Why the Future Won’t Be Autonomous
By: Caleb Jeanniton
The conversation surrounding the future of driving has primarily been one-sided. Sure, there are people who don’t trust the technology and others who would rather drive themselves, but these people represent a minority in discussion. Those who form the majority in favor of an autonomous future ask questions like “when?” and “how?” rather than “will?” For example, there’s no shortage of speculation surrounding the timeline for the mass proliferation of autonomous vehicles, but rarely do I come across an opinion questioning the “inevitability” of such a future.
In comes Wes Lutz, a chairman of the National Automobile Dealers Association. At a recent conference, Lutz expressed his reservations towards jumping on board with full autonomy. Here are his three reasons why an autonomous future is not set in stone.
Lack of Data
A cornerstone in the argument for fully autonomous vehicles is the promise for improved safety. There are numerous projections claiming that removing the human driver will dramatically decrease the margin for driving error. After all, this claim appears to make sense because computers are generally less likely to make mistakes. Lutz, on the other hand, pushes back on this assumption because “self-driving vehicles are theoretically safer. But we don’t know if they are actually safer. And we don’t know because there just isn’t anywhere near enough data to prove it one way or another” (Bloomberg).
Expensive Lifestyle
In the same vein as decreasing driving error, the prospect of saving money through the use of ride sharing needs to be examined further. An AAA report found that the annual cost of ride sharing services like Uber and Lyft is around $20,118 compared to the $10,049 it costs to own a car (Bloomberg). Clearly, this cost differs on an individual basis, but the contrast in the figures should be enough to raise more questions about affordability in an autonomous future.
Heavy Traffic
Lutz’s final concern is the with the argument that traffic congestion will fall with rise in autonomous vehicles. The thinking behind this claim comes from the belief that computers will drive more efficiently than humans and therefore cut down traffic. This vision is not realistic to people like Lutz because, according to him, those who embrace ride sharing are those who would otherwise use public transportation, ride bikes, or simply walk. This results in less people on public transportation and more people in cars on the roads. It will be interesting to see whether autonomous ride sharing will replace car ownership and actually reduce the number of cars on the road.
Although Wes Lutz may appear resistant to the changing times (he does work in the industry that promotes car ownership), his concerns are valid and offer a different perspective in the autonomous conversation.
Read more about Wes Lutz and his opinions here:
