Bottom-up or Top-down: Are we on the road to decarbonizing our future?
Recall your favorite childhood nature picture book. Imagine that double page spread and the illustrations of animal-filled forests that popped out at you after turning the first page. Remember how your imagination went wild as with each page turn you discovered a new form of life nestled in a different part of the tropical forest ecosystem. Now, imagine there had been no forest to inspire those drawings; imagine those pages had been filled with repetitive interpretations of desolate desert.
Recall sixth grade geography class and the beautiful National Geographic photographs used to exemplify the world’s biomes. Imagine the images of the lush green tapestry of the Amazon Rainforest used to characterize the rich biodiversity of the forest biome. Remember the curiosity you felt at seeing how tiny leaf-cutter ants, howling monkeys, and jaguars all lived under the shelter of the giant canopy trees. Now, imagine that biodiverse scenery replaced by the images of the barren, cracked African Savanna floor.
Imagine a dream replaced by a nightmare. Yet this nightmare could become true: even moderate climate change scenarios that project the ecological responses to changes in temperature foresee the conversion of tropical forests into dry grasslands.
In 2015, however, two landmark events gave us hope that this nightmare would be avoided: the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement reached at COP21. Both the SDGs and the Paris Agreement were ratified by the 193 member states of the United Nations and are a demonstration of global commitment to climate action.
Science has undoubtedly shown that climate change is happening. Amongst the underlying causes of climate change is the burning of fossil fuels to power the global economy. Since the industrial revolution, the world’s industrial energy matrices have relied on coal, oil, and natural gas: three carbon-based, non-renewable sources of energy that emit greenhouse gases when burned. The SDGs and the Paris Agreement are the first global recognition for the urgent need to cut-down on greenhouse gas emissions and rethink our energy matrixes.
As 2015 reached a close and society at large gleefully celebrated end of year festivities, the environmental community was split: some shared the joy, applauding the COP21 results, whilst others ended the year in disappointment. For those who stood in the middle, like myself, perhaps the start of 2016 has made them sway towards pessimism.
SPILLS AND SHAKES
This tweet resulted in a global outcry. By then, the spill was no news for people in Peru, it had already been making headlines for two weeks. To me, the spill was no news at all.
Oil spills in the Amazon occur on a regular basis and are easily hidden by the dense foliage and isolation of the rainforest. Confused by the unusual level of media attention, I reached out to an environmental human rights lawyer friend. I asked her what she thought about the spill’s coverage. Her response resonated with me: “Seriously, it is funny how I didn’t even notice that the public was reacting so much more strongly to this one because every few weeks I get an email about a spill and to me they are all a big deal!”
The impacts of recurring spills due to oil exploration activities in the Amazon on indigenous peoples’ health has yet to be thoroughly documented. Case studies, though, are beginning to shed light on the matter. For example, it has been shown that Occidental Petroleum’s activities along the Rio Corrientes have had health impacts for the Achuar peoples: the lead levels in children’s blood are beyond WHO permissible limits. Emerging empirical evidence is also beginning to showcase the permanent scars that the natural resource extraction industry is having on not only human health, but also on the ecosystem health. In the Western Amazon, a study concludes that lead, mercury, and cadmium along Amazon River tributaries have surpassed admissible levels by Peruvian standards. In just thirty years since the start of oil exploration in this area, we have put at risk a uniquely biodiverse ecosystem and vulnerable people’s health.
But one needs not go to the Amazon to see the impact of oil drilling in vulnerable communities. A month after the Amazon tweet, Leonardo’s STAND_LA tweet aimed to raise awareness about oil drilling happening in people’s backyards in South East Los Angeles, less than a hundred kilometers from the famous Hollywood mansions. A legacy from the 1930’s oil boom, thousands of oil drills remain active in low-income neighborhoods, posing a public health threat to over 580,000 Angelenos who live less than a quarter mile from wells.
In North America another extractive process of fossil fuels on people’s land is even more worrisome. Hydraulic fracturing, more commonly referred to as fracking, is the process by which natural gas buried deep in the shales is extracted. Advances in drilling technologies led to a fracking boom in the United States: in just a decade shale-gas production increased by a factor of twelve. Using a mix of vertical and horizontal drilling, huge volumes of water and a chemical sand mix are used to inject pressure on the rock. The shale rock eventually cracks, freeing the methane gas that then flows up into the well.
Shale gas was initially touted as the “ecological” fossil fuel because burning natural gas produces half as much carbon dioxide than burning coal. Now, though, after more than a decade of activity, signs of potential risks are beginning to appear. Risks associated to fracking include the pollution of streams and groundwater from leakage of wastewater ponds, the contamination of groundwater aquifers due to faulty wells, and the migration of pollutants due to fissures. Seemingly sci-fi anecdotes of fizzing tap-water in fracking communities are a physical sign of these risk and a demonstration of the uncertain public health safety of fracking activities for local residents.
In case potentially polluting precious fresh water resources and rising public health concerns threats were not enough to question the ecological and human health impacts of fracking, perhaps human-induced earthquakes will be. A recent U.S. Geological Survey report on earthquake hazards concludes that the injecting of fracking wastewater back into the shale is putting 7 million American in the central and eastern United States at risk of experiencing a tremor. For example, in Oklahoma, from 1950 to 2050, an average of 1.5 earthquake with a magnitude greater than 3.0 were recorded a year. Since fracking began, the figure is up well into the several hundred.
The February Amazon oil spill and the March report of the increase in human-induced shakes in the United States, are just two examples of the risks associated to our fossil fuel dependence that made recent headlines. Recurring news stories such as these make it difficult to believe the decarbonization of the global economy alluded to in the top-down Paris Agreement. Yet, bottom-up movements restore some hope.
SWEATPANTS AND SUITS
350.org began in 2007 as a campus movement that quickly grew to a global campaign, mobilizing thousands of people across the world. In 2011, 350.org launched the Go Fossil Free: Divest from Fossil Fuels! Campaign. Fossil Fuel divestment is a voluntary decision to remove fossil fuels from investment portfolios. The premise goes that “if it is wrong to wreck the climate, then it is wrong to profit from that wreckage”. The campaign is primarily directed to institutions that serve the public. If these institutions take care of the public’s present interests, then they should also act responsibly for their future.
In just five years, the divestment movement has led cities like the City of Copenhagen, to universities such as Stanford, and funds such as Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, to exclude fossil fuel companies from their investments. Arguments for divesting have been primarily based on ethics, stating that investment policies should be morally sound and serve the needs of the future. More recently, however, the economic value of divestment has also become apparent, due to the plummeting value of fossil fuel holdings. Consequently, investors are beginning to look at the renewable energy sector as a more sustainable and profitable investment alternative.
Whilst the divestment movement is a grassroots, camp-out, hunger-strike, sweatpants-wearing, protest student movement, similar “community-led” movements under different disguises are happening across the spectrum of society. At the other end of the spectrum from the student community is the suit-wearing business community. On the road to Paris, a number of private sector initiatives also show cased their efforts to building a low-carbon future, organizing private sector coalitions, calling for prompt climate action.
One example of a private-sector initiative is RE100, a global initiative that aims to commit influential businesses to 100% renewable electricity. According to RE100, “the private sector accounts for half of the world’s electricity consumption. Switching this demand to renewables will accelerate the transformation of the global energy market and aid the transition to a low carbon economy”. By January 2015, RE100 had 15 companies on board. By January 2016, the number rose to 50 companies who are expected to meet, on average, 80% renewables by 2020.
In essence, both the fossil fuel divestment movement and RE100 aim to create a buzz about the same thing: energy. They are a demonstration that different sectors across society are tired of waiting for top-down government policies to spur the changes needed to tackle climate change. Most of all they are a demonstration that we are at a pivotal time in history, a ten year window where climate action becomes real or the world as we know it slowly falls into self-destruction.
THE ROAD AHEAD
What will nature picture books or sixth grade geography classes look like in 2116? April 22nd 2016 will define the future fate of the Amazon rainforest.
Tomorrow, on Earth Day, April 22nd 2016, parties, several represented by their heads of state, will meet at the United Nations headquarters in New York City to sign the Paris Agreement. Even though the final draft of the Paris Agreement was approved in December, over the last four months it has been receiving national legislative approval for ratification. For the agreement to go into force, at least 55 member states, representing 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions, must sign the document. Currently, 130 countries are expected to sign the Paris Agreement. If so, it would surpass the number of signatories to any other international agreement.
Will we avert global climate change and the resulting ecological disasters? Probably not. Will the top-down Paris Agreement and SDGs slow down the process? Hopefully yes. As we move through these years of transition, we must look towards and strengthen those bottom-up approaches already redefining our future.
Climate change can only be averted if we experience a rapid rate of systemic change that will result in a dramatic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Shifting to renewable energies for fueling our global economy is a key part of the equation. Collectively, actions from communities highlighting the impact of fossil fuel extraction on their wellbeing, to students protesting, and businesses redesigning the way they operate, amongst other local actions, are signs of hope.
To shift from hope to reality, as global citizens, we must all become part of the momentum and lead by example. Be it from a simple online action like signing a petition, to becoming actively involved in a campaign, or installing change in an institution, like Margret Mead said, “never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it’s the only thing that ever has.”
