Final Four Preview
Two weeks ago, Villanova was favored to win the NCAA tournament according to B/R, and we were looking at a field of top heavy 1 seeds and 2 seeds dominating. We still do have two 1-seeds in the Final Four, but other than those two the other higher seeds have floundered. Duke lost to South Carolina, Nova was beat by Wisco, etc. Many feel this has a lot to do with the mis-seeding by the selection committee, but in my opinion that’s just how it goes in March Madness. Yes, Minnesota shouldn’t have been higher than Wisconsin, and if you’re like me living in New York you probably still haven’t been able to stop hearing Syracuse fans talk about their 2–8 road record being snubbed from the tournament. However, the tournament brings out the absolute best in some teams, and sometimes the worst in others (ex: Xavier’s abysmal February and excellent tournament run, and Duke’s dominant season compared to their lack of a run). This post-season has also been filled with a great amount of close games, although for some reason everyone wants to complain about the lack of buzzer beaters aside from Florida over Wisconsin. What about the 3 games determined by one possession on the first night of the Sweet Sixteen? (Zags v WVU, Oregon v Michigan, Xavier v Arizona) as well as all the great upsets before that? (Michigan over Louisville, URI advancing to 32, narrowly losing to Oregon, etc.) All in all, there have been many complaints about the selection committee’s seeding and the lack of “Buzzer-beaters” but this March has been absolutely insane, and most certainly should not be complained about, but anyways lets get into the picks.
South Carolina v Gonzaga
Statistically, Gonzaga dominates this game. They score more, they allow less to be scored against them, they shoot almost 51% from the field, as well as having the dominant point guard in Williams-Goss and the dual threat presence of the next Polish Gazelle in Karnowski down low. South Carolina could pose a serious threat however, if their star point guard, Thronwell, can lock down Williams-Goss. The South Carolina defense has been very impressive this run, and if Gonzaga gets into foul trouble again like they did last week, they’re going to be in trouble. If the Cocks can draw fouls early and force Gonzaga’s hand, they will be the ones who win a defensive standoff. South Carolina has made a dream run this far, and most certainly will not go down without a fight in the Final Four.
Odds: Gonzaga-6.5, O/U 138.5
Picks: The Cocks will battle to the end, and if they’re still given 6.5 by gametime I’m taking it. If you bet the under you don’t like basketball.
Oregon v UNC
I’m gonna come out right now and admit to it, I don’t like Oregon. From their stupid basketball court to Dylan Ennis’ hairstyle that he stole from 2014 Wiz Khalifa, they’re just doing too much. They also selfishly and disrespectfully beat a team that survived a plane crash. Seriously? Have some class, Ducks.
They also play in the PAC-12, the conference of Arizona (lost to an 11-seed) and UCLA(Lonzo Ball was shut down by De’aaron Fox) although this plays to their advantage this year since the ACC and Big Ten are officially deceased. They are, however, a great basketball team, and have all the ingredients to make a championship team. Dillon Brooks is the real deal, and I also think Dylan Ennis will make a big impact on this game by utilizing his outstanding athleticism and feel for the game. UNC will most likely be game-planning around Tyler Dorsey who has been on fire this tournament, averaging 24.5 points per game in the postseason. This is a huge question mark for the UNC defense, and if they don’t try to defend Dorsey adequately on this hot streak, hes going to make UNC pay big time.
The only thing that will stop this team from reaching their championship potential, is the fact that they’re playing UNC. After losing the national championship last year, this team is determined to get there again, and most likely win. UNC wins in terms of matchups, and although he has been known to make big mistakes, expect Kennedy Meeks to dominate this game, demanding attention and allowing Joel Berry II and Justin Jackson to light up the floor. Although Oregon will obviously gameplan around ACC player of the year Jackson, if they focus on him too much, Kennedy will punish them, both on rebounds and the scoreboard, despite the fact that he’s not known for his scoring.
UNC is a dominant team that is determined to avenge last year’s loss, has all the pieces in terms of players, (dominant big man in Meeks, floor general in Berry II and star in Justin Jackson) and is coached by one of the best. Oregon is a great team and as most Final Four matchups are, it will be intense and very back and forth.
Odds: UNC -4.5 O/U: 152.5
Picks: If this drops anymore by gametime, UNC will cover, but I could easily see this being a one possession game. If both teams score their season average, the score would be 164, yes season averages are higher, but not by more than 10 points. I’m taking the over on this one as well.
-Shane M. Tully
