs. Laxer” the voice will say, “It is a wonderful evening…and if you don’t mind me suggesting, we can take a longer way home, and run one of my curated audio-guided tours to Venice beach” .. and after an (AI calculated) pause, the voice will continue “ we will be back at the hotel by 7 PM, at which time I have an open spot for you at this wonderful French bistro”.
As all robotaxis in a certain fleet are one big cyber organism, they will also try to up sale each other. Imagine this — you are in the robotaxi for this first mile and a half between home and the CalTrain, as you do every day. “Good morning Mr. waters” the voice will say, “I’ve noticed you take a taxi, at approximately the same time every day”. Waters says “ ok…“, Taxi: “So I just wanted to let you know that customers who have a fixed routine, [which makes our fleet operation more predictable] can purchase a monthly plan which is 20% cheaper than your current spending on morning commute ”. More dramatic than their mutual business interest is the fact that these cars tend to gossip, once a car catches a piece of information, it is shared across the fleet, possibilities are endless.
Need to move a party of twelve? No worries..these cars can work together, just like bees in a hive, and platoon to create a virtual limo (made of 3 robocars), for you and your friends [a quick search for related patents will show you just how real this is]. Going back to the idea of multiple purposes, a specific car could take a commuter from A to B, then a parcel from B to C, Two Pizza boxes from C to D, and then retire to location E for some R&R (Recharge and Refresh). Let’s take it up a natch — a robocar could take few people in a carpool from A and B to C and D, while carrying few parcels in the trunk and a lost item of an early morning passenger, to be delivered to his office downtown, when the fleet optimization algorithm will allow.
Makes sense ? not so much?.. well I cannot predict the future, but I also cannot avoid imagining it.
