№1 The Law of Accelerating Returns means that human progress is moving faster as time goes on. It may not feel that way but what we know today could vastly change in as little as the next 30 years.
Pause For Thought: Does this mean we ignore humanity’s longest compilation of experiments, history?
This quote was in the context of predicting progress. It’s intuitive to think linearly (whatever progress was made in 20th century will be the same in 21st) vs exponentially (progress moving more rapidly than I am able to find mathematical symbols for on medium).